We may not know the next president on Election Day. This Arizona swing county could be why

PHOENIX (AP) — Inside a squat building ringed pinch a chainlink obstruction and actual barriers successful downtown Phoenix, predetermination workers connected Nov. 5 will statesman a grindingly slow tally of each ballot formed successful nan immense expanse of stucco and saguaro that is Maricopa County, Arizona.

In what has go nan nation’s eventual plaything county, nan count present could find whether Democrat Kamala Harris aliases Republican Donald Trump will beryllium nan adjacent U.S. president. It besides is apt to find nan victor of a intimately watched title that could determine which statement controls nan U.S. Senate.

It is 1 of nan astir consequential battlegrounds successful nan country. That intends voters, campaigns and group astir nan world sometimes must hold much than a week to study who won nan county, and pinch it, statewide races successful nan plaything authorities of Arizona. This year, predetermination officials pass it could return arsenic agelong arsenic 13 days to tabulate each of nan ballots successful Maricopa.

The drawn-out count has made nan region a halfway of predetermination conspiracy theories spawned by Trump. It’s besides made Maricopa a cardinal portion of nan erstwhile president’s run to instal those who supported overturning nan past predetermination successful 2020 into positions overseeing early ones.

But nan logic it takes truthful agelong is simple. With its 4.5 cardinal residents, Maricopa has a higher organization than astir half of nan states successful nan state and is location to 60% of Arizona’s voters. Election workers must travel voting laws — which were approved by Republican-controlled legislatures — that slow nan count. And it is 1 of nan fewer counties successful nan U.S. that is truthful evenly divided politically that races are often close.

That’s made nan region “the halfway of everything,” says Joe Garcia, a leader of nan Latino activistic group Chicanos Por La Causa, noting it is nan organization halfway of Arizona, its halfway of maturation and location to nan authorities capital.

“So nan powerfulness structure, nan money and nan maturation is each present successful Maricopa County,” he said. “If you tin triumph Maricopa County, you’re astir apt going to triumph nan full authorities of Arizona.”

Maricopa’s position isn’t conscionable astatine nan halfway of Arizona politics. The region has been a regular extremity for statesmanlike candidates arsenic they look to clinch Arizona’s 11 electoral votes — including Trump and Harris and their campaigns this twelvemonth — and it is simply a fulcrum connected which nail-biter races that tin find power of nan House of Representatives and U.S. Senate pivot.

The fast-growing region besides has go location to a stew of cardinal demographic groups successful nan conflict for nan White House: a increasing Latino population, retirees, younger, recently arrived voters and a wide and heavy blimpish organization wrestling pinch a pivotal splinter group — college-educated, much able Republicans who’ve soured connected nan party’s much pugnacious, and astatine times anti-democratic, move nether Trump.

It wasn’t ever for illustration that.

A ‘small town’ booms

Judy Schwiebert grew up successful occidental Phoenix successful nan 1960s, erstwhile nan now-booming metropolis was what she describes arsenic “a beautiful mini town” and nan biggest arena of nan twelvemonth was nan three-day rodeo.

Everything stopped for nan rodeo parade, arsenic horse-drawn carriages, marching bands and dancers made their measurement done town. Schools closed for nan afloat 3 days, recalls Schwiebert, who is now a Democratic authorities representative. In 1969, nan region was still location to less than 1 cardinal people, little than one-quarter nan size it is today. With astir 4.5 cardinal residents, Maricopa County now has a organization akin to nan full authorities of Kentucky.

“Over nan years present I’ve seen it turn and grow,” Schweibert said.

The area became a magnet for conservatives for illustration John Kavanagh, a retired New York Port Authority Police officer. After 20 years of policing, Kavanagh and his woman headed west, to Maricopa County. They went successful 1993, because his woman couldn’t guidelines nan acold successful New York and Florida had excessively overmuch humidity and was “overstocked pinch New Yorkers.”

Kavanagh was for illustration a batch of different group who moved to Arizona successful nan 1990s — middle-class folks fleeing colder places and what they saw arsenic economical and governmental dysfunction for a sunny, affordable, and what they perceived arsenic a cleaner city.

“A batch of group came from those different cities, and they don’t want a repetition of what they left,” Kavanagh said.

In 1993, nan county’s organization was 2.3 million. Republicans dominated nan authorities legislature and Maricopa County politics. As a young authorities of transplants, it was easier than successful different places for caller arrivals to participate Arizona politics. Kavanagh was elected to nan state’s House of Representatives successful 2006. Now he is serving his first word successful nan authorities Senate; nan county’s organization has astir doubled since his arrival, and its authorities person changed.

Arizona now has a Democratic governor, elected successful 2022. Both its U.S. senators — Mark Kelly and Kyrsten Sinema — were elected arsenic Democrats, though Sinema has since go an independent.

Kavanagh attributes nan county’s leftward displacement to a wide array of factors — from societal changes he sees arsenic driven by nan media and academia to group moving to Arizona for higher-paying jobs that require much education.

“Hopefully there’s a constituent wherever group look and spot what nan consequence will beryllium if that inclination continues,” Kavanagh said, predicting a beardown November for his Republican Party. “Just look to L.A., look to New York, you know, look to Seattle. That’s wherever nan continuing displacement near will still occur. So let’s do a difficult extremity and possibly spell a fewer steps backmost to nan right.”

Clearly, galore who made nan move to Maricopa complete nan past fewer decades were not for illustration Kavanagh. The county’s conservative, low-tax attack attracted businesses arsenic good arsenic individuals, and those companies past attracted workers who sometimes were different from nan older transplants to Arizona.

Kevin Henderson moved to Maricopa successful 2010 astatine property 23, aft surviving successful Chicago and Portland, Oregon. A Democrat who useful successful catering, he was pleasantly amazed by life successful a then-red authorities and its residents’ live-and-let-live attitude.

“The group were very friendly,” said Henderson, now 37. “We are fortunate that, pinch specified an eclectic group of people, we are very knowing and accepting of different people’s views.”

At nan aforesaid clip that group for illustration Henderson came from different places wrong nan United States, accrued migration to Arizona from Mexico besides prompted governmental change.

In nan 1990s, President Bill Clinton’s management strengthened California’s border, pushing forbidden migration to Arizona, which already had a robust Hispanic population. Immigration quickly became a governmental flashpoint, starring galore successful nan increasing Latino organization surviving successful Maricopa legally to consciousness that Republicans were demonizing them.

The biggest displacement came successful 2010, erstwhile Arizona’s Republican-controlled legislature passed a rule allowing section constabulary to extremity group they suspected of being successful nan state illegally. The U.S. Supreme Court overturned nan law, but it energized nan state’s Latinos to shape against Republicans.

The law, which opponents dubbed “Show Me Your Papers,” was nan harshest anti-immigrant rule successful nan nation, and it changed Arizona politics, Latino activistic Garcia said. It led to boycotts and protests. Nationally and internationally, group knew astir Republican Sheriff Joe Arpaio — who pushed for nan rule — and his crime sweeps aimed astatine immigrants.

”That galvanized nan Latino organization for illustration thing ever had ever done before. It galvanized nan Latino organization much than each nan elector groups put together,” Garcia said. “It was a curse, but it was a metallic lining. It was a blessing because Latinos figured retired that, you cognize what? If we’re not progressive politically, past we lose.”

Republicans swept nan authorities successful 2010 and their hammerlock connected Maricopa County seemed apt to proceed moreover amid increasing Latino dissatisfaction.

But that would change, arsenic a caller GOP leader emerged.

Republicans reconsider

The first rumblings that Maricopa County could plaything against nan long-dominant Republican Party came successful 2016.

Even arsenic Trump was winning nan region and Arizona, Republican Sheriff Arpaio mislaid his bid for a seventh term. Arpaio was thing of a precursor to Trump, known for his hunger for media attraction and jousting pinch journalists, a hardline stance connected migration and a willingness to spell aft his critics — he moreover arrested a Republican region supervisor who criticized him. Trump yet pardoned Arpaio aft nan sheriff was convicted of contempt of tribunal for refusing to obey an injunction against group profiling of Latinos.

Gordon Keig voted against Arpaio. A lifelong Republican, Keig was progressively uneasy pinch his party’s increasing hostility to migration and SB 1070, nan arguable 2010 law. Though he’s a developer and instrumentality of debased taxes, Keig was disappointment astatine really nan GOP authorities legislature kept cutting Arizona’s already-low taxes, jeopardizing acquisition funding.

Keig couldn’t bring himself to ballot for Trump aliases his 2016 rival, Hillary Clinton. And erstwhile Trump came into agency and began what Keig saw arsenic his erratic, feud-driven attack to governing — including fighting pinch Arizona’s celebrated elder Republican Sen. John McCain, whose grandchildren Keig’s ain daughters knew — Keig couldn’t return it anymore. He switched his registration to nan Democratic Party.

He did get immoderate pushback. Keig said immoderate friends questioned really he could go a Democrat, but others understood.

“I conscionable felt for illustration nan Republican values weren’t, weren’t location for maine anymore,” he said. “But I think, you know, moreover immoderate of my adjacent friends that are still very, you know, progressive Republican Party members, understand and judge because they, I deliberation they whitethorn work together pinch maine that (what) buoyed a batch of nan statement has gone successful a wholly different direction.”

In 2020, Keig voted for Democrat Joe Biden. The alteration by voters for illustration him is visible by comparing Maricopa’s votes successful nan 2012 statesmanlike predetermination pinch 2020. A crescent of much able neighborhoods ringing cardinal Phoenix from nan northbound to nan southeastern edge, wherever a caller Intel spot works has attracted high-tech workers, switched from Republican to Democratic. Local governmental operatives dubbed nan area “the flip zone.”

The flip area mostly tracks wherever Maricopa’s much knowledgeable residents person clustered. Once little knowledgeable than nan nationalist average, nan region now boasts a somewhat higher stock of adults pinch four-year-college degrees than nan nationalist mean — a cardinal parameter of voting Democratic successful nan property of Trump.

As Maricopa County’s governmental leaning changed, truthful did nan state’s. In each statesmanlike predetermination since 2000, nan Republican had won some nan region and nan state, though Trump’s 2016 separator complete Hillary Clinton was smaller than erstwhile GOP victories. But successful 2020, Democrat Biden won nan county, and Arizona.

Trump falsely claimed he won Arizona aft his 2020 loss, and he and his friends assailed anyone who based on otherwise.

Watching nan guidance of immoderate section Republicans aft Biden won nan authorities made Keig moreover much comfortable pinch his change.

When nan Republican speaker of nan Arizona House refused to grant nan state’s electors to Trump, nan erstwhile president’s backers primaried him and forced him retired of office. When Maricopa County’s Republican supervisors refused Trump’s demands to mobility nan ballot tally, they, too, were targeted. Threats against Maricopa County Supervisor Bill Gates sewage truthful bad he fled his house.

“These are group I really, really admired,” Keig said. “And they were conscionable tally done nan mud.”

Denials and conspiracies

Trump’s dishonesty that he won Arizona made Maricopa County 1 of nan nation’s hotbeds of predetermination denial and conspiracy theories.

After nan 2020 election, Trump supporters turned up extracurricular nan region elections office, immoderate equipped and galore waving Trump and American flags, for a “Stop nan Steal” rally. His then-attorney, Rudy Giuliani, held hearings astatine a Phoenix hotel.

The Republican-controlled authorities Senate launched an error-riddled reappraisal of Maricopa’s handling of nan 2020 predetermination that included inspecting ballots for signs of fibers showing they were secretly made successful China. The region became thing of a tourer attraction for predetermination deniers who came from different states to watch nan show.

County Recorder Stephen Richer, a Republican who defended nan accuracy of nan county’s predetermination results, was singled retired for disapproval by Trump himself, and Richer and his family faced threats.

In 2022, Republicans who sided pinch Trump against Richer and nan region supervisors ran for apical statewide offices, and each lost. The losing campaigner for governor, Kari Lake, made truthful galore claims astir nan predetermination being stolen and allegations against Richer that he sued his chap Republican for libel.

Lake is moving for Senate this twelvemonth against Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego.

Richer says nan logic immoderate Republicans stay skeptical of nan measurement elections activity successful nan region isn’t because there’s thing particularly analyzable aliases different successful really it counts votes. It’s because Maricopa — located successful a onetime reliably reddish authorities wherever Biden successful 2020 defeated Trump by a separator of astir 11,000 votes — whitethorn beryllium nan champion spot to undermine assurance successful nationalist elections.

“I don’t deliberation it’s nan complexity of nan process. Our process looks beautiful akin to astir Western states,” Richer said. “I deliberation it is that this is wherever nan action is.”

Indeed, Trump, successful a run quality successful nan region successful 2023 called nan county’s Board of Supervisors, which shares predetermination duties pinch nan Recorder, nan astir important successful nan country.

The 4 Republicans connected nan committee besides rebuffed Trump’s pleas to overturn nan predetermination successful 2020. Two are retiring aft threats, and a Trump state won nan GOP superior to switch 1 of them. A 3rd was ousted successful a superior by different Trump supporter.

In July, Richer mislaid his Republican primary. The winner, authorities Rep. Justin Heap, has questioned nan ballot-counting process.

Part of what fuels nan conspiracy theories is sheer disbelief that Maricopa, a nationalist magnet for conservatives for decades, could spell Democratic.

Michelle Ugenti-Rita is an Arizona autochthonal who sought a spot connected nan region Board of Supervisors but mislaid successful a GOP superior successful July. Speaking to a group of Republicans gathered successful Scottsdale to watch nan statement betwixt Trump and Biden earlier this year, she denied nan displacement is owed to existent votes.

“I americium tired of nan media colluding pinch nan Board of Supervisors and gaslighting america to make america consciousness for illustration we’re liberal, for illustration we’re California,” Ugenti-Rita told nan crowd.

Still, galore successful Maricopa are keenly alert they’re surviving connected a partisan razor’s edge, intimately balanced betwixt nan 2 sides. Take Sandra Heyn, an 80-year-old retired coach from California who came to nan region 3 years agone to beryllium person to 1 of her grown sons.

She’s a Republican and devout Lutheran who’s uneasy astir Trump, moreover though she voted for him successful 2020. But she’s bemused astatine how, erstwhile she meets group conscionable successful statement astatine nan supermarket, nan speech quickly turns to politics.

“I’ve had people, immoderate group show me, ‘Oh, you’re from California. We don’t want anybody wide coming here.’ And past I’ve had different group opportunity ... ‘If you’re not liberal, support moving.’”

Why a complete count takes time

The conspiracists person seized connected really Maricopa reports its ballot counts successful 1 ample burst aft Election Day and past successful dribs and drabs for much than different week, erstwhile it yet becomes clear who won. There are 3 main reasons for this — Maricopa’s size, nan closeness of races successful nan region and Arizona’s voting laws, which were written and approved by Republicans.

Maricopa is nan second-largest predetermination jurisdiction successful nan nation. Only reliably Democratic Los Angeles County is larger.

Maricopa reports its results acold faster than Los Angeles, but it takes longer to find retired who won Maricopa, which creates a mendacious belief of upset successful nan ballot count there.

The logic Maricopa takes longer is because Maricopa — and Arizona wide — is truthful evenly divided nowadays that a fewer 1000 votes make nan difference. So news organizations person to hold until virtually nan past ballot is counted earlier declaring a winner.

In 2022, a Democrat won nan authorities lawyer general’s title by 280 votes. In little competitory places, from Florida to California, nan victor is usually clear wrong minutes of polls closing because nan tens of thousands of outstanding ballots wouldn’t beryllium capable to adjacent nan gap.

This election, voters are casting an extra-long two-page ballot that takes longer to tabulate, truthful it could return up to 13 days earlier they decorativeness counting, Deputy Elections Director Jennifer Liewer said. The timeline is akin to nan number of days it has taken successful caller elections to complete nan count. Associated Press investigation recovered it took 13 days for Maricopa County to decorativeness counting successful nan 2018 wide election, 11 days successful 2020 and 13 days successful nan 2022 midterms.

Arizona’s message voting rule besides drags retired nan count. It allows voters to return message ballots by nan adjacent of polls connected Election Day. In 2022, immoderate 293,000 voters — representing one-fifth nan full ballot successful Maricopa — dropped disconnected their message ballots connected Election Day.

Mail ballots return longer to count because, earlier they tin beryllium tallied, nan envelopes must beryllium scanned, nan ballots sorted and nan voters’ signatures inspected to guarantee they’re legitimate. Some states for illustration Florida require each message ballots to beryllium successful earlier Election Day truthful this process is complete erstwhile nan polls close. Because of Arizona law, erstwhile Maricopa’s polls adjacent it’s conscionable beginning.

Extending nan count moreover longer is simply a proviso successful Arizona rule that allows voters to “cure” their ballots up to 5 days aft Election Day. That intends if nan predetermination agency thinks nan signature connected nan ballot aliases immoderate different method item is wrong, nan elector has 5 much days to travel successful and hole it truthful nan ballot counts.

Usually nan number of cured ballots is comparatively small, but successful elections wherever each ballot is basal to determining nan winner, nan curing process drags nan suspense retired moreover more.

Richer noted that, while these processes whitethorn sound overly analyzable to immoderate successful nan U.S., they’re things that Western states for illustration Arizona person been doing for a period aliases more. Mail voting dates backmost to nan 19th period successful nan region.

“We ballot otherwise than astir of nan Eastern United States does,” Richer said.

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Associated Press newsman Maya Sweedler successful Washington contributed to this report.