Tens of millions of early votes have been cast. What could it mean for Election Day?

As Election Day nears, tens of millions of voters person already formed their ballots passim nan country.

Whether done mail-in ballots aliases early in-person polling stations, much than 68 cardinal Americans, astir 43% of nan 2020 turnout, had voted against opinionated successful statement connected Election Day arsenic of Friday afternoon, according to information from nan University of Florida's Election Lab.

Residents hold successful a statement astir metropolis hallway to formed their ballots connected nan past time of early voting successful Philadelphia, Pa., Oct. 29, 2024.

Matthew Hatcher/AFP via Getty Images

Academic experts, reporters, pundits, nan astir apt astir each -- nan statesmanlike candidates -- person been going done basal and constricted information gleaned from nan early voting numbers, trying to get clues astir next's week's outcome.

That picture, however, is not precisely achromatic and white, according to Charles Stewart, head of nan Massachusetts Institute of Technology's predetermination information subject lab.

"It's for illustration talking astir nan weather," he said. "The candidates, nan press, etcetera -- really are trying to tie conclusions conscionable connected nan look worth of nan data, but location really isn't a batch location to opportunity who is winning."

That said, Stewart said nan early voting information does supply immoderate insights erstwhile it comes to this year's voting patterns and wide turnout -- indicators that could thief explicate really nan predetermination turns out.

A flip successful nan ways group early vote

Voting trends person shown that much group person been choosing to formed their ballots earlier Election Day, and this has accrued successful numbers complete nan past 30 years, but 2020 turned retired to beryllium a awesome outlier, according to Stewart.

In nan past statesmanlike election, 69% of nan 158 cardinal full votes were formed earlier Election Day either done nan mail, which included message ballots dropped disconnected successful person, aliases astatine early voting canvass sites, according to information from MIT.

Some 43% of nan 2020 early votes came from message ballots, according to nan data.

Stewart said nan COVID-19 pandemic forced galore voters, who were already heavy engaged and wanted to beryllium safe, to opt into utilizing message ballots aliases smaller voting lines if available.

"There was a speculation of what would hap pinch nan displacement erstwhile nan pandemic was over," he said.

However, successful this year's early voting there's been a driblet successful voters choosing mail-in voting, Stewart said.

A elector drops a ballot into nan ballot driblet container astatine nan Maricopa County Tabulation and Election Center (MCTEC) successful Phoenix, Ariz., Oct. 23, 2024.

Olivier Touron/AFP via Getty Images

"The main inclination I'm seeing is that nan liking of voting by message has shifted to voting in-person," Stewart said.

He noted that displacement is evident successful Georgia, which has seen grounds early voting numbers, pinch complete 3.8 cardinal ballots formed arsenic of Friday. Roughly 92% of those were formed astatine in-person polling places and nan remainder via mail, according to nan Georgia Secretary of State's office.

Stewart said immoderate states, including plaything states Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Arizona, only connection early voting done in-person absentee options. Under this option, a elector must petition an absentee ballot, capable it out, and past deposit it successful either a ballot container aliases astatine a designated location, and they are counted arsenic a message ballot voter.

Some voters whitethorn not person nan clip aliases power to spell done those other steps to formed their ballots early, and are apt going to ballot in-person Stewart said.

"If you person to ballot early successful personification you person to fig retired wherever that precinct is but you person to find retired which is person to your location aliases errands. With voting by mail, you person to return nan effort to apply, to capable it retired and return it and dream that nan message is delivered connected time," he said. "With Election Day voting you apt person a polling tract that is overmuch person to you."

Early-voting method penchant hasn't nan only point that's seen a flip, according to Stewart.

Partisan numbers do not springiness immoderate denotation of outcome

Stewart said humanities trends show that nan mostly of early voters made their decisions a agelong clip agone and are apt politically active.

This year's information shows that to beryllium nan case, he said, spot noted a awesome alteration successful partisan turnout successful respective battleground states, according to nan University of Florida's Election Lab.

Clark County Election Department canvass workers cheque successful voters astatine a array arsenic group ballot astatine nan Meadows Mall successful Las Vegas, Nev., Oct. 21, 2024.

Ethan Miller/Getty Images

Registered Republicans person seen a higher early voting turnout successful battlegrounds Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina successful this predetermination compared to 2024 arsenic of Friday, according to nan data.

Typically, Democrats person had an advantage successful early voting. However, Trump has pushed his supporters to formed their ballot earlier and that appears to person an impact, Stewart said.

While Republican officials person been touting these higher numbers arsenic a motion of increasing support, Stewart warned location is much nuance to nan data.

He noted it shows, truthful far, that a ample number of nan registered Republicans who formed their votes eary came from group who voted connected Election Day successful 2020 and were not caller voters.

Stewart said this would mean location would beryllium less Republican voters casting their ballots connected Election Day and frankincense their votes whitethorn not beryllium reported until overmuch later connected predetermination nighttime aliases moreover for days afterward.

A female holds up her sticker that signifies that she has officially voted successful nan authorities of Georgia, successful Atlanta, Ga., Oct. 31, 2024.

Jason Allen/AP

In 2020, galore plaything states saw their Democratic tallies emergence passim nan predetermination nighttime and into nan week, creating a "red mirage" effect connected nan outcome.

That mirage and "blue wave" could beryllium muted this clip around, Stewart said.

"Whatever nan bluish displacement is, location will astir apt beryllium little of a steep slope to it," he said.

What do gender, title opportunity astir nan early vote

Democrats person been touting nan gender spread arsenic a facet successful their favour successful nan early voting numbers, arsenic complete 54% of women person formed their ballot arsenic of Friday, according to nan University of Florida data.

Stewart said that presumption is not noteworthy.

Women person ever been nan mostly of nan electorate successful statesmanlike elections, going arsenic acold backmost arsenic 1980, according to the Center for Women and Politics astatine Rutgers University.

Stewart said this is besides existent of early voters.

"It's not ever evident to nan nationalist that there's ever been a gender gap," he said.

People ballot astatine a nationalist room turned to an early to an early voting polling position successful Black Mountain, N.C., Oct. 29, 2024.

Yasuyoshi Chiba/AFP via Getty Images

When it comes to race, achromatic voters are much apt to formed their votes by message than Black voters, according to nan MIT data.

Stewart said this stems from traditions going backmost to nan civilian authorities movement.

"African Americans fought and sometimes died for being capable to march into nan voting booth. That's been instilled successful nan community," he said.

This believe is 1 facet successful ample numbers of Black voters heading to in-person early voting canvass sites successful states specified arsenic Georgia and South Carolina, wherever that action is available.

Churches, civilian authorities groups and different organizations pinch ties to nan Black organization person been pushing voters to caput to nan early voting polls, utilizing campaigns specified arsenic "souls to nan polls" truthful that they tin debar immoderate complications connected Election Day.

Groups successful Georgia successful peculiar person stressed voting early to circumvent immoderate of nan restrictive voting laws that person been put successful spot since nan 2020 election.

People ballot astatine a nationalist room turned to an early to an early voting polling position successful Black Mountain, N.C., Oct. 29, 2024.

Yasuyoshi Chiba/AFP via Getty Images

As of Friday evening, much than 1 cardinal Black voters person formed their ballots, according to nan Georgia Secretary of State's office.

"The mobilization efforts person intelligibly proven effective," Stewart said.

Signs constituent to precocious turnout

Stewart said nan 1 definite conclusion that tin beryllium drawn from nan early voting information is that this year's wide turnout will beryllium "on par" pinch 2020's, which was nan highest elector turnout by percent successful complete 100 years.

"It could beryllium nan precocious 160 (million)," he estimated.

Stewart said that nan early-voting trends person shown that voters nether 25 person not yet voted and they will typically statement up connected Election Day.

"Those populations are really heavy represented connected Election Day," he said.

Stewart reiterated that pinch nan pandemic over, a bully number of nan 2020 early voters will apt displacement backmost to Election Day voting, particularly if it presents itself arsenic nan easier action for their locations and schedules.

Voting action trends complete nan decades

ABC News, MIT Election Data and Science Lab

As for nan future, Steward predicted that nan emergence successful Republican voters voting early will proceed successful early cycles on pinch nan wide inclination of nan electorate opting for early voting.

"The information is showing this integrated summation successful early voting moreover aft nan pandemic," he said. "Voters want much options, and they will earnestly see voting if they person much choices."