‘World’s most accurate economist’ predicts Trump victory in 2024 presidential election

The “world’s astir meticulous economist” is predicting Donald Trump will triumph nan presidency and that Republicans are apt to return afloat power of Congress connected Nov. 5.

Christophe Barraud, nan main economist and strategist astatine Market Securities Monaco, besides says a Trump triumph could boost nan system short-term but airs longer-term complications, peculiarly pinch nan soaring deficit.

“Looking astatine different metrics specified arsenic betting markets, polls, predetermination modelers’ forecasts, financial markets, arsenic of now, nan astir probable outcomes are: [1] #Trump triumph [2] #GOP cleanable sweep,” Barraud wrote connected X.

Barraud, 38, has been classed arsenic nan champion economical forecaster for nan US system successful 11 of nan past 12 years by Bloomberg — earning him nan nickname “world’s astir meticulous economist.”

The French economist said each signs constituent to a Trump triumph and a GOP Senate takeover, and while nan House of Representatives could beryllium much tricky for Republicans to control, arsenic of now, it appears they will beryllium victorious.

But if Vice President Kamala Harris wins nan presidency, location will apt beryllium a continuation of nan status-quo divided power of Congress, Barraud said during an question and reply pinch Business Insider.

If Trump wins and for immoderate logic power of Congress splits betwixt nan parties, he would spot overmuch of his domestic-economic schedule stalled and truthful would apt attraction connected tariffs, thing that could slow nan US system semipermanent and hamper world growth, nan master added.

In what Barraud views arsenic nan astir apt script — a Republican expanse of nan White House and Congress — he past sees a gross home merchandise bump betwixt astir 2.1% and 2.3% successful 2025.

Regardless of who is successful nan White House, nan US system would apt hum along, astatine slightest successful nan short term, Barraud said.

Still, a awesome imaginable consequence pinch Trump is that he slashes taxes without a intends of paying for it and frankincense explodes nan deficit, Barraud said.

He said he believes nan 10-year Treasury Bond output would initially jump to 4.5%, up from astir 4.29%, nether Trump. From there, he believes it will tick up to astir 5%.

Barraud believes that overall, a Trump White House would mean nan US GDP would apt outpace astir statement forecasts that expect 2.6% maturation successful 2024 and 1.8% successful 2025.

The astir caller polls mostly show nan statesmanlike title presently arsenic a toss-up contest, though Trump leads successful nan RealClearPolitics aggregate of nationalist polling and battleground-state polling.

So-called predetermination “Nostradamus” historiographer Dr. Allan Lichtman, who has predicted 9 retired of nan 10 past elections, is betting connected Harris to propulsion disconnected nan win.

Famed polling information guru Nate Silver has indicated that his gut says Trump will win. The predetermination is conscionable 8 days away.