The view from abroad: Foreign policy in the 2024 US presidential election

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LONDON -- The showdown betwixt Vice President Kamala Harris and erstwhile President Donald Trump will successful galore ways beryllium a prime betwixt overseas argumentation continuity and change.

Harris has mostly stuck to President Joe Biden's world agenda, 1 successful which nan outgoing leader sought to revive accepted American statesmanship aft 4 turbulent years of Trump.

Biden's clip successful office, though, has seen a awesome deterioration successful world stability. The adjacent president will travel to powerfulness successful nan midst of 2 awesome wars -- 1 successful Europe and 1 successful nan Middle East -- successful which nan U.S. is profoundly involved.

Trump is bidding for a 2nd word pinch copy promises of "America first" pinch "peace done strength," accusing Biden, Harris and galore different leaders of facilitating world instability done weakness and incompetence.

The Democratic summons is framing Trump arsenic a chaotic leader easy taken advantage of by much wily overseas adversaries.

As Americans caput to nan polls connected Tuesday, nan world will beryllium watching arsenic intimately arsenic ever.

Russia and Ukraine

Russia's warfare connected Ukraine has dominated Biden's presidency. In nan early days and weeks, his management stood down Kyiv arsenic Ukrainian troops stubbornly halted President Vladimir Putin's expansive subject gambit.

The White House has since sought to prime a way that ensures Ukrainian endurance and inflicts strategical conclusion connected Russia, without dragging nan U.S. and its NATO friends into a perchance atomic confrontation pinch Moscow.

The balancing enactment has prompted disapproval from Kyiv, pinch leaders location disappointment by stalled ambitions for NATO membership, nan velocity of weapons deliveries, nan value of arms provided and geographical restrictions connected their use.

Harris appears successful lockstep pinch Biden's Ukraine policy. "I person been proud to guidelines pinch Ukraine," nan vice president said successful September. "I will proceed to guidelines pinch Ukraine. And I will activity to guarantee Ukraine prevails successful this war."

Oleksandr Merezhko, a personnel of nan Ukrainian parliament and nan chair of nan body's overseas affairs committee, told ABC News, "The destiny of Ukraine depends connected nan U.S., connected its subject assistance and -- possibly astir importantly -- connected its leadership."

"Frankly speaking, I want these elections to beryllium over, because aft nan elections we will person a much aliases little definite image of what we tin count connected and what nan U.S. argumentation toward Ukraine will be," he added.

Trump's longtime nationalist praise of Putin and past impeachment linked to Ukraine prompts interest successful Kyiv, arsenic do his proposals for a speedy bid colony that whitethorn manus Moscow power of swaths of eastbound Ukraine and artifact Kyiv from early NATO membership.

Ukrainians will beryllium hopeful that Trump's run way rhetoric will morph nether nan weight of nan Resolute desk.

"To maine they person different mindsets -- Harris has a legalistic worldview because of her master background, and Trump has an economical worldview," Merezhko said. "But they mightiness travel to nan aforesaid argumentation regarding Ukraine."

"That's why we request to find persuasive capable arguments for Trump," Merezhko said, for illustration framing support for Ukraine arsenic an economical boon for nan U.S. and its nonaccomplishment arsenic inflationary for NATO's eastbound deterrence efforts.

Pavel Luzin, a Russian governmental expert astatine The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, told ABC News that Russia is "definitely putting its stake connected Trump."

"People successful nan Kremlin judge that he will go a facet of turbulence successful subject assistance to Ukraine, successful relations pinch NATO friends and domestically present successful nan U.S.," he said.

The Middle East

Hamas' Oct. 7, 2023, onslaught into confederate Israel spawned a conflagration that has since dispersed to see 7 fronts -- a number of which person seen American forces engaged successful nonstop combat pinch Iran and its location proxies.

The statesmanlike predetermination will return spot pinch vicious fighting ongoing successful Gaza and successful confederate Lebanon, while Israeli airstrikes pummel what nan Israel Defense Forces calls violent targets crossed Lebanon and nan Gaza Strip -- each while dozens of Oct. 7 hostages, among them 4 Americans, stay unaccounted for successful Gaza.

Biden's evident deficiency of sway complete nan rumor has disappointment pro-Palestinian and pro-Lebanese groups successful America -- peculiarly Arab Americans and different taste number groups -- and emboldened Trump, who has attacked some Biden and Harris arsenic weak.

Hafed Al-Ghwell of nan SAIS Foreign Policy Institute investigation halfway told ABC News that nan stakes of nan coming predetermination are enormously high" for nan Middle East, though he added, "U.S. unequivocal support for Israel is ne'er going to change, nary matter who is nan president."

"If Harris wins, she whitethorn mean a small nan Biden administration's attack to nan Israeli warfare connected Gaza and Lebanon," Al-Ghwell added. "But I uncertainty very overmuch she's going to displacement gears connected it successful immoderate awesome way."

Trump's Middle East grounds includes nan arguable determination to move nan U.S. embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, his withdrawal from nan Iran atomic woody -- officially known arsenic nan Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action -- and consequent "maximum pressure" run connected Iran, nan Abraham Accords and his unrealized "deal of nan century" bid plan. All awesome initiatives aligned intimately pinch Israel's -- and usually Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's -- interests.

"Trump is not going to beryllium immoderate different than nan Trump we saw before," Al-Ghwell said, though he added that is not needfully a hindrance successful conducting location affairs.

"Most of nan Arab governments look to for illustration Trump," he said. "Some Arab governments for illustration him because he is simply a transactional guy. They tin woody pinch him without having to woody pinch a president who lectures them connected values of populist and quality rights."

China and Taiwan

Trump and Biden contested nan 2020 predetermination trying to out-do each different connected China, some seeking to task nan image of a leader consenting and capable to look down 1 of America's astir pressing strategical challenges.

Harris, nan Lowy Institute deliberation vessel suggested successful October, "is mostly a blank slate connected China policy. She is apt to instrumentality to Biden argumentation positions and instincts, which intends relations will stay rocky."

"Chinese experts person publically proclaimed that whoever nan victor is, some candidates are 'poison' for China," nan Brookings Institution deliberation tank's Yun Sun wrote successful May erstwhile Biden was still nan expected Democratic candidate.

Biden's attack "might bring much stableness to bilateral relations, but his title strategy has been rather effective economically and diplomatically, leaving China's high-tech manufacture and negotiated violative successful limbo," she said.

Trump's pugnacious marque of overseas argumentation whitethorn activity successful Beijing's favor, she added, noting that nan erstwhile president's "position connected U.S. alliances and partnerships and nan harm he mightiness origin serves Beijing's strategical schedule successful nan agelong run."

As pinch Russia and North Korea, Trump twinned his fierce posture pinch praise of China's leader. President Xi Jinping, he said, was "brilliant," and a "top of nan line" president who ruled pinch "an robust fist."

But contempt his evident admiration for Xi, Yun wrote that Trump's "unpredictability and his usage of maximum unit will put China successful highly difficult corners, making him nan little desirable action from China's perspective."

This screengrab taken from handout video footage released by China's People's Liberation Army Eastern Theater Command connected Oct. 14, 2024 shows a combatant pitchy taking disconnected from nan Liaoning eastbound craft bearer of Taiwan during subject drills.

U.S. argumentation connected Taiwan -- which Beijing considers an inextricable portion of China contempt nan island's independency since 1949 -- is simply a awesome consideration.

"The disposable grounds suggests nan likeliest script would beryllium 1 of wide continuity from nan Biden administration" if Harris wins nan election, Richard C. Bush and Ryan Hass wrote for nan Brookings Institution successful October.

Still, Harris has been avoidant connected committing to defending nan land against China aggression -- arsenic Biden has done -- which whitethorn raise concerns. Bonnie Glasser of nan German Marshall Fund wrote successful September that Harris whitethorn opt for "strategic ambiguity" connected nan issue.

Trump unsettled Taiwan by suggesting nan state salary nan U.S. for its defense and much precocious accusing nan land of stealing nan U.S. semiconductor spot industry.

"Taiwanese are of people very concerned astir nan U.S. statesmanlike election, for it impacts U.S.-China relations and Taiwan stands connected nan very frontline of that bipolar strategical rivalry," Wen-Ti Sung, a governmental intelligence based successful Taipei, told ABC News

"Too overmuch remains uncertain," Sung said. "Harris will apt beryllium a comforting continuation of nan Biden-Harris administration's argumentation towards Taiwan. The familiarity pinch each other's personnel, processes and priorities betwixt nan Democratic management and Taiwan has nan psychological use of familiarity."

When asked astir nan threat, Zhu Fenglian -- a spokesperson for China's Taiwan Affairs Office -- said successful a property briefing connected Oct. 30 without naming Trump that an "American first" posture intends "Taiwan astatine immoderate clip whitethorn move from a pawn to a discarded child."

North and South Korea

The U.S.-North Korea détente was arguably 1 of nan much astonishing developments of Trump's clip successful office. He and Kim Jong Un went from slinging nationalist insults and threats of "fire and fury" to exchanging lukewarm letters complete nan life of nan Trump White House.

The president attended a Singapore acme pinch Kim successful 2018 and moreover crossed into nan Demilitarized Zone betwixt nan 2 Koreas to shingle hands pinch nan North Korean leader successful 2019.

Trump perturbed Seoul by demanding it lend much costs to support U.S. troops stationed successful South Korea. The Biden management signed a five-year cost-sharing statement pinch Seoul successful October, but location is simply a chance Trump mightiness look to renegotiate nan woody to put his stamp connected it arsenic president.

Jong Eun Lee of North Greenville University wrote successful The Diplomat past period of interest among blimpish South Koreans that Trump whitethorn work together to deals pinch Kim that undermine Seoul's position, particularly if they successful immoderate measurement acknowledged Pyongyang's atomic position aliases reduced U.S. troops numbers connected nan peninsula.

In July, Trump suggested he would look to revive speech pinch Pyongyang if he returns to nan Oval Office. "It's bully to get on pinch personification that has a batch of atomic weapons aliases otherwise," Trump said while accepting nan Republican nomination. "He'd for illustration to spot maine backmost too," Trump said of Kim. "I deliberation he misses me."

North Korea's state-run Korean Central News Agency's consequence was not truthful effusive.

"Even if immoderate management takes agency successful nan U.S., nan governmental climate, which is confused by nan infighting of nan 2 parties, does not alteration and, accordingly, we do not attraction astir this," nan KCNA wrote.

NATO and nan European Union

Trump's nationalist NATO-skepticism was a cardinal constituent of his world image successful his first term, and a repeated taxable of disapproval by Atlanticists connected some sides of nan ocean. It was possibly successful this arena that Trump's transactionalist overseas argumentation was astir pronounced.

Trump's request that NATO nations salary their "fair share" was not a caller gripe from nan U.S. -- concerns astir "burden sharing" person been changeless done American administrations since astatine slightest President Barack Obama came to power, resulting successful nan 2014 2% of GDP subject spending promise signed by each allies.

But Trump's attack to nan problem was novel. According to management officials including erstwhile nationalist information advisor John Bolton, nan erstwhile president moreover threatened to retreat nan U.S. from NATO -- a measurement that would beryllium catastrophic for nan confederation -- unless different members quickly and publically accrued subject spending.

The confederation has importantly accrued that spending, peculiarly since nan opening of Russia's warfare connected Ukraine. But Trump has not fto up while connected nan run trail, continuing to undermine nan corporate defense committedness that serves arsenic nan instauration of nan bloc.

Liana Fix of nan Council connected Foreign Relations said successful July that NATO nether a second-term Trump would beryllium "less a value-based alliance, and much a pay-for-service business deal."

The Biden management has, for illustration its predecessors, pushed NATO friends to meet their subject spending commitments. Harris whitethorn good support nan pressure, though apt pinch much carrot than stick.

"As President, I will guidelines beardown pinch Ukraine and our NATO allies," Harris said erstwhile accepting nan Democratic statesmanlike information successful August.

The vice president criticized Trump's stance, suggesting successful a February reside that "some" group look to "flout communal understandings among nations, to clasp dictators and adopt their repressive tactics, and wantonness commitments to our friends successful favour of unilateral action."

Many NATO friends are besides members of nan EU, pinch which Trump besides has notable governmental and economical grievances.

"Many of Trump's stated policies would straight harm European economical interests, upset nan world economical bid connected which nan EU relies and undermine European objectives successful areas for illustration ambiance change," nan Centre for European Reform deliberation vessel wrote past month.

It noted a caller Goldman Sachs estimate that Trump's stated policies could spot distant arsenic overmuch arsenic 1% of Europe's GDP.

A Harris triumph "would successful astir respects correspond continuity pinch Biden's," nan CER wrote successful different report.

"But moreover a Harris triumph would not prevention Europeans from difficult choices complete really to support Ukraine, aliases change America's gradual tilt distant from Europe -- though it whitethorn slow it temporarily," that study noted.

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