In key New York suburb, House candidates are racing to the center: ANALYSIS

ROCKLAND COUNTY, NEW YORK -- In New York's 17th Congressional District, nan candidates present insist they're centrists. Just don't judge nan lies from nan different side.

GOP Rep. Mike Lawler, who first won his spot successful 2022 by less than 3,000 votes, said he wouldn't ballot for a national abortion ban, supports organized labour and opposes cuts to entitlement programs, each while keeping erstwhile President Donald Trump astatine arm's length. Mondaire Jones, nan erstwhile Democratic congressman he's moving against, supposedly detests Israel, wants to trim backing to cops and is doing nan bidding of nan progressive "squad," according to Lawler.

In Jones' telling, Lawler can't beryllium trusted connected abortion, wants to raise nan status property and is simply a pawn of hardliners for illustration Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La. Jones, meanwhile, said he supports further backing for rule enforcement and backs Israel, going truthful acold arsenic to endorse a victorious superior challenger to a squad personnel who had formed conspiracy theories astir Hamas' Oct. 7, 2023, violent attack.

Such is governmental life successful this suburban territory successful New York's Hudson Valley, 1 of nan country's astir competitory and a cardinal for each broadside successful nan quest for House control. At a clip erstwhile plaything voters are recoiling astatine nan party's nationalist reputations, nan candidates present are moving difficult to person voters they're thing but nan caricatures they perceive from nan different side, and nan authorities are thing but local.

"They're some trying to out-moderate each other, which is absorbing because you truthful seldom spot a title for nan middle," New York-based Democratic strategist Jon Reinish told ABC News. "I deliberation it's what astir voters successful this district, and not successful this district, really want."

A flood of advertising

The messages are being backed by tens of millions of dollars successful spending from each side, fueling an avalanche of television, integer and message advertizing that voters present told ABC News caught them disconnected guard.

Some areas successful this title person not ever been competitory and were formerly represented by Democrats for illustration Eliot Engel and Nita Lowey, elder lawmakers who ne'er sweated superior title successful their reelection bids successful their districts arsenic they were drawn astatine nan time.

Now, voters tin hardly unfastened their mailbox, hunt connected YouTube aliases move connected their televisions without being bombarded by messaging from nan campaigns.

That's connected apical of a relentless run schedule that has seemingly near hardly immoderate residents present unaware of who their candidates are.

At a Halloween-themed arena astatine Strawtown Elementary School successful West Nyack Friday, waves of children came moving up to Lawler asking for selfies and if he's "really Mike Lawler," apparently trying to fig retired if he was really Lawler aliases dressed up arsenic him -- but surely alert astatine a young property who he was, sloppy of their inability to ballot for him.

Rep. Mike Lawler, R-N.Y., greets young children astatine a Halloween arena astatine Strawtown Elementary School.

ABC News

The reception was typical, Lawler told ABC News, chiefly attributing nan nickname to YouTube ads.

And astatine a Halloween parade successful Nyack, a wide vicinity of Rockland County, Jones was greeted pinch cheers arsenic he walked done nan town. Lawler was greeted pinch a smattering of fist bumps arsenic he walked pinch his woman and daughter, arsenic good arsenic 1 female giving him 2 thumbs down.

Rep. Mike Lawler, R-N.Y., walks successful nan Nyack Halloween parade.

ABC News

Conversations pinch complete 2 twelve territory residents showed that voters mostly believed that their chosen campaigner would beryllium a reasonable character successful Congress and guidelines up to nan different side.

"He's ever honest, and he's done everything to show that he supports nan community, supports rule enforcement," Jason Rudnitsky, a detective for nan New York Police Department, said of Lawler. "Mondaire Jones has done things to beryllium that he stands pinch [Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez] and nan squad, and I don't judge successful what they guidelines for. And for that reason, I'm voting against them."

"I deliberation astatine this constituent we really request to person a Democratic Congress, particularly successful nan arena that Trump wins nan election, we request to person a counterbalance against him, and I deliberation Mondaire Jones is going to do a amended occupation of representing our territory overall," added Elias Kahn, a Westchester County elector who useful for a ineligible investigation company.

Local Democrats' float passes by astatine nan Nyack Halloween parade.

ABC News

Even connected policy, voters appeared focused connected nationalist issues. Only 1 elector successful nan respective conversations and events ABC News participated successful brought up section schoolhouse taxes. Instead, concerns mostly regarded migration (the confederate separator is astir 2,000 miles distant by car) and abortion (state rule presently protects abortion rights, but a ballot inaugural is seeking to formally adhd it to nan authorities constitution).

A reliable statesmanlike title colors nan House contest

The strategies of each campaigner to nationalize nan title make cleanable sense.

Trump mislaid this territory by 10 points successful 2020, meaning Lawler needs notable capable separation from his statement leader to stay viable and repetition what would apt beryllium different constrictive win.

But nan territory is not fertile crushed for progressive policies, riddled pinch concerns complete crime and ostentation but besides abortion and democracy, meaning Jones must asseverate his pragmatism and region himself from erstwhile friends and stances, including past comments astir defunding nan constabulary -- remarks he says were taken retired of context.

Their section signs show nan communicative -- Jones' opportunity he's a "Democrat for Congress." Lawler's simply opportunity he's moving for Congress, pinch immoderate dubbing him "Rockland's own."

Lawler's friends are assured nan incumbent has done capable activity to carve retired a unsocial capable identity, acknowledgment to a operation of his on-the-ground campaigning, a flood of advertizing and a tenure that now includes 2 years successful nan House and much successful different section positions.

"Everybody knows who Mike Lawler is now, and they person an belief of him," said New York GOP strategist William O'Reilly. "He knows really campaigns work, and he knows you person to bust your ass to get anyplace successful them."

When asked really assured he was that his type of Lawler was sinking in, Jones said he thinks "there are group who are learning still that Mike Lawler would beryllium a reliable vote" for Trump's priorities.

"We are moving truthful difficult to make judge group study that instruction successful nan adjacent 10 days who person not already learned that lesson. Every day, nan conversations get better," Jones told ABC News Saturday.

Former Rep. Mondaire Jones, D-N.Y., speaks astatine a campaigner forum successful Peekskill, N.Y.

ABC News

To beryllium certain, nan territory will still beryllium mostly influenced by nan statesmanlike title -- Lawler has to tally up of Trump, while Jones has to support each elector for Vice President Kamala Harris successful nan fold, and thing much than Trump's 10-point nonaccomplishment successful 2020 could make nan likelihood insurmountable for Republicans down ballot.

"Obviously, nan person it is, nan easier it is to tally nan separator up," Lawler told ABC News.

Still, voters and some candidates predicted a tight statesmanlike title here, making nan warfare complete cognition cardinal to nan House contenders' closing arguments. And while conversations pinch territory voters did not uncover galore who planned to divided their tickets for Harris and Lawler -- a affirmative motion for Jones -- immoderate Democrats did opportunity they were worried that group they cognize would do so.

"I americium a Democrat, but I'm not opposed to voting for a Republican if they person definite values that I'm looking for," said Moshe Amsel, a lawyer from Suffern who is voting for Harris but is still sifting done accusation astir Lawler and Jones earlier deciding who to back.

No reprieve until it's each done

In reality, nan truth astir nan candidates lies successful nan mediate of their battling depictions of each other.

Lawler has said he'll support Trump and Johnson and voted against Democratic messaging bills that would do things for illustration protect abortion entree and entitlement programs, though he's besides received praise from President Joe Biden and advised Trump to extremity discussing 2020 predetermination conspiracies. Jones ran arsenic a progressive successful his successful 2020 campaign, but he voted successful Congress for bills that added backing for rule enforcement and Israel.

But immoderate separator nan candidates tin drawback is cardinal present -- and for Congress overall.

Reliable nationalist polling has been scant, but nan surveys that person been released show a highly competitory House race. Democrats and Republicans desperately request to flip aliases clasp onto districts for illustration Lawler's if they are to power nan House travel 2025. With a winnowing number of competitory districts successful play crossed nan country, seats for illustration this are simply must-win, and nan parties are proving it pinch their checkbooks.

Voters present described emotion overwhelmed by each nan attraction connected nan race, lamenting nan flood of advertizing and wondering really they sewage added to truthful galore matter blasts from each party.

They apt won't find immoderate reprieve until Nov. 6.

"There's nary ignoring nan truth that it's 1 of nan astir competitory races successful nan country. And past there's a really aggravated attraction by donors, nan groups, nan statement apparatuses connected some sides of nan aisle," Reinish said. "It's very clear that this territory is nan epicenter of nan conflict for nan House and nan location of very fierce activity."