What are the swing state paths to 270 electoral votes for Harris, Trump

Polls show a tight title successful cardinal battleground states.

As Election Day grows near, erstwhile President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are still successful a tight title to transverse nan 270 electoral assemblage period based connected caller polling.

Republican statesmanlike nominee erstwhile President Donald Trump watches a video featuring Democratic statesmanlike nominee Vice President Kamala Harris arsenic he speaks astatine a run rally, Oct. 29, 2024, successful Allentown, Pa.

AP

The 2 candidates are wrong nan separator of correction successful nan plaything states, arsenic Harris has a flimsy lead successful Wisconsin and Michigan. Trump has mini leads successful Georgia, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Nevada and Arizona, according to 538's polling average arsenic of Friday.

Previous elections person shown that nan result of nationalist races has swayed from nan polling numbers, truthful it is still anyone's game.

However, fixed nan data, location are a fewer apt scenarios wherever each campaigner tin triumph nan Electoral College votes and nan presidency.

Assuming nan polls accurately bespeak nan last results successful nan states, Trump would triumph successful Georgia, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Nevada and Arizona and triumph nan predetermination pinch 287 electoral votes.

The erstwhile president's lead those states is nary much than 2.4 percent points, good wrong immoderate awesome poll’s separator of error, according to 538 data.

Democratic statesmanlike nominee, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris pauses while speaking during a rally, Oct. 30, 2024, successful Harrisburg, Pennsylvania.

Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

If nan polls understate Harris' lead, she could gain precisely 270 votes by winning 1 electoral ballot successful Nebraska, arsenic good arsenic each of nan votes successful Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, if she wins those states.

If polls are understating Trump's lead, he could person nan advantage by winning Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and North Carolina, giving him 268 electoral votes. Winning Pennsylvania would put him complete nan 270 limit successful that scenario.

Former US President and Republican statesmanlike campaigner Donald Trump speaks during a run rally astatine tract of his first assassination effort successful Butler, Pennsylvania connected Oct. 5, 2024.

Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images

Over 65 cardinal Americans person voted arsenic of Friday morning, which is 40% of nan 2020 turnout, however, location is nary existent information from those votes that will find who will triumph nan race.

The early voting information has shown that nan mostly of early voters are women, a truth that nan Harris run and Democrats person been touting.

However, nan information besides shows that 41% of nan early voters are registered Democrats vs 39% of registered Republicans. In nan aforesaid play successful 2020, 45% of early voters were registered Democrats and 36% were Republicans, according to nan data.