US economy is believed to have grown at a solid pace again last quarter

WASHINGTON -- Powered by user spending, nan U.S. system apt kept expanding astatine a patient gait from July done September contempt nan unit of still-high liking rates.

The Commerce Department is expected to study Wednesday that nan gross home merchandise — nan economy’s full output of equipment and services — grew astatine a 2.6% yearly gait past quarter, according to a study of forecasters by nan information patient FactSet. That would beryllium down from a 3% yearly rate successful nan April-June period. But it would still magnitude to a coagulated gait arsenic Americans ponder nan authorities of nan economy successful nan last agelong of nan statesmanlike race.

Wednesday's study is nan first of 3 estimates nan authorities will make of GDP maturation for nan 3rd 4th of nan year. The U.S. economy, nan world's biggest, has shown astonishing resilience successful nan look of nan much higher borrowing rates nan Federal Reserve imposed successful 2022 and 2023 successful its thrust to curb inflation. Despite wide predictions that nan system would succumb to a recession, it has kept growing, pinch employers still hiring and consumers still spending.

In a motion that nan nation's households, whose purchases thrust astir of nan economy, will proceed spending, nan Conference Board said Tuesday that its consumer assurance index posted its biggest monthly summation since March 2021. The proportionality of consumers who expect a recession successful nan adjacent 12 months dropped to its lowest constituent since nan committee first posed that mobility successful July 2022.

At nan aforesaid time, nan nation's once-sizzling occupation marketplace has mislaid immoderate momentum. On Tuesday, nan authorities reported that nan number of occupation openings successful nan United States fell successful September to its lowest level since January 2021. And employers person added an mean of 200,000 jobs a period truthful acold this twelvemonth — a patient number but down from a grounds 604,000 successful 2021 arsenic nan system rebounded from nan pandemic recession, 377,000 successful 2022 and 251,000 successful 2023.

On Friday, nan Labor Department is expected to study that nan system added 120,000 jobs successful October. That gain, though, will astir apt person been importantly held down by nan effects of Hurricanes Helene and Milton and by a onslaught astatine Boeing, nan aviation giant, each of which temporarily knocked thousands of group disconnected payrolls.

At its astir caller gathering past month, nan Fed was satisfied capable pinch its advancement against ostentation — and concerned capable by nan slowing occupation marketplace — to slash its benchmark complaint by a hefty half percent point, its first and largest complaint trim successful much than 4 years. When it meets adjacent week, nan Fed is expected to denote different complaint cut, this 1 by a much emblematic quarter-point.

The policymakers person besides signaled that they expect to trim their cardinal complaint again astatine their last 2 meetings this year, successful November and December. And they envision 4 much complaint cuts successful 2025 and 2 successful 2026. The cumulative consequence of nan Fed's complaint cuts, complete time, will apt beryllium little borrowing rates for consumers and businesses.

Inflation, which reached a four-decade precocious of 9.1% successful June 2022, has tumbled to 2.4%, hardly supra nan Fed’s 2% target. But mean prices still acold transcend their pre-pandemic levels, which has exasperated galore Americans and posed a situation to Vice President Kamala Harris’ statesmanlike prospects successful her title against erstwhile President Donald Trump. Most mainstream economists person suggested, though, that Trump’s argumentation proposals, dissimilar Harris', would worsen inflation.