Trump wants the presidential winner to be declared on election night. Why that’s unlikely

Former President Donald Trump is stepping up his demands that nan victor of nan statesmanlike title beryllium declared soon aft polls adjacent Tuesday, good earlier each nan votes are counted.

Trump group nan shape in 2020, erstwhile he declared that he had won during nan early greeting hours aft Election Day. That led his friends to request that officials “stop nan count!” He and galore different conservatives person spent nan past 4 years falsely claiming that fraud costs him that predetermination and bemoaning really agelong it takes to count ballots successful nan U.S.

But 1 of galore reasons we are improbable to cognize nan victor quickly connected predetermination nighttime is that Republican lawmakers successful 2 cardinal plaything states person refused to alteration laws that hold nan count. Another is that astir indications are this will beryllium a very adjacent election, and it takes longer to find who won adjacent elections than blowouts.

In nan end, predetermination experts note, nan privilege successful vote-counting is to make judge it’s an meticulous and unafraid tally, not to extremity nan suspense moments aft polls close.

“There’s thing nefarious astir it,” said Rick Hasen, a rule professor astatine nan University of California, Los Angeles. “The clip hold is to protect nan integrity of nan process.”

Trump’s request besides doesn’t look to relationship for nan six clip zones from nan East Coast to Hawaii.

David Becker, an elections master and co-author of “The Big Truth,” debunking Trump’s 2020 predetermination lies, said it’s not realistic for predetermination officials successful thousands of jurisdictions to “instantly threat their fingers and count 160 cardinal multi-page ballots pinch dozens of races connected them.”

Trump wants nan title decided Tuesday night

During a Sunday rally successful Pennsylvania, Trump demanded that nan title beryllium decided soon aft immoderate polls statesman closing.

“They person to beryllium decided by 9 o’clock, 10 o’clock, 11 o’clock connected Tuesday night,” Trump said. “Bunch of crooked people. These are crooked people.”

It was not clear who he was targeting pinch nan “crooked people” remark.

Timing is 1 illustration of why Trump’s demands don’t lucifer nan reality of conducting elections successful nan U.S. By 11 p.m. Eastern time, polls will conscionable beryllium closing successful nan 2 Western plaything states of Arizona and Nevada.

Trump has led conservatives to bemoan that nan U.S. doesn’t count elections arsenic swiftly arsenic France aliases Argentina, wherever results for caller races person been announced wrong hours of polls closing. But that’s because those countries tabulate only a azygous predetermination astatine a time. The decentralized U.S. strategy prevents nan national authorities from controlling elections.

Instead, votes are counted successful astir 10,000 abstracted jurisdictions, each of which has its ain races for nan authorities legislature, metropolis council, schoolhouse boards and ballot measures to tabulate astatine nan aforesaid time. That’s why it takes longer for nan U.S. to count votes.

Declaring a victor tin return time

The Associated Press calls races erstwhile location is no possibility that nan trailing campaigner tin dress up nan gap. Sometimes, if 1 campaigner is importantly behind, a victor tin beryllium called quickly. But if nan separator is narrow, past each past ballot could matter. It takes a while earlier each ballot is counted moreover successful nan astir businesslike jurisdictions successful nan country.

In 2018, for example, Republican Rick Scott won nan U.S. Senate title successful Florida, a authorities conservatives regularly praise for its speedy tally. But nan AP didn’t telephone Scott’s triumph until aft nan conclusion of a recount connected Nov. 20 because Scott’s separator was truthful slim.

It besides takes clip to count each 1 of nan millions of votes because predetermination officials person to process disputed, aliases “provisional,” ballots, and to spot if they were legitimately cast. Overseas ballots from subject members aliases different U.S. citizens overseas tin trickle successful astatine nan past minute. Mail ballots usually onshore early, but there’s a lengthy process to make judge they’re not formed fraudulently. If that process doesn’t commencement earlier Election Day, it tin backmost up nan count.

Some states, specified arsenic Arizona, besides springiness voters whose message ballots were rejected because nan signatures didn’t lucifer up to 5 days to beryllium they really formed nan ballot. That intends last numbers simply cannot beryllium disposable Tuesday night.

Election rules are to blasted successful immoderate states

Some of nan sluggishness is owed to state-specific predetermination rules. In Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, 2 of nan astir important plaything states, predetermination officials for years person pleaded pinch Republican lawmakers to alteration nan rule that prevents them from processing their message ballots earlier Election Day. That intends message ballots get tallied late, and often nan results don’t commencement to get reported until aft Election Day.

Democrats person traditionally dominated message voting, which has made it look for illustration Republicans are successful nan lead until nan early hours of nan adjacent morning, erstwhile Democratic message votes yet get added to nan tally. Experts moreover person names for this from past elections — nan “red mirage” aliases nan “blue shift.” Trump exploited that move successful 2020 erstwhile he had his supporters request an abrupt extremity to ballot counts — nan ballots that remained untallied were mostly message ones that were for Joe Biden. It’s not clear really that will play retired this year, since Republicans person shifted and voted successful large numbers during early voting.

Michigan utilized to person akin restrictions, but aft Democrats won power of nan authorities Legislature successful 2022 they removed nan prohibition connected early processing of message ballots. That state’s Democratic Secretary of State, Jocelyn Benson, said she hopes to person astir results disposable by Wednesday.

“At nan extremity of nan day, main predetermination officials are nan folks who person nan expertise to supply those meticulous results. Americans should attraction connected what they opportunity and not what immoderate circumstantial campaigner aliases folks who are portion of nan run say,” said Jen Easterly, head of nan U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency.

Trump friends impulse him to state triumph swiftly

Some of Trump’s friends opportunity he should beryllium moreover much fierce astir declaring triumph this clip around.

Longtime Trump state Steve Bannon, who successful 2020 predicted nan then-president would state triumph earlier nan title was called, advocated for a akin strategy during a caller property convention aft he was released from national prison, wherever he was serving clip for a contempt of Congress condemnation related to nan investigation into Trump’s effort to overturn his nonaccomplishment successful 2020.

“President Trump came up astatine 2:30 successful nan greeting and talked,” Bannon said. “He should person done it astatine 11 o’clock successful 2020.”

Other Trump supporters person taken a darker tone. His erstwhile nationalist information adviser, Michael Flynn, suggested during a caller question and reply connected nan right-wing American Truth Project podcast that unit could erupt successful states still counting ballots nan time aft Election Day because group “are conscionable not going to put up pinch it.”

Trying to task a consciousness of inevitability astir a Trump win, nan erstwhile president and his supporters person been touting early ballot information and favorable polls to contend nan predetermination is each but over. Republicans person returned to voting early aft mostly staying distant astatine Trump’s guidance successful 2020 and 2022. In immoderate plaything states that way statement registration, registered Republicans are outvoting Democrats successful early voting.

But that doesn’t mean Republicans are up successful immoderate meaningful sense. Early voting information does not show you who will triumph an predetermination because it only records who voted, not really they voted.

Vice President Kamala Harris’ run has been explicitly targeting Republicans disillusioned by Trump. In each of those states wherever much Republicans person voted, location besides are immense numbers of voters casting early ballots who are not registered pinch either of nan 2 awesome governmental parties. If Harris won conscionable a mini fraction much of those votes than Trump, it would erase nan mini leads Republicans have.

There’s only 1 measurement to find retired who won nan statesmanlike election: Wait until capable votes are tallied, whenever that is.