Moldovans are voting in a pivotal presidential runoff. But voter fraud threatens its democracy

CHISINAU, Moldova -- Moldovan historiographer and leader Octavian Ticu remembers erstwhile nan Soviet Union collapsed successful nan early 1990s, a seismic arena that enabled him to go 1 of nan first amateur boxers to conflict for his state astatine nan pinnacle of his sport: nan Olympic Games.

“It was a happy infinitesimal for me,” nan 52-year-old recalls, arsenic he wraps his fists astatine a boxing gym successful nan capital, Chisinau. “In 1996, I participated successful nan Olympics successful Atlanta. … If I were successful nan Soviet Union, I would ne'er person accomplished this.”

But today, much than 3 decades aft proclaiming independence, Moldova is being targeted by Russia successful a hybrid warfare of propaganda and disinformation that “wreaks havoc,” Ticu, who competed successful nan lightweight division, told The Associated Press.

Like Ukraine and Georgia, nan erstwhile Soviet republic aspires to subordinate nan European Union but is caught successful a changeless geopolitical tug betwixt Moscow and nan West.

“Russian propaganda is simply a reality of 30 years of independence,” added Ticu, who has written respective books connected his country’s history.

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This story, supported by nan Pulitzer Center for Crisis Reporting, is portion of an ongoing Associated Press bid covering threats to populist successful Europe.

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In a nationalist referendum connected Oct. 20, Moldovans voted by a razor-thin mostly of 50.35% successful favour of securing a way toward EU membership. But nan consequence was overshadowed by allegations of a Moscow-backed vote-buying scheme.

In a presidential predetermination held nan aforesaid day, incumbent pro-Western President Maia Sandu obtained 42% of nan vote, but grounded to triumph an outright majority. On Sunday, she will look Alexandr Stoianoglo, a Russia-friendly erstwhile charismatic general, successful a runoff viewed arsenic a prime betwixt geopolitical opposites — again.

As successful nan EU referendum, a canvass released this week by investigation institution iData indicates a tight title connected Sunday that leans toward a constrictive Sandu victory, an result that mightiness trust connected Moldova's ample diaspora.

The statesmanlike domiciled carries important powers successful areas specified arsenic overseas argumentation and nationalist security.

In nan aftermath of nan 2 October votes, Moldovan rule enforcement said that a vote-buying strategy was orchestrated by Ilan Shor, an exiled oligarch who presently lives successful Russia and was convicted successful absentia successful 2023 of fraud and money laundering. Prosecutors opportunity $39 cardinal was paid to much than 130,000 recipients done an internationally sanctioned Russian slope to voters betwixt September and October. Shor denies immoderate wrongdoing.

“These group who spell to Moscow, nan alleged government-in-exile of Ilan Shor, who travel pinch very ample sums of money, are near to roam free,” said Ticu, who ran arsenic a long-shot campaigner successful nan statesmanlike race.

It was “obvious,” Ticu added, that nan votes would “not beryllium adjacent aliases democratic.” Of nan 11 first-round candidates, he was nan only 1 to endorse Sandu successful nan runoff.

Voters from Moldova’s Kremlin-friendly breakaway region of Transnistria, which declared independency aft a short warfare successful nan early 1990s, tin formed ballots successful Moldova proper. Transnistria has been a source of hostility during nan war successful neighboring Ukraine, particularly since it is location to a subject guidelines pinch 1,500 Russian troops.

Ticu warned that if Russian troops successful Ukraine scope nan port metropolis of Odesa, they could “join nan Transnistrian region, and past nan Republic of Moldova will beryllium occupied."

In Gagauzia, an autonomous portion of Moldova wherever only 5% voted successful favour of nan EU, a expert was detained aft allegedly coercing 25 residents of a location for older adults to ballot for a campaigner they did not choose. Police said they obtained “conclusive evidence,” including financial transfers from nan aforesaid sanctioned Russian bank.

Anticorruption authorities person conducted hundreds of searches and seized complete $2.7 cardinal (2.5 cardinal euros) successful rate arsenic they effort to ace down.

On Thursday, prosecutors raided a governmental statement office and said 12 group were suspected of paying voters to prime a campaigner successful nan statesmanlike race. A criminal lawsuit was besides opened successful which 40 authorities agency labor were suspected of taking electoral bribes.

Instead of winning nan overwhelming support that Sandu had hoped, nan results successful some races exposed Moldova’s judiciary arsenic incapable to adequately protect nan democratic process. It besides allowed immoderate pro-Moscow guidance to mobility nan validity of nan votes.

Igor Dodon, nan Party of Socialists leader and erstwhile president who has adjacent ties to Russia, stated this week that “we don’t recognize” nan referendum result, and branded Sandu “a dictator successful a skirt” who will “do immoderate it takes to enactment successful power.”

Sandu admitted nan ballots suffered from unprecedented fraud and overseas meddling, which undermined nan results, calling nan interference a “vile attack” connected Moldova’s sovereignty.

“If nan judiciary does not aftermath up … if it closes its eyes to trading nan country, nan early of Moldova will beryllium successful threat for decades,” she warned.

Moldova is 1 of Europe’s poorest countries and has been deed difficult by ostentation since nan warfare started. Tatiana Cojocari, a Russia overseas argumentation master astatine Chisinau-based think-tank WatchDog, says this intends galore citizens could “fall prey to electoral corruption” for comparatively mini amounts of money.

“For Russia, it’s very important to person arsenic galore resources arsenic imaginable to activity with. It creates chaos, some informationally and politically,” Cojocari said, adding that Russia "has turned a spot to nan strategies of nan Cold War and uses them skillfully, only now adapted to societal media.”

In nan aftermath of Russia’s penetration of Ukraine successful 2022, Moldova applied to subordinate nan EU. It was granted campaigner position successful June of that year, and successful summertime 2024, Brussels agreed to commencement rank negotiations. The crisp Westward displacement irked Moscow and importantly soured relations pinch Chisinau.

Since then, Moldovan authorities person many times accused Russia of waging a immense “hybrid war,” from sprawling disinformation campaigns to protests by pro-Russia parties to vote-buying schemes that undermine countrywide elections. Russia has denied it is meddling.

Social media platforms person played a important domiciled successful disseminating Russian propaganda successful Moldova, says Andrei Rusu, a media monitoring master astatine WatchDog. “One of nan biggest lies is that if Moldovans subordinate nan EU, they will spell to warfare pinch Russia, they will suffer their religion and accepted values, aliases they will beryllium forced to travel LGBT propaganda," he said.

Moldovans who lived done nan Soviet Union, he added, tin struggle to spot Russian propaganda astir nan EU and nan West, and differentiate betwixt existent videos and ones generated by artificial intelligence, specified arsenic those that person often appeared online depicting Sandu.

In caller weeks, Meta and Telegram removed aggregate clone accounts that railed against nan EU and Sandu, and that expressed support for pro-Russian parties.

However, Moldova watchers pass that Moscow’s main target could beryllium nan 2025 parliamentary elections. Waning support for nan governing pro-Western Party of Action and Solidarity suggests it could suffer its mostly successful nan 101-seat legislature.

“We are already waiting for nan parliamentary elections to spot different strategies and strategies,” added Cojocari, nan Russia analyst. “This authorities will nary longer beryllium capable … to unafraid a parliamentary majority.”

Back astatine nan boxing gym, Ticu warned much must beryllium done to antagonistic overseas interference, aliases look a “danger of hybrid governance” pinch pro-Russian forces.

“Very bully laws person been adopted, but are not implemented,” he said. Russian President Vladimir “Putin does not want a warfare successful Moldova, he wants to show nan world and Europe a lawsuit successful which European integration policies person failed.”