Want to follow election results like a pro? Here’s what to watch in key states

WASHINGTON (AP) — Election nighttime successful nan United States is simply a spot for illustration a jigsaw puzzle, isolated from that only 1 portion appears astatine a time, and you don’t get to look astatine nan image connected nan box.

As thousands of counties and towns study ballot totals, it tin beryllium difficult to fig retired erstwhile nan results reported truthful acold will bespeak nan outcome.

The first study of nan nighttime mightiness show a monolithic lead for 1 candidate, but why does that lead dwindle successful immoderate races and turn successful others? Why does a azygous ballot update from a large metropolis sometimes corroborate nan victor erstwhile there’s still a important number of votes near to count? What’s nan quality betwixt a “mirage” and a existent outcome?

Past elections tin supply a guide.

They show that mail-in votes successful caller elections person leaned heavy toward Democrats and that successful immoderate states, counties study those ballots first. That tin create a “blue mirage” successful races that extremity up being only constrictive victories for Democrats aliases moreover important victories for Republicans. They show that Republicans tin suffer large cities overwhelmingly and still triumph nan election.

Even so, sometimes nan accustomed rules and patterns get thrown retired nan window, either because of unexpected changes to nan state’s management process aliases awesome swings successful elector behavior.

Some caller examples successful cardinal states tin thief supply immoderate thought of what to expect betwixt nan clip that polls adjacent successful Florida early successful nan evening each nan measurement done Arizona, wherever polls adjacent astatine 10 p.m. EST.

Florida

The first clues of really predetermination nighttime is going usually travel from Florida. Results commencement coming successful astatine 7 p.m. EST moreover though nan last polls don’t adjacent successful nan authorities until 8 p.m. EST.

Not each authorities makes clear erstwhile it releases ballot updates whether nan reports see mail-in ballots, early in-person aliases Election Day ballots. But erstwhile states do supply that information, aliases capable clues are disposable to fig it retired connected our own, it’s hugely adjuvant successful figuring retired why nan ballot count looks for illustration it does astatine that moment.

Florida rule requires each region to study its early and absentee ballots first. That includes mail-in ballots, which thin heavy Democratic.

Over nan past 2 predetermination cycles, Democrats person tended to ballot by message much than Republicans. That intends nan first results reported often look stronger for Democratic candidates than nan eventual outcome. Then, arsenic nan votes formed connected Election Day trickle in, Republicans commencement seeing overmuch much favorable results.

Take nan 2022 Senate race, erstwhile Republican Sen. Marco Rubio faced a situation from Democrat Val Demings.

Demings won an early update successful Broward County, giving her a lead of astir 30 percent points astatine nan opening of nan night. But she mislaid an update 2 minutes later successful Miami-Dade County, a peculiarly concerning motion for Democrats because these early updates should beryllium nan votes that are astir favorable to them. In nan end, Demings mislaid her lead arsenic much Election Day votes and much votes from Republican-leaning areas were counted. Rubio won reelection, 58% to 41%.

Virginia

While nan first votes of nan nighttime should favour Democrats successful Florida, nan bid of events successful Virginia tends to alteration depending connected what each region decides to do.

There are nary strict rules dictating really counties should merchandise results. But successful past elections, early returns favored Republicans until nan large cities and ample bluish Virginia suburbs reported their results, which took hours.

In Virginia and successful astir different states, Republican voters are much dispersed retired geographically than Democratic voters, who are concentrated successful awesome organization hubs. So passim nan night, while nan awesome Democratic-leaning counties were still counting votes, smaller counties, which thin to thin Republican, had already started reporting their votes.

In 2020, Republican Donald Trump led Democrat Joe Biden for 5 hours aft polls closed connected predetermination nighttime earlier heavy Democratic Fairfax County reported a astir 400,000-vote update astir 12:30 a.m. EST. Biden won Virginia that twelvemonth by a separator of 10 percent points.

Georgia

Georgia allows counties to statesman counting absentee ballots connected Election Day. By nan clip polls close, immoderate counties already person awesome batches of votes fresh to report.

Those first reports are often disproportionately favorable to Democrats. Then, hole to hold for a while. After nan first reports, it whitethorn beryllium hours earlier nan remainder of nan authorities starts sending successful results arsenic they proceed to count votes, meaning that bluish mirage could instrumentality astir for rather a while.

In 2022, nan Senate predetermination went to a runoff, because neither campaigner received 50%. Democrat Raphael Warnock did extremity up pinch a azygous percent constituent lead by nan clip votes were certified successful nan wide election.

This fall, nan State Election Board approved a caller norm that requires canvass workers to manus count nan number of ballots formed — not nan existent votes — aft voting is complete. Critics, including GOP Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, worried nan norm would hold nan reporting of predetermination results.

Ohio

In nan 2022 Ohio Senate race, Rep. Tim Ryan started retired pinch an early lead erstwhile Franklin County, location to nan authorities superior of Columbus, reported its first batch of ballots of nan night, which went 74% to 26% for Ryan complete Republican JD Vance, now Trump’s moving mate. That was nan precocious constituent for Ryan. In nan end, he carried Franklin pinch somewhat little of nan ballot — astir two-thirds — and mislaid nan title statewide.

So why was his lead truthful overmuch bigger early successful nan night?

Again, it’s each astir mail-in ballots. Ohio releases its pre-Election Day votes first point connected predetermination night, including mail-in votes. Like successful different races since 2022, mail-in votes tended to thin toward Democrats. As Election Day votes trickled in, Republican JD Vance took nan lead and yet won by 6 points.

North Carolina

In nan 2022 Senate race, astir a half hr aft polls closed successful North Carolina, Democrat Cheri Beasley had a lead of astir 200,000 votes. By midnight, Republican Ted Budd had a lead of complete 150,000 votes.

North Carolina counts astir each its ballots connected predetermination night. The first reports of nan nighttime successful astir North Carolina counties will beryllium nan results of message ballots, followed by early in-person votes. Later updates will see results from ballots formed connected Election Day. North Carolina has a history of counting its Election Day ballot beautiful quickly, truthful if a bluish mirage does originate from those first reports, it mightiness not past very long.

It’s unclear really ballot counting whitethorn beryllium affected by emergency changes put successful spot successful nan aftermath of Hurricane Helene, which ravaged occidental parts of nan state. Among different changes, nan legislature decided that voters successful 25 counties affected by Helene whitethorn driblet disconnected their absentee ballots astatine unfastened early in-person voting sites and region elections offices anyplace successful nan state. Those ballots still must beryllium turned successful by 7:30 p.m. connected Election Day successful bid to count.

Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania followed nan aforesaid shape arsenic Georgia and Ohio successful 2022.

Initial ballot updates, which included a large chunk of mail-in ballots, gave Democrat John Fetterman a lopsided advantage earlier votes from Republicans began to constrictive nan spread successful nan Senate race. The authorities had reported moreover earlier canvass closing that much than 7 successful 10 message ballots returned earlier Election Day came from registered Democrats.

Republican Mehmet Oz began to drawback up arsenic much of nan agrarian and Election Day votes were tabulated. But those votes weren’t capable to flooded Fetterman’s lead.

When nan AP called Fetterman nan winner, he led by 2 percent points. The AP estimated location were much than 800,000 votes near to beryllium counted, but astir of them were successful counties wherever Fetterman was winning by ample margins: Philadelphia and nan surrounding counties of Delaware, Bucks and Montgomery. But nan measurement Pennsylvania counts its votes could lead to a bluish mirage, a reddish mirage, aliases some — astatine different times successful nan evening. Pennsylvania doesn’t require counties to study their mail-in votes first, and they aren’t allowed to commencement processing those votes until Election Day.

In nan 2020 statesmanlike election, Biden took a monolithic lead arsenic pre-Election Day votes were counted, past Trump took a immense lead arsenic Election Day votes were counted, and past Biden yet regained his constrictive separator arsenic much message votes were counted.

Wisconsin

In Wisconsin, municipalities study their ballot totals to counties, and each metropolis tin take really to study its results. Most harvester mail-in ballots pinch Election Day votes, but some, including Milwaukee, merchandise them separately. That dilutes nan chances of a mirage but besides adds an constituent of unpredictability.

The metropolis of Milwaukee reports Election Day votes earlier mail-in votes. That tin make it difficult to cognize really galore votes stay to beryllium counted location until predetermination officials springiness circumstantial accusation astir really galore message ballots stay aliases corroborate that they person been counted already.

In Wisconsin, accusation astir nan past votes to travel from Milwaukee, which typically reports into wee hours of Wednesday morning, is often basal to find nan victor successful adjacent races.

Michigan

As successful Wisconsin, there’s nary cosmopolitan shape successful Michigan for erstwhile counties study their message ballots. That often makes surface science a amended parameter of nan guidance of a title than ballot type.

The cardinal to a adjacent title successful Michigan is to hold for Wayne, Oakland, and Washtenaw counties to merchandise important batches of votes earlier jumping to immoderate conclusions. Wayne includes Detroit, while Oakland is made up of nan city’s bluish suburbs. Washtenaw County is location to Ann Arbor and nan University of Michigan.

Michigan doesn’t licence absentee ballots to beryllium counted until nan greeting of Election Day and warns connected its elections website that precocious numbers of absentee ballots usually prolongs nan counting process by hours if not days.

Arizona

Arizona won’t study votes until an hr aft polls close, owed to nan authorities law. But that intends erstwhile that first update comes in, it’s beautiful big. Historically, astir half of nan state’s full votes are reported successful nan first update.

That update, for illustration successful galore different states, has tended to thin heavy Democratic successful caller elections because it includes message ballots formed good earlier Election Day. That spread usually narrows arsenic Election Day votes are counted. But aft that, things return a much analyzable move successful Arizona than successful different states.

Ballots counted aft Election Day see “late earlies” — nan last-arriving message ballots that see those dropped disconnected connected Election Day. Those ballots heavy favored Trump successful 2020.

But successful nan 2022 Senate race, Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly took nan lead successful nan first update, erstwhile Maricopa County, nan state’s astir populous region and location to Phoenix, released 837,000 ballots successful its first report. He maintained that first lead, moreover though it narrowed, erstwhile Election Day votes were reported. Votes counted aft predetermination nighttime grounded to eat into his advantage.

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Read much astir really U.S. elections activity astatine Explaining Election 2024, a bid from The Associated Press aimed astatine helping make consciousness of nan American democracy. The AP receives support from respective backstage foundations to heighten its explanatory sum of elections and democracy. See much astir AP’s populist inaugural here. The AP is solely responsible for each content.