The Aaron Judge-Shohei Ohtani numbers that could make World Series difference

On nan surface, it seems for illustration there’s hardly thing that separates Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani this year. 

The megastars are monolithic favorites to triumph nan American League and National League MVP awards, respectively.

Judge led MLB successful nan regular play pinch 58 homers, 144 RBIs, a .458 on-base percentage, a .701 slugging percent and a 1.159 OPS.

Ohtani was 2nd successful each categories pinch 54 homers, 130 RBIs, a .390 on-base percentage, a .646 slugging percent and a 1.036 OPS. 

Their contracts — a nine-year, $360 cardinal woody for Judge and a 10-year, $700 cardinal woody for Ohtani — rank 4th and first successful MLB successful full value.

They’re separated by conscionable 2 years — Judge is 32, while Ohtani is 30. 

Ohtani’s uncommon double expertise arsenic an elite pitcher arsenic good arsenic a hitter would beryllium a earthy constituent of difference, but he hasn’t sounded this twelvemonth aft undergoing Tommy John room successful September 2023.

For nan clip being, that’s a moot point. 

So, wherever do they differ? 

The astir evident is successful their baserunning. Ohtani’s velocity is simply a existent weapon, signaling 59 stolen bases successful nan regular play to Judge’s 10.

Ohtani became nan first subordinate to deed astatine slightest 50 homers and bargain astatine slightest 50 bases successful a season. 

Now, really do they comparison beyond nan aboveground successful much precocious stats? Let’s commencement pinch nan regular play first. 

Plate discipline 

Judge swung astatine 17.7 percent of pitches extracurricular nan onslaught zone, according to FanGraphs. Ohtani was acold little disciplined, swinging astatine 26.0 percent of pitches extracurricular nan zone. 

That matches Judge’s much diligent attack — he swung astatine 42 percent of full pitches he saw, while Ohtani was astatine 47.3 percent. 

Plate tendencies 

Ohtani’s lefty-righty splits are overmuch much stark than Judge’s. Ohtani, a lefty, had a 1.128 OPS facing righties versus a .867 OPS against lefties. Judge, a righty, had a 1.132 OPS facing righties compared to a 1.240 OPS against lefties. 

Ohtani is overmuch much of a propulsion hitter. He pulled 48 percent of his batted balls, while Judge pulled 35 percent of his. Judge utilizes halfway section overmuch more, hitting 50 percent of his batted balls location compared to Ohtani’s 36 percent. 

Neither struggled against immoderate 1 pitch. Of pitches Judge saw astatine slightest 60 times, his lowest OPS was .861, connected curveballs. He had a .998 OPS aliases higher against each different pitches. He was champion against speed, owning a 1.247 and 1.272 OPS against fastballs and sinkers, respectively. 

Ohtani’s lowest OPS against pitches he saw astatine slightest 60 times was an .832 people against cutters. His OPS was .944 aliases higher against each different pitches. 

Ohtani sees acold much first-pitch strikes, astatine 60.2 percent, than Judge does astatine 51.8 percent. 

Batted balls 

Ohtani hits acold much crushed balls — 40.0 percent of his batted balls, compared to Judge’s 30.0 percent. They deed alert balls astatine akin rates — Judge astatine 55 percent, Ohtani astatine 52 percent — but Judge hits importantly much statement drives astatine 15.0 percent compared to Ohtani’s 8.0 percent. 

They some deed nan shot highly difficult — Judge had a 45.0 percent hard-hit percent connected batted balls, while Ohtani was astatine 44.0. But Judge made amended interaction much consistently, hitting 26.9 percent of batted balls connected nan tube compared to Ohtani’s 21.4 percent. That is astir apt why Judge has a somewhat higher mean exit velocity astatine 96.2 miles per hr compared to Ohtani’s 95.8 mph. 

Judge has a higher mean motorboat perspective arsenic well, astatine 18.9 degrees compared to Ohtani’s 16.2 degrees. 

Environment/pressure 

Both were somewhat amended astatine home. Judge had a 1.218 OPS astatine Yankee Stadium compared to a 1.106 OPS people connected nan road, while Ohtani was astatine 1.091 astatine Dodger Stadium and .985 connected nan road. 

Judge was amended pinch runners successful scoring position pinch a 1.219 OPS compared to Ohtani’s .905 mark. 

Judge thrived nan astir early successful games — pinch a 1.288 OPS successful nan first 3 innings, 1.061 successful nan mediate 3 innings and 1.041 successful nan past 3 innings. Ohtani was astatine his worst early successful games, pinch a .972 OPS successful nan first 3 innings, 1.128 successful nan mediate 3 and 1.053 successful nan last three. 

Playoffs 

Now, let’s zoom successful connected really each has fared this postseason entering nan World Series. 

Judge has a .161/.317/.387 slash statement pinch a .704 OPS, 2 homers and 6 RBIs. 

Ohtani has a .286/.434/.500 slash statement pinch a .934 OPS, 3 homers and 10 RBIs. 

Clearly, Ohtani enters nan hotter hitter. Will that extremity up being nan biggest difference? Or will thing other look arsenic an X factor?