Puerto Rico prepares for Election Day as a third-party candidate makes history

SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico -- The 2 parties that person dominated Puerto Rican authorities for decades are losing their grip arsenic they look nan stiffest title yet from a younger procreation fed up pinch nan island’s corruption, chronic powerfulness outages and mismanagement of nationalist funds.

For nan first clip successful nan island's governor's race, a third-party campaigner has a powerful 2nd lead successful nan polls up of nan U.S. territory's predetermination Tuesday — and immoderate experts opportunity there’s a anticipation he could win.

“This predetermination is already historic,” said governmental expert and assemblage professor Jorge Schmidt Nieto. “It already marks a earlier and an after.”

Juan Dalmau is moving for Puerto Rico’s Independence Party and nan Citizen Victory Movement, established successful 2019. A Gaither world canvass this period shows Dalmau closing successful connected Jenniffer González, a personnel of nan New Progressive Party and Puerto Rico’s typical successful Congress. She hit Gov. Pedro Pierluisi successful their party’s superior successful June.

Gaither’s canvass shows Dalmau pinch 29% of support versus González’s 31% arsenic he astir caught up pinch her since a different canvass successful July showed him pinch only 24% compared pinch González’s 43%. Coming successful 3rd was Jesús Manuel Ortiz, of nan Popular Democratic Party, followed by Javier Jiménez of Project Dignity, a blimpish statement created successful 2019.

Puerto Rican authorities revolve astir nan island's status, and up until 2016, nan New Progressive Party, which supports statehood, and nan Popular Democratic Party, which supports nan position quo, would divided astatine slightest 90% of each votes during wide elections, Schmidt said.

But that year, U.S. Congress created a national power committee to oversee Puerto Rico’s finances aft nan authorities announced it was incapable to salary a much than $70 cardinal nationalist indebtedness load. In 2017, Puerto Rico revenge for nan biggest U.S. municipal bankruptcy successful history.

The indebtedness was accrued done decades of corruption, mismanagement and excessive borrowing, pinch Puerto Rico’s Electric Power Authority still struggling to restructure its much than $9 cardinal debt, nan largest of immoderate authorities agency.

Puerto Ricans person mostly rejected and resented nan board, created a twelvemonth earlier Hurricane Maria slammed into nan land arsenic a powerful Category 4 storm, razing nan electrical grid.

In 2020, Pierluisi won but received only 33% of votes. His force from nan Popular Democratic Party received 32%. It marked nan first clip either statement grounded to scope 40% of votes.

The powerfulness outages that person persisted since nan elections, coupled pinch nan slow gait of hurricane reconstruction, person disappointment and angered voters. Under Pierluisi, nan authorities signed contracts pinch 2 companies, Luma Energy and Genera PR, which together oversee nan generation, transmission and distribution of power. Outages person persisted, pinch nan companies blaming a grid that was already crumbling earlier nan hurricane deed owed to a deficiency of attraction and investment.

“Disastrous things person occurred during this four-year term, particularly pinch nan electrical energy,” Schmidt said. “It has affected everyone, sloppy of societal class.”

Voters, he said, are viewing Tuesday’s elections “as a infinitesimal of revenge.”

Dalmau said he would oust some companies successful an “organized fashion” wrong six months if he becomes governor. Ortiz said he would cancel Luma’s contract, while González has called for nan creation of an “energy czar” that would reappraisal imaginable Luma contractual breaches while different usability is found.

However, nary statement tin beryllium canceled without anterior support of nan national power committee and Puerto Rico’s Energy Bureau.

The candidates besides are nether unit to create affordable housing, little powerfulness bills and nan wide costs of living, trim convulsive crimes, boost Puerto Rico’s economy, pinch nan land locked retired of superior markets since 2015, and amended a crumbling wellness attraction strategy arsenic thousands of doctors flock to nan U.S. mainland.

Dalmau, who suspended his run for 2 weeks successful mid-October aft his woman had emergency encephalon surgery, besides has said he would destruct taxation breaks for able U.S. citizens from nan mainland.

Despite their promises to move Puerto Rico around, candidates look persistent elector apathy.

In 2008, 1.9 cardinal retired of 2.5 cardinal registered voters participated successful that year’s election, compared pinch 1.3 cardinal retired of 2.3 cardinal successful 2020.

This year, astir 99,000 caller voters registered and much than 87,000 reactivated their status, according to Puerto Rico’s State Elections Commission.

“A overmuch higher number was expected,” Schmidt said.

He noted that those mediate property and older favour González and her pro-statehood party, while those younger than 45 “overwhelmingly” favour Dalmau, which intends that if a mostly of young voters participate connected Tuesday and less older ones do so, he mightiness person a chance of winning.

The months starring up to nan Nov. 5 elections person been contentious.

Reggaetón superstar Bad Bunny paid for dozens of advertisement ads criticizing Puerto Rico’s 2 main parties. In response, nan governor’s New Progressive Party financed a advertisement advertisement suggesting an obscenity successful reference to Bad Bunny.

On Friday, nan vocalist published a page-long missive successful a section newspaper deriding González's pro-statehood party.

While nan creator has not endorsed immoderate section officials, nan sole personification he precocious began pursuing connected Instagram was Dalmau.

Meanwhile, a alleged “cemetery of corruption” was group up Thursday successful nan capital, San Juan, featuring ample black-and-white pictures of astir a twelve politicians from nan island’s 2 main parties who person been charged aliases sentenced by national authorities successful caller years. It was created by Eva Prados pinch nan Citizen Victory Movement, who is moving for Puerto Rico's House. By Friday, constabulary reported that nan pictures were destroyed aliases stolen.

As nan title heats up, nan number of general complaints astir alleged electoral crimes besides has increased. These see group who opportunity they received confirmations for early voting erstwhile they made nary specified request.

Voters connected Tuesday besides will beryllium asked for a seventh clip what Puerto Rico’s governmental position should be.

The nonbinding referendum will characteristic 3 choices: statehood, independency and independency pinch free association, nether which issues for illustration overseas affairs, U.S. citizenship and usage of nan U.S. dollar would beryllium negotiated.

Regardless of nan outcome, a alteration successful position requires support from nan U.S. Congress.

“For a batch of people, it’s a demoralizing workout to ballot successful a non-binding referendum,” said Christina Ponsa-Kraus, a professor astatine Columbia Law School. “The logic Puerto Ricans person voted 7 times is that each clip they vote, Congress doesn’t do anything.”

The push for a alteration successful position doesn’t dangle connected whether Kamala Harris aliases Donald Trump triumph successful nan U.S. mainland.

“The stakes are much than conscionable who becomes president, but who is successful power of Congress,” Ponsa-Kraus said arsenic she called connected Congress to connection Puerto Rico “non-colonial options.”

She added that it’s difficult to opportunity whether nan gubernatorial tally by Dalmau, who has agelong represented Puerto Rico’s Independence Party, would impact nan plebiscite vote.

“My consciousness is that … group tin separate betwixt a campaigner and a position option,” she said. “I judge that Puerto Ricans person historically not supported independency because they do not want to suffer their citizenship, and they do not want to suffer nan expertise to move backmost and distant freely betwixt nan mainland United States and nan island.”

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