If the polls just closed, how can AP already declare a winner?

WASHINGTON (AP) — Control of nan White House and nan narrowly divided Senate and House whitethorn bent successful nan equilibrium on Nov. 5, but don’t expect election night to beryllium each nail-biters and barn burners. Chances are immoderate winners will beryllium declared earlier a azygous ballot has been tallied, conscionable arsenic nan polls adjacent successful those states.

So what gives?

Although determining a victor earlier immoderate votes person been counted whitethorn look counterintuitive, title calls astatine canvass closing clip successful uncontested aliases landslide races person been a regular portion of predetermination nights for decades, moreover though competitive, hotly contested races that tin return hours, days aliases moreover weeks to determine thin to beryllium nan astir memorable and pull nan astir attention.

The Associated Press will see aggregate factors and analyse disposable information earlier determining whether a victor tin beryllium declared erstwhile polls adjacent successful a fixed state. But nan AP will ne'er state nan result successful a competitory title earlier capable votes are counted to make nan victor clear.

Uncontested races

Many of nan races called conscionable arsenic nan polls adjacent are uncontested elections wherever only 1 campaigner appears connected nan ballot and is truthful nan only imaginable victor of nan race. Voters successful immoderate parts of nan state unrecorded successful multimember districts for offices specified arsenic authorities legislature, wherever much than 1 campaigner is elected successful a district. In those districts, an uncontested title is 1 wherever nan number of candidates connected nan ballot is adjacent to aliases little than nan number of seats disposable successful that district.

In nan 2024 wide election, nan AP will state winners successful astir 2,000 uncontested races, compared pinch astir 4,500 contested races.

Noncompetitive contests

Sometimes it’s imaginable to state winners astatine canvass closing clip successful noncompetitive races pinch aggregate candidates successful areas wherever 1 governmental statement has an established history of lopsided victories. In these cases, nan AP will analyse aggregate sources of disposable data, including nan results of AP VoteCast, a broad study of some voters and nonvoters that determines who voted, really they voted and why, to corroborate nan outcome.

The AP will not telephone a title erstwhile polls adjacent if AP VoteCast’s results bespeak a deviation from nan state’s long-standing governmental trends and voting history. AP VoteCast results will beryllium disposable for each 50 states, though only a mini number will beryllium considered arsenic imaginable canvass adjacent calls. There is nary AP VoteCast study successful nan District of Columbia, truthful nary title location will beryllium called erstwhile polls adjacent moreover though nan nation’s superior has a agelong history of overwhelming victories for Democratic candidates.

For example, nan AP’s canvass adjacent calls successful nan 2020 statesmanlike predetermination included Wyoming, a authorities that past voted for a Democrat successful 1968 and that Donald Trump won complete Joe Biden by 44 points; and Massachusetts, which past voted for a Republican successful 1984 and that Biden won by 34 points complete Trump.

A fistful of states and districts person aggregate canvass closing times because they are successful much than 1 clip zone. In these cases, nan AP will not state a victor earlier nan last canvass closing clip successful that authorities aliases district. Florida, Texas and immoderate others statesman to merchandise ballot results from astir of nan authorities soon aft polls adjacent successful nan earlier clip zone. Votes that are already counted from areas successful nan earlier clip zones will besides beryllium considered successful determining whether a victor tin beryllium declared astatine nan infinitesimal erstwhile nan past polls close.

Other predetermination information nan AP takes into relationship see an area’s voting history from caller elections, elector registration statistic and pre-Election Day polling.

When nan supra information points corroborate nan expected consequence successful a authorities wherever either awesome statement has a history of dominating elections, nan AP whitethorn telephone nan title arsenic soon arsenic voting ends.

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Read much astir really U.S. elections activity astatine Explaining Election 2024, a bid from The Associated Press aimed astatine helping make consciousness of nan American democracy. The AP receives support from respective backstage foundations to heighten its explanatory sum of elections and democracy. See much astir AP’s populist inaugural here. The AP is solely responsible for each content.