Will Elon Musk impact who wins Pennsylvania? Experts weigh in.

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Elon Musk, nan world's richest person, has built a immense run instrumentality successful support of erstwhile President Donald Trump, including a multi-billion dollar door-knocking operation, a societal media megaphone and a $1 cardinal sweepstakes for battleground voters.

Despite its wide-ranging scope, nan cognition holds a clear focus: Pennsylvania.

In caller weeks, Musk has held town halls crossed nan state, touting its perchance decisive domiciled successful nan outcome. In betwixt appearances, he has posted updates astir early voting totals and misleading election-related posts connected societal media level X, which he owns.

"The logic I'm present successful personification is because Pennsylvania is truthful important to nan early of nan world," Musk told a crowd past period successful Folsom, a Philadelphia suburb of astir 8,500 people.

It's unclear, however, whether Musk's splashy, deep-pocketed task will meaningfully effect nan result of nan title successful nan captious state, according to experts successful run finance and electoral authorities who said pinch ABC News.

Musk jumped into discussing nan predetermination pinch conscionable a fistful of months until Election Day, taking purpose astatine a authorities saturated pinch governmental advertizing and get-out-the-vote operations, experts said. While Musk's spending has proven immense, truthful excessively has nan backing successful support of Vice President Kamala Harris, they added.

Still, nan precocious burst of spending and nan entreaty of Musk among immoderate young antheral voters could move nan needle a smidge successful support of Trump, and that whitethorn beryllium decisive successful nan tightly contested state, nan experts said. The 538 polling average of Pennsylvania surveys reveals nan authorities to beryllium a dormant heat, pinch Trump clinging to a lead of 0.1 percent points.

Michael Kang, a rule professor astatine Northwestern University who focuses connected run finance, said Musk's efforts would not a important effect but could still beryllium decisive since nan authorities is truthful close.

"Overall, I don't deliberation this activity has a immense impact," Kang told ABC News. "It's easy arsenic governmental scientists for america to opportunity nary of this really matters very much. In this lawsuit it really could determine nan predetermination because we're talking astir a very tight title successful a azygous authorities that could plaything it."

Musk often posts messages successful support of Trump connected nan societal media level X, wherever he boasts much than 202 cardinal followers. At Trump rallies, Musk has occasionally appeared connected shape to make an impassioned plea for votes. He has besides donated astir $75 cardinal successful support of Trump complete a three-month play ending successful September, authorities filings show.

Even more, Musk precocious began a regular $1 cardinal giveaway to registered voters successful battleground states. Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner subsequently sued Musk for allegedly conducting an forbidden lottery.

To participate nan sweepstake, individuals must motion a petition circulated by Musk's America PAC that pledges support for nan First and Second Amendments. The only group eligible to motion are registered voters successful 7 cardinal plaything states, nan America PAC website says.

Attorneys for Musk denied nan DA's claims of illegality and revenge documents seeking to move nan lawsuit to national court, but a national judge remanded nan lawsuit backmost to authorities court. The regular lotteries are ongoing.

ABC News contacted Musk-owned companies Tesla and Space X successful an effort to scope Musk for comment. He did not instantly respond. Musk's America PAC besides did not respond to a petition for comment.

Experts who said pinch ABC News formed uncertainty connected nan efficacy of nan giveaway, saying Musk is apt to scope highly-engaged supporters who had already intended to registry and ballot for Trump.

"It's specified a adjacent state. You propulsion thing astatine nan wall and dream it works. But I'm not convinced," Ray La Raja, a governmental subject professor astatine nan University of Massachusetts Amherst, told ABC News.

However, nan arguable giveaway and statewide barnstorming person garnered buzz that could thief motivate fans of Musk to spell to nan polls, nan experts said. Rather than person caller Trump supporters, Musk whitethorn thief turnout immoderate voters, particularly young men who dress up a peculiarly difficult voting bloc to get into nan ballot box, they added.

In that sense, Musk has bankrolled a run touting his ain endorsement of Trump, Robin Kolodny, a professor of governmental subject astatine Philadelphia-based Temple University, told ABC News.

"You request to deliberation astir Elon Musk successful nan aforesaid measurement you deliberation astir Taylor Swift," Kolodny said. Swift, who endorsed Harris successful September, prompted much than 400,000 visits to nan elector registration website Vote.gov complete a 24-hour period, nan New York Times reported.

In his municipality hallway events and societal media posts, Musk has besides dispersed misleading claims casting uncertainty connected nan legitimacy of nan election. Speaking successful Philadelphia past month, Musk baselessly accused Democrats of sending undocumented immigrants to nan authorities to formed forbidden ballots. Noncitizen voting is forbidden and extraordinarily rare. Recent audits of elector rolls successful states including Georgia, Ohio, and Iowa uncovered instances of noncitizen voting that wide amounted to only a mini fraction of nan states' wide number of registered voters.

In a post connected X past week, Musk cited early ballot information arsenic denotation that Pennsylvania was headed toward a "decisive Republican victory." The declare sharply diverges from nan 538 polling average, which indicates a neck-and-neck race.

"It does look for illustration portion of nan strategy is to person their supporters riled up and primed to deliberation thing fraudulent happened if nan predetermination doesn't spell their way," Kang said.

However, nan strategy taken up by Musk carries risks for Trump, experts said. An involution by nan world's wealthiest individual could thrust distant immoderate voters who comprehend nan run arsenic retired of touch pinch mundane people's concerns, Peter Brusoe, a professor of governmental subject and economics astatine nan State University of New York astatine Delhi, told ABC News.

"In a plaything authorities for illustration Pennsylvania it really mightiness do much harm than good," Brusoe said. "How does Elon Musk resonate successful nan Pittsburgh suburbs? Do they spot him arsenic a personification they tin subordinate to?"

Speaking connected a telephone municipality hallway past month, Musk said Trump's economical plans could origin financial pain. Spending cuts imposed by a caller "government ratio commission" would "necessarily impact immoderate impermanent hardship," Musk said. The comments elicited disapproval from Democrats.

The Trump run did not instantly respond to a petition for comment.

In consequence to ABC News' petition for comment, nan Harris run pointed to its caller door-knocking cognition successful Pennsylvania. On Saturday, nan run knocked connected 807,000 doors successful nan state, nan run said.

While Musk's run whitethorn effect nan result successful Pennsylvania, it's yet intolerable to find nan precise effect successful nan fog of a hectic run season, nan experts said.

"There's perfectly nary measurement to know," Kolodny said, pointing to nan trouble of isolating Musk's effect amid a slew of different variables. But nan result of nan predetermination whitethorn style nan measurement that observers look backmost connected Musk's campaign.

"We'll find out," Kolodny said.

ABC News' Peter Charalambous contributed to this report.

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