Why early election returns may not hold up as the night goes on

As polls close crossed six clip zones connected predetermination night, millions will beryllium watching to spot who nan 47th U.S. president will be. But nan hold is apt to beryllium a agelong 1 for a fewer reasons that whitethorn not beryllium readily apparent. Election results that look for illustration triumph for 1 campaigner astatine 10 p.m. could displacement nan different measurement astatine 11:30 p.m., aliases moreover later. And it whitethorn return days to find retired who won.

The reasons why predetermination watchers whitethorn spot abrupt changes successful Kamala Harris' aliases Donald Trump's opinionated successful nan astir competitory states is mostly influenced by 2 factors: really absentee ballots are processed and nan organization density of an area. 

That's why CBS News' unrecorded sum will show its whole authorities models, including exit polls and wherever location are outstanding votes.

Absentee ballot processing differs by state

It whitethorn look beautiful straightforward — only 7 battleground states are considered to beryllium successful play successful nan election: Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, and these are nan states apt to find nan winner. 

But each authorities has different rules governing erstwhile absentee ballots tin beryllium processed and counted. In nan early hours of predetermination night, location whitethorn beryllium an incomplete image of who's winning a authorities because absentee ballots will return longer successful immoderate states than others to look successful nan count. 

Arizona and North Carolina require each ballots to beryllium received connected aliases earlier Election Day,  and some states let ballots to beryllium processed early, which suggests ballot totals connected predetermination nighttime should see galore message ballots early connected aft polls close.

Michigan is among nan states that originates processing votes early and requires each ballots to beryllium successful connected Election Day, truthful nan ballot totals are apt to see nan absentee ballots.

Nevada besides allows early processing of absentee ballots, but ballots whitethorn besides beryllium received aft Election Day; they must beryllium postmarked by Nov. 5 aliases received successful nan Election Department by Nov. 8 if they do not person postmarks. In May, Nevada's caput of authorities released guidance aimed astatine speeding up nan merchandise of predetermination results. 

"Releasing results sooner will summation transparency, thief america combat misinformation and alleviate unit connected predetermination officials," said Secretary of State Francisco Aguilar successful a connection astatine nan time. 

Early in-person and message ballots tin statesman to beryllium counted astatine 8 a.m. PT connected Election Day, By 6 p.m. PT (9 p.m. ET) connected Election Day, region clerks are to supply their first predetermination results to nan caput of state, which expects to merchandise unofficial results arsenic soon arsenic polls close. Previously, nary counting began earlier polls closed, according to nan caput of state.

Wisconsin and Pennsylvania some require each ballots to beryllium received by Election Day, but they mostly prohibition processing and counting of absentee ballots until nan greeting of Election Day. Some of nan message ballots whitethorn look successful first results, but it will return immoderate clip for predetermination workers to count these ballots. About 1.8 cardinal group voted absentee successful Pennsylvania this year. 

In 2020, it was Pennsylvania that clinched nan presidency for Joe Biden, but nan authorities did not person a projected victor until 4 days aft nan election. Absentee voting was higher that year, however, because of nan pandemic. Also caller this year, Pennsylvania is requiring each ballots to beryllium submitted by Election Day. It is nary longer accepting ballots postmarked connected Election Day and  received wrong 3 days afterward.

Generally, much Democrats person voted early than Republicans, though Republicans made a concerted effort this twelvemonth to person their voters to ballot by message aliases early successful person, and look to person had immoderate success. If they did, it will beryllium successful spite of nan mixed messages from Donald Trump, who still rails against message voting.

Urban vs. agrarian region predetermination results

In nan first mates of hours Tuesday nighttime aft polls close, location whitethorn beryllium a batch of reddish showing up connected nan representation for Trump and different Republicans, but that whitethorn beryllium a usability of organization density.

Polling precincts successful smaller regions often tabulate and study results faster than their municipality counterparts simply because location are less votes to process. Across nan cardinal battleground states successful nan 2024 statesmanlike election, immoderate of nan biggest cities — organization centers associated pinch dense Democratic majorities — are expected to beryllium among nan latest to study afloat results, experts say. Fulton County, Georgia — location to overmuch of Atlanta — "has a notorious estimation for being slow," said Emory University professor Andra Gillespie. 

"Fulton County is besides nan largest region successful nan state," Gillespie said. "It's not for illustration a region that tin move astir aft conscionable 10,000 aliases 15,000 votes."

"Notorious" is besides really a professor successful different battleground, Michigan, described nan ballot processing successful that state's biggest city.

"Detroit is notoriously slow," said Oakland University professor David Dulio. And Warren, nan state's third-largest city, is besides apt to beryllium slower than different areas because it chose not to pre-process absentee ballots. A caller rule allowed municipalities successful nan authorities to statesman processing those ballots up to 8 days earlier nan election.

"They're not going to person immoderate of those absentees processed astatine each earlier Tuesday," Dulio told CBS News.

Experts had akin warnings astir predetermination returns for awesome cities successful Arizona, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

Milwaukee Election Commission Executive Director Paulina Gutiérrez told Wisconsin Public Radio precocious she expects that city's results to beryllium successful aft midnight.

"We are nan largest metropolis successful nan authorities of Wisconsin," Gutiérrez told nan power station. "We travel nan aforesaid laws that everyone other follows present successful nan authorities of Wisconsin. We conscionable person a batch much to do."

The Supreme Court connected Friday near successful spot a ruling by Pennsylvania's highest tribunal requiring officials to count provisional ballots made by voters whose mail-in ballots were rejected. In a peculiarly tight race, that could mean a important delay.

The processing of those votes could travel a akin pattern, taking longer successful Philadelphia and different cities than successful little populous regions, says University of Pennsylvania professor Marc Meredith.

"Provisional ballots typically are reported retired successful smaller counties connected Thursday, done Monday successful nan larger counties," Meredith said.

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• Voting
• 2024 Elections