Will people leave Florida after devastating hurricanes? History suggests not

ORLANDO, Fla. -- The news rippled done Treasure Island, Florida, almost for illustration a 3rd storm: The politician planned to move disconnected nan obstruction land a period aft Hurricane Helene flooded tens of thousands of homes on nan Gulf Coast and 2 weeks aft Hurricane Milton besides ravaged nan state.

Mayor Tyler Payne's location had been flooded and damaged beyond repair, he explained successful a connection to Treasure Island residents, and he and his hubby can't spend to rebuild. He besides was stepping down arsenic mayor.

“While it pains my bosom to make this determination successful nan midst of our betterment from Hurricanes Helene and Milton, this is nan champion determination for maine and my family,” Payne, who had held nan agency for much than 3 years and was a fourth-generation Treasure Island resident, said Monday.

Up and down Florida's storm-battered Gulf Coast, residents are making nan aforesaid calculations astir whether they should enactment aliases go. Can they spend to rebuild? What will security cover? People considering moving to Florida are contemplating whether it's worthy nan consequence to travel to a hurricane-prone state.

These existential questions astir Florida's entreaty are raised regularly aft nan authorities experiences a engaged hurricane season, specified arsenic successful 2004, erstwhile 4 hurricanes crossed nan Sunshine State.

If moves into nan authorities connection immoderate answer, past hurricanes person served small arsenic deterrents. Florida's organization has grown by one-third to 23 cardinal residents successful nan 2 decades since Charley, Frances, Jeanne and Ivan ravaged nan state. Last year, Florida added much than 365,000 residents, 2nd only to Texas among states.

On nan different hand, location are signs that Florida's white-hot existent property marketplace has cooled. Sales of single-family homes were down 12% successful September compared pinch nan aforesaid clip successful nan erstwhile year. But liking rates, rising location prices and skyrocketing security costs apt played bigger roles than nan caller hurricanes.

“Florida recovers overmuch faster than you think,” said Brad O'Connor, main economist for Florida Realtors.

Studies of hurricanes on nan Gulf Coast person shown that immoderate outbound migration tends to beryllium short-lived, and if group do leave, it's usually a short-distance move, specified arsenic from a obstruction land to nan mainland. Older group pinch much financial resources are much apt to return to devastated communities.

When it comes to nan lodging market, location whitethorn beryllium an first daze to nan proviso arsenic homeowners hold for reimbursement from security companies to hole up their homes aliases waste them.

But successful nan 3 years aft a hurricane, location prices successful areas of Florida that were deed by 1 are 5% higher connected mean than elsewhere successful nan authorities because of smaller supply, according to a study of nan effect of hurricanes connected Florida’s lodging marketplace from 2000 to 2016. New homeowners thin to beryllium richer than erstwhile ones since wealthier buyers tin sorb value increases.

Other factors that find really quickly communities bounce backmost see whether homes were insured, nan velocity of security reimbursements and whether location are capable building workers. Because of stricter building codes implemented successful nan years aft Hurricane Andrew devastated South Florida successful 1992, newer homes withstand hurricanes amended than older ones, O'Connor said.

“If a spot is damaged and uninsured, and nan homeowner says, ‘I don’t want to woody pinch this,’ location are ever group consenting to scoop up that spot because it’s valuable land,” he said. "People build caller homes nether nan caller codes and there’s little of an effect from hurricanes.”

Recent storms connection examples what happens to communities, some short word and longer term.

In Lee County, location to Fort Myers, Hurricane Ian made landfall 2 years agone successful what had been 1 of nan fastest increasing parts of nan United States. Population maturation slowed afterward to 1.5% from 4.4% earlier nan storm. The number of households dropped from astir 340,000 to astir 326,000, according to nan U.S. Census Bureau.

In 2019, three-quarters of each United Van Lines motortruck moves were into Lee County and a 4th were outbound, but that dropped to two-thirds inbound and a 3rd outbound successful 2023 to 2024, nan institution told The Associated Press.

The stock of group successful their precocious 20s, 30s and early 40s increased, arsenic did nan stock of men pinch nary spouse aliases partner, reflecting an influx of building and betterment workers. The stock of nan achromatic organization dropped while it accrued for nan Hispanic community. The percent of inferior and proscription workers successful nan region jumped, according to nan Census Bureau.

Bay County successful nan Florida Panhandle, where Michael made landfall arsenic nan first Category 5 hurricane connected nan continental U.S. successful a 4th period successful 2018, offers a image of longer word trends. Four years later, Bay County had recovered its pre-hurricane population, which dropped almost 6% successful nan twelvemonth aft nan storm.

Since Michael, nan region has grown much diverse, wealthier and older, pinch nan median property rising from 39.6 to 41.4 and much group identifying arsenic multiracial aliases Hispanic. The stock of households earning $200,000 aliases much went from 4.3% earlier nan hurricane to 8.3% successful 2022 successful a motion that immoderate of nan slightest able residents couldn't spend to rebuild aliases return.

In his connection to constituents, Payne said he would still enactment connected to nan Treasure Island organization because his parents scheme to rebuild connected nan obstruction island, 1 of a drawstring of formation towns on nan Gulf of Mexico westbound of St. Petersburg known for motels, restaurants and bars lining nan street. Payne, an lawyer who besides is an executive successful his family's eyeglass-lenses manufacturing business, said successful his connection that his determination to move was “difficult.”

“I wholly empathize pinch nan difficult decisions that are facing truthful galore of our residents,” Payne said.

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Associated Press newsman Curt Anderson successful Belleair Beach, Florida, contributed to this report.

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Follow Mike Schneider connected nan societal level X: @MikeSchneiderAP.