Proposition 36 supporters say it will combat California's retail theft. Here's what to know.

Is unit crime successful California really up, and will Proposition 36 help?

Is unit crime successful California really up, and will Proposition 36 help? 04:30

California voters will soon determine connected a high-profile ballot measurement that would summation penalties for definite supplier and theft crimes. 

Last week, CBS News California took a person look astatine nan supplier component of Proposition 36 — besides known arsenic The Homeless, Drug Addiction and Theft Reduction Act. 

Here, we analyse whether unit theft is really connected nan emergence successful California and whether nan tough-on-crime Proposition 36 would really help. 

Are California unit crime rates up? Yes and no. 

We analyzed data from nan California Department of Justice (DOJ), which shows that statewide unit crime — which includes shoplifting, commercialized robberies and burglaries, and organized unit theft — reached its highest levels successful 2 decades successful 2023, pinch astir 213,000 reported incidents. 

Shoplifting and commercialized robbery successful 2023 were some astatine their highest levels since 1997 — however, location were astir 7 times nan number of shoplifting incidents than location were robberies. In 2023, nan number of reported non-residential burglaries was somewhat higher than successful pre-pandemic years but little than levels seen during nan pandemic. 

Statewide, reported shoplifting crimes accrued by astir 2% from nan 5 years earlier different arguable ballot measurement was passed by California voters to nan 5 years after. Passed successful 2014, Proposition 47 made difficult supplier possession and theft nether $950 misdemeanors alternatively of felonies. 

In 2015, instantly aft Proposition 47 was passed, location was a 12% summation successful statewide shoplifting, but those numbers ended up decreasing successful nan years after.

In 2023, reported shoplifting statewide roseate 26% from 2019 levels. However, past year's numbers for some shoplifting and wide unit crime were acold little than those of nan 1980s and 1990s, and nan trends alteration from region to county. 

Compared to pre-pandemic (2015-2019) averages, astir half of California counties saw an summation successful shoplifting successful 2023, while nan different half saw a decrease, according to authorities crime data. 

There were important jumps successful galore larger, much populated counties, but immoderate ample counties saw decreases. 

According to a Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) study of information from nan DOJ, a statewide summation successful wide unit theft betwixt 2019-2023 was mostly driven by "11 of nan state's 15 astir populous counties but mostly decreased successful smaller counties." 

For instance, nan PPIC study shows that rises successful unit crime successful Sacramento County, Alameda County, San Mateo County and Los Angeles County during those 5 years accounted for much than 90% of nan statewide summation complete that time. 

Property crime successful California, which includes each robberies, burglaries, and thefts sloppy of location, jumped above nan nationalist mean for nan first time after nan transition of Prop 47 successful 2015 and saw a gradual alteration afterward, authorities and national crime information show. 

However, nan statewide spot crime complaint has remained supra nan nationalist mean ever since that jump, pursuing nan transition of Prop 47, and has separated from nan nationalist mean much aft nan pandemic erstwhile galore countries relaxed criminal justness policies moreover more. 

"We had individuals successful our metropolis who were arrested aliases cited complete 15, 20, 25 times successful a play of 24 months," San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan said. "That civilization of a deficiency of accountability really started to return guidelines (during nan pandemic)." 

Why is unit crime up? That depends connected who you ask.

Mahan and Sacramento County District Attorney Thien Ho are among a increasing number of high-profile elected Democrats who support Proposition 36. 

"I deliberation it cuts to nan halfway of nan rhythm of superior addiction and unit theft and unsheltered homelessness," Mahan said.

CBS News California met Ho and Mahan astatine a bum encampment on nan Guadalupe River successful downtown San Jose, crossed from a Target shopping center. They described nan area arsenic a microcosm of nan request for voters to walk nan high-profile ballot measure. That is wherever we met a bum man named Richard. 

"Some group that person a supplier problem, they take to spell bargain something," he said. 

Richard said it's not uncommon for immoderate of his unhoused neighbors to bargain from adjacent stores. Whether they get cited for shoplifting, supplier use, aliases unauthorized camping, he said repetition misdemeanor tickets are not a deterrent. 

"I'm going to support getting tickets and support getting tickets," he said. 

Supporters of Proposition 36 opportunity nan ballot measurement is needed to hole nan unintended consequences of Proposition 47. 

"We took distant devices to intervene successful cycles of addiction that person an interplay pinch unit theft, pinch unsheltered homelessness," Mahan said. 

Ho noted that misdemeanor petty theft is simply a cite-and-release offense, which intends moreover repetition offenders mostly locomotion distant pinch a announcement to look successful court. 

"We person successful Sacramento complete 30,000 chair warrants for group that ne'er moreover show up," Ho said, echoing what Sacramento County Sheriff Jim Cooper said astatine a Senate Standing Committee connected Public Safety proceeding successful September. 

While nan first 2 offenses nether Proposition 36 would stay misdemeanors, nan ballot measurement would make a 3rd condemnation a felony. 

The No connected Proposition 36 run points to a alteration successful theft clearance rates — arrests for reported crimes — arsenic a cardinal facet successful nan emergence of nan statewide unit crime complaint aft nan transition of Prop 47 and again during nan pandemic. 

Simply put, critics for illustration Cristine Soto DeBerry — who wrote nan guidance statement to Proposition 36 — reason that theft is up because "no 1 is being arrested." 

Our CBS News California study of authorities crime information recovered that clearance rates dropped, first, aft Proposition 47 passed and again during nan pandemic. 

The statewide clearance complaint for thefts was astir 8% successful 2023, according to DOJ data. Clearance rates for theft peaked astatine much than 20% successful 1990 and declined steadily until astir 2000, wherever rates hovered astir 14-16% until 2014, erstwhile Proposition 47 was passed. 

Theft clearance rates past dropped aft 2014 and past dropped again to an all-time debased of 6% during nan pandemic. They've been somewhat expanding since. 

However, conscionable for illustration nan unit crime, clearance rates alteration by county, and much counties saw a driblet aft nan COVID-19 pandemic than aft nan passing of Proposition 47.

Soto DeBerry pointed to rule enforcement claims that they often can't respond to reports of theft owed to understaffing. She based on that Proposition 36 won't alteration that. 

"What deters group from committing crime is nan belief that they will get caught. That's it," Soto DeBerry said. 

Supporters of Proposition 36 opportunity it would incentivize officers to make an apprehension and create a greater deterrent for serial thieves. Under Prop 36, aft 2 misdemeanor theft convictions, a fishy tin look felony charges and up to 1 year in jail. But a judge tin besides connection curen alternatively of jailhouse to those struggling pinch narcotics aliases intelligence health.

In summation to expanding penalties for repetition unit theft, nan ballot measurement would create a caller treatment-mandated felony for repetition supplier convictions. 

Proposition 47 aliases nan COVID-19 pandemic?

The struggle to pinpoint nan origin of nan caller summation successful unit crime isn't only figuring retired if it was owed to lesser consequences aliases a little chance of getting caught. There's besides nan situation of pinpointing changes during different clip frames.  

For example, a PPIC study examining crime aft Prop 47 and nan pandemic found grounds that nan COVID-19 pandemic mightiness person had a stronger effect connected unit crime than Proposition 47 and that clearance rates are much intimately tied to unit crime increases than jailhouse aliases prison. 

The study recovered that while jailhouse and situation populations person dropped by a full of 30%, "the effect connected crime has been humble and limited." 

Lower incarceration arsenic a consequence of Proposition 47 apt only contributed to a astir 4% emergence successful car thefts and car break-ins (neither of which are unit crimes). Meanwhile, Proposition 47 clearance rates led to a 3% emergence successful burglaries, a 2% emergence successful car thefts and a 1% emergence successful thefts. 

However, nan study recovered that erstwhile jailhouse populations and burglary clearance rates fell during nan pandemic, "commercial burglaries roseate by a mixed 5.3%, representing astir one-third of nan summation observed complete that time. Some anemic grounds besides points to a 2021 emergence successful commercialized burglaries tied to debased clearance rates." 

The study did not see nan summation successful 2023 and it acknowledged that unit crime information is messy and not ever complete. Some stores whitethorn beryllium reporting less thefts to rule enforcement, while others whitethorn beryllium reporting more. 

"Given nan deficiency of information that accurately, completely, consistently, and credibly captures unit theft incidents, it is intolerable to reliably measure nan domiciled of Prop 47 connected unit theft," nan study read. 

One market shop worker we said with, who we'll telephone Laura, is conscionable 1 of galore connected nan beforehand lines of what has go a changeless and well-publicized unit theft conflict successful nan nation's astir populous state.

We agreed to conceal Laura's existent personality to protect her job. She said felt compelled to speak retired connected behalf of her coworkers, showing america videos of repeated thefts successful her store. 

"They cognize if nan constabulary moreover come, they're conscionable taken disconnected nan property, they move correct backmost astir and travel back," she said of offenders. 

Laura added that viral unit theft videos for illustration these don't show nan reality of unit theft. 

Many stores forbid labor from stopping shoplifters and, successful immoderate cases, occurrence labor who do, like this Safeway worker successful nan San Francisco Bay Area. 

"Everybody knows that we can't touch them," Laura said. 

Laura added that workers can't study each theft, and erstwhile they do telephone nan cops, thieves are often agelong gone earlier rule enforcement arrives. 

"It's not conscionable bum and nan supplier addicts," she said. "It is group coming successful Teslas, stepping retired pinch carts afloat of groceries." 

Even California Gov. Gavin Newsom has witnessed unit theft. He described to a group of California mayors connected a Zoom telephone really a Target clerk blamed him for nan rash of unit theft aft nan politician witnessed nan incident. 

The politician was a proponent of Proposition 47 and is now against Proposition 36. 

In August, Newsom signed a measure package into rule targeting organized unit theft and spot crimes. This package featured harsher punishments targeting repetition offenders. In September, Newsom signed different measure specifically targeting smash-and-grab robberies, mandating harsher sentences for incidents that consequence successful awesome theft and damages.

Laura hopes that stiffer penalties nether nan governor's measure package and Proposition 36 will incentivize officers to make much arrests and deter would-be thieves. She said that while it whitethorn not put an extremity to each unit theft, "we person sewage to do something."

In:
• Julie Watts Investigates
• Shoplifting
• KCAL News Investigates
• Retail Theft
• KPIX Investigates
• California
• CBS13 Investigates