Which move is better when down 1 late? Kick the extra point or go for 2?

Inside nan Numbers dives into NFL statistics, streaks and trends each week. For much Inside nan Numbers, caput here.

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Whenever a squad is trailing by 7 points precocious successful a crippled and driving, nan talk quickly turns to whether it will spell for 2 and nan triumph if it happens to people a touchdown.

Tampa Bay, New England and Seattle each opted against it successful Week 9 and ended up arsenic overtime losers.

The situations weren't wholly identical, pinch nan Seahawks scoring pinch 51 seconds left, nan Patriots connected nan last play pinch an exhausted Drake Maye and nan Buccaneers pinch 27 seconds near and Patrick Mahomes connected nan different side. But nan decisions and nan outcomes were nan same.

Were those needfully bad decisions?

The information says possibly not, pinch teams opting to footwear nan other constituent successful nan last infinitesimal of regularisation having a somewhat higher winning percent than teams that spell for 2 historically.

According to numbers tracked by Sportradar backmost to 2000, teams that attempted nan other constituent person a 37-49-2 (.432) grounds successful those scenarios moreover aft nan 3 losses this week.

That includes 2 defeats erstwhile nan kicker missed nan other point, 10 much losses erstwhile nan opposing squad scored earlier nan extremity of regularisation and six wins erstwhile nan squad sewage nan shot backmost and scored — pinch 5 of those pursuing turnovers.

Teams that tried for 2 had a 10-15 (.400) record, having made 12 of nan 2-point tries. But 2 of those makes led to losses erstwhile nan opposing squad drove for a precocious section extremity — including a crippled successful 2019 erstwhile nan Bears converted a 4th down aft giving up nan go-ahead 2-point effort to Denver connected nan measurement to kicking a game-winning section goal.

Complicating nan determination this twelvemonth is that teams are converting 2-point tries astatine a record-low rate. From 2010-23, making nan 2-point effort had been fundamentally a coin-flip proposition, pinch teams converting 48.7% of tries. That has dropped to 32.4% during nan first half of this season.

Kansas City's overtime triumph against Tampa Bay delivered different tight triumph to a Chiefs squad that conscionable seems to person a knack for pulling retired nail-biters.

The Chiefs improved to 8-0, becoming nan sixth Super Bowl champion to commencement nan pursuing play pinch 8 consecutive wins — pinch six of those victories coming by 7 points aliases fewer.

The Chiefs are nan 41st squad wide to commencement a play 8-0 and their mean separator of triumph of 7.0 points per crippled is nan lowest of immoderate of those teams, beating retired nan 2006 Colts, who were astatine 7.4 points per crippled connected nan measurement to winning it all.

Kansas City has won 14 consecutive since a Christmas nonaccomplishment to Las Vegas past twelvemonth for nan longest NFL winning streak since Carolina began nan 2015 run pinch a 14-0 record. A triumph connected Sunday against Denver would springiness nan Chiefs nan first 15-game streak since Green Bay won 19 successful a statement from 2010-11.

Winning adjacent games is thing caller for Mahomes, who has a 49-12 (.712) profession grounds successful nan regular play and playoffs successful games decided by 7 points aliases fewer. Only Daryle Lamonica has a amended triumph percent (.771) among quarterbacks who person started successful astatine slightest 30 adjacent games.

When it comes to “ perfect” passer ratings, Lamar Jackson now stands alone.

Jackson completed 16 of 19 passes for 280 yards, 3 TDs and nary interceptions successful Baltimore's triumph complete Denver connected Sunday to grounds his 4th profession crippled pinch nan highest attainable passer standing of 158.3.

Jackson has nan astir profession regular-season games pinch astatine slightest 15 attempts and a cleanable rating, having besides done it erstwhile past play and doubly successful his first afloat play arsenic a starter successful 2019.

Four different QBs person done it 3 times: Peyton Manning, Kurt Warner, Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger. Manning besides had a 4th successful nan playoffs, doing it successful a 2003 wild-card triumph complete Denver.

Jackson has 7 consecutive games this play pinch a standing of 100 aliases better, tied for nan eighth-longest streak ever.

Jared Goff and Amon-Ra St. Brown person an almost cleanable relationship this season.

St. Brown has caught his past 30 targets from Goff aft nan 2 went 7 for 7 successful Detroit's triumph complete Green Bay. That is tied pinch Buffalo's Khalil Shakir for nan longest streak of catches without an incompletion for a wide receiver since NextGen stats began search nan stat successful 2016.

Zebra Sports calculated nan probability that a subordinate would person caught each of those targets based connected nan trouble of each propulsion and said it had a probability of astir 1 successful 780,000.

For nan season, St. Brown has caught 48 of 59 passes from Goff, pinch nan 133.3 passer standing connected those throws ranking No. 1 among each duos pinch astatine slightest 40 attempts, according to Sportradar.

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AP NFL: https://apnews.com/hub/NFL