Calvin Ridley’s breakout week little more than a fantasy football mirage

We’ve ne'er been stranded successful a desert. But we’ve seen “Breaking Bad” and “Better Call Saul,” and location are plentifulness of real-world photos of sandy hellscapes that we person a vague consciousness of really miserable it would be. 

The Madman besides understands that uncovering an oasis successful specified an situation would beryllium a euphoric moment. In a oversea of arid agony, you hap to find a splashy haven of relief? In nan words of aged Toyota commercials from our childhood: Oh, what a feeling! 

Certainly, it would beryllium almost arsenic refreshing arsenic a large crippled from Titans wide receiver Calvin Ridley, right? Because, that happens astir arsenic seldom arsenic uncovering a godforsaken oasis. Only … 

Not each oases are real. Some are a mirage. Is Ridley’s monster crippled Sunday — 10 receptions for 143 yards — a motion of things to come? A return to 2020 form? Or alternatively of a refreshing imagination excavation successful nan mediate of desolate performances, is this a puddle of mud, providing nary semipermanent imagination relief? 

To get a glimpse into nan Ridley future, we are going to look into nan past — since past capacity is nan astir reliable parameter of early performance. And that past gets beautiful muddy. 

With nan Falcons successful 2020, we sewage highest Ridley — he vanished arsenic WR5 connected nan play and had conscionable 3 dud games (weeks extracurricular nan apical 30 WRs). How did he travel up that good campaign? 

Ridley was atrocious to commencement 2021 — WR48 aft 7 games earlier stepping distant for “mental wellness reasons.” While connected hiatus, he was past suspended for gambling arsenic well. He didn’t return to nan section until past play pinch nan Jaguars. 

After going a year-and-a-half without playing, nan astir comparable type of Ridley to usage arsenic a ground for early projections is his 2023 season. 

He was conscionable OK pinch nan Jaguars that year, vanished WR18 connected nan season. Yet, he had conscionable six games erstwhile he vanished successful nan apical 12 of WRs for nan week. He had 10 others that were duds (outside nan apical 30). 

That grade of quality successful capacity is arsenic utmost arsenic nan godforsaken heat. In six “good” games, he averaged WR7. In nan different 11, he averaged WR55. That could beryllium useful info if location were an identifying adaptable that allowed america to forecast which type of Ridley we were going to get, and we haven’t yet recovered that variable, that “tell” that allows america to foresee a bully aliases bad crippled earlier it happens. 

Ridley’s boom-or-bust quality hasn’t changed this season. He has 2 games successful nan apical 12, and nan different 5 are each extracurricular nan apical 45. 

If that accordant inconsistency doesn’t make forecasting difficult enough, identifying that cardinal statistical “tell” is harder because past play he was pinch a different team, successful an discourtesy that scored 23 percent much than nan 1 he is successful now, and pinch a much established quarterback. 

Some foresee an optimistic Ridley future, which implies much consistency. One of nan theories successful this vein is that he is going to activity amended arsenic agelong arsenic Mason Rudolph is QB, alternatively than Will Levis. But Rudolph doesn’t person a history of producing start-worthy imagination WRs — champion being a partial manus successful Diontae Johnson finishing WR39 for nan 2019 Steelers. 

There is simply a thought nan waste and acquisition of DeAndre Hopkins will unfastened up targets, but Hopkins wasn’t getting a wealthiness of targets — 24 full complete 7 games. Plus, being nan team’s apical WR options invites much protect attention, truthful it isn’t each thenar trees and waterfalls. 

And nary of that erases Ridley’s history. We spot that players tin mimic accumulation of nan caller past. We person overmuch little assurance they abruptly tin do thing dramatically different than they person successful caller years. 

Sure, Ridley had a awesome crippled Sunday. But we’re assured he will person much single-digit imagination days nan remainder of nan measurement than he will 20-plus games. 

Week 8? That is conscionable a mirage.

Up, up and away! 

Raheem Mostert RB, Dolphins 

He led nan convention successful touchdowns past season. He gets double-digit touches almost each game. The discourtesy is live again pinch QB Tua Tagovailoa back. How is he connected adjacent to 25 percent of waiver wires? 

John Metchie III WR, Texans 

Stefon Diggs could beryllium retired a while pinch a knee injury. Nico Collins isn’t expected backmost until Week 10. Metchie could beryllium a bully one-week filler option. TE Dalton Schultz gets a bump, too. 

Josh Downs WR, Colts 

Came up an inch short of being a 28.2 PPR crippled alternatively of 22.2. If he is getting downfield looks complete Alex Pierce, past Downs has worth moreover successful a low-volume, low-efficiency passing game. 

Elijah Moore WR, Browns 

Led nan Browns successful targets. Just down Cedric Tillman connected nan Jameis Winston Fantasy Boost Scale. 

Gonna beryllium a bumpy ride 

Baker Mayfield QB, Buccaneers 

Had a good crippled contempt missing his apical 2 WRs. Way to go, Baker. Alas, we don’t deliberation it will last. Temper expectations until Mike Evans returns. 

Kareem Hunt RB, Chiefs 

Surprised he is dominating nan backfield work. Not amazed nan ratio is weak. You could find immoderate waste and acquisition worth based connected his measurement correct now, earlier talk of Isiah Pacheco’s return ramps up. 

Jordan Mason RB, 49ers 

This isn’t truthful overmuch astir a enarthrosis wounded that reportedly isn’t serious. But nan 49ers person a bye successful Week 9, past Christian McCaffrey could return successful Week 10. If you person CMC, support Mason arsenic a handcuff. If not, effort to waste and acquisition him to nan head who does person CMC. 

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Jayden Reed WR, Packers 

If Jordan Love misses clip pinch his groin problem and Malik Willis takes complete again, conscionable glimpse backmost astatine Weeks 2-3 to callback really nan Packers WR corps’ imagination accumulation suffered.