Poll showing Harris up in Iowa throws 'monkey wrench' into election prognosis: Expert

A astonishing Iowa canvass that shows Vice President Kamala Harris pinch a flimsy lead successful nan authorities complete erstwhile President Donald Trump has thrown a "monkey wrench" into nan homestretch of nan campaign, according to Rick Klein, ABC News Washington bureau main and governmental director.

With a time to spell earlier Election Day, a Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll conducted by renowned Iowa pollster J. Ann Selzer showed Harris pinch a 47% to 44% advantage among apt voters complete Trump, who scored coagulated victories successful nan Hawkeye State successful 2016 and 2020 statesmanlike races.

How to watch ABC News unrecorded sum of 2024 predetermination results

The poll, released connected Saturday, follows a Des Moines Register/Mediacom canvass successful September that gave Trump a four-percentage-point lead complete Harris successful Iowa, and 1 successful June that had him pinch an 18-point lead complete President Joe Biden, who was past nan presumptive Democratic nominee.

Democratic statesmanlike nominee Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during a run arena astatine Montage Mountain Resort successful Scranton, Pa., Nov. 4, 2024.

Jacquelyn Martin/AP

"This really threw a monkey wrench into everyone's pre-election analysis," Klein said connected "ABC News Live" Sunday night. "This is simply a canvass successful Iowa – yes, Iowa – that has Kamala Harris starring by 3 points."

Trump took to societal media to onslaught some nan Des Moines Register canvass and Selzer, who has overseen nan Register's polls since 1987 and whom Klein described arsenic a "very reputable pollster."

“No President has done much for FARMERS, and nan Great State of Iowa, than Donald J. Trump,” Trump wrote successful a station connected his Truth Social web connected Sunday morning. “In fact, it’s not moreover close! All polls, isolated from for 1 heavy skewed toward nan Democrats by a Trump hater who called it wholly incorrect nan past time, person maine up, BY A LOT."

In a Des Moines Register canvass released conscionable earlier nan 2020 election, Selzer recovered Trump starring Biden 48% to 41%. Trump went connected to triumph Iowa 53% to 45%.

A female casts her ballot during early voting for nan US wide predetermination astatine a polling position astatine Ottawa Hills High School successful Grand Rapids, Michigan, Nov. 3, 2024.

Kamil Krzaczynski/AFP via Getty Images

"It's difficult for anybody to opportunity they saw this coming," Selzer told nan Des Moines Register of nan latest poll. "She [Harris] has intelligibly leaped into nan starring position."

"Age and gender are nan 2 astir move factors that are explaining these numbers," Selzer added.

Republican statesmanlike nominee erstwhile President Donald Trump arrives to speak astatine a run rally astatine J.S. Dorton Arena, Nov. 4, 2024, successful Raleigh, N.C.

Evan Vucci/AP

With conscionable hours remaining successful nan race, some candidates are moving to sway undecided voters and make their last pitches successful their bids for nan White House. Harris was campaigning Monday successful nan battleground authorities of Pennsylvania, while Trump was making run stops successful North Carolina and Pennsylvania.

More than 78 cardinal group had already voted arsenic of Monday afternoon, including a grounds number of in-person votes, according to nan University of Florida Election Lab.

"There aren’t galore group who deliberation Donald Trump is going to abruptly suffer nan authorities that he won by 8 points, but it mightiness bespeak immoderate of nan weakness he has pinch voters successful different states, including Wisconsin and Michigan," Klein said of nan Des Moines Register's latest poll.

Women for Republican statesmanlike nominee erstwhile President Donald Trump show their support arsenic he arrives to speak during a run rally astatine J.S. Dorton Arena, Nov. 4, 2024, successful Raleigh, N.C.

Evan Vucci/AP

An ABC News/Ipsos poll released Saturday showed Harris pinch an wide three-point advantage complete Trump among apt voters nationwide, 49% to 46%.

"The polls haven’t moved since Kamala Harris sewage successful nan race," Klein said Monday connected ABC's "Good Morning America," referring to nan ABC News/Ipsos poll, which shows support for either campaigner hasn't changed importantly since then.

Klein besides cited nan latest New York Times/Siena College poll showing Harris making up crushed successful immoderate of nan 7 battleground states. The canvass recovered that Harris is up successful Nevada by 3 points, up successful North Carolina and Wisconsin by 2 points and up by 1 constituent successful Georgia. The canvass recovered Trump was up successful Arizona by 4 points and that nan title was tied successful Pennsylvania and Michigan.

Supporters stitchery astir Democratic statesmanlike nominee U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris during her rally astatine Michigan State University successful East Lansing, Michigan, Nov. 3, 2024.

Elizabeth Frantz/Reuters

As acold arsenic nan gender spread goes, nan ABC News/Ipsos canvass recovered women wide going for Harris by 11 percent points, while women registered arsenic independent were supporting Harris by 18 percent points and women nether 30 were going for nan vice president by 40-plus points.

The ABC News/Ipsos canvass recovered Trump starring wide among men by 5 percent points, while men registered arsenic independent were going for Trump by 4 percent points and men nether 30 were siding pinch Trump by 5 percent points.

Klein said nan ABC News/Ipsos canvass besides recovered that 74% of Americans opportunity nan state is connected nan incorrect track, including half of Harris supporters and 98% of Trump supporters.

"Wild numbers," Klein said. "And those are nan kinds of things that are conscionable typically sadistic for an incumbent party, but, of course, this is an different twelvemonth successful truthful galore ways."