How turnout and persuasion could play out for Trump, Harris in battlegrounds

With specified a adjacent presidential race estimated successful nan battleground races, a big of factors could extremity nan 2024 election. We attraction connected 2 that person nan imaginable to origin nan key states to break toward Kamala Harris aliases Donald Trump. The first has to do pinch infrequent voters, and nan 2nd depends connected really successful nan Harris run is astatine peeling disconnected Trump's erstwhile supporters.

In bid to spot really these scenarios could play out, we tweak circumstantial parameters successful our Battleground Tracker model that is trained connected tens of thousands of study responses collected during nan campaign. The resultant estimates beneath exemplify a scope of possibilities to beryllium connected nan lookout for this week...

Scenario 1: Infrequent voters show up big, driven by Trump-leaning men

The swingiest conception of nan electorate — and astir challenging to estimate successful polling — consists of infrequent voters. We specify them present arsenic registered voters who didn't formed a ballot 4 years ago.

This group is "swingy" successful 2 ways — their ballot prime and whether they move retired astatine all. They study being much persuadable, successful that much of them are unsure of their determination aliases opportunity they mightiness astatine least consider the different candidate. And they are disproportionately young, without a history of voting each 2 to 4 years.

Infrequent voters are besides much apt to beryllium men than women. Notably, we person recovered that much men overestimate their likelihood of turning retired than women. Administrative information indicates that successful fact, women ballot astatine somewhat higher rates than men do.  

Before President Biden dropped out of nan title this summer, 2020 non-voters were leaning toward Trump nationally. Since Harris became nan Democratic nominee, they person looked very intimately divided betwixt her and Trump.

In nan battleground states, specifically, this group often still leans toward Trump — if his run is successful successful turning retired these lower-propensity voters, Trump's ballot margins would amended successful these states, flipping immoderate Mr. Biden carried 4 years ago.

How galore 2020 non-voters are expected to show up this year? Well, that besides depends connected nan state, but our estimates propose astir 1 successful 5 voters will not person voted successful nan erstwhile statesmanlike election. In 2020, this number looked higher than that successful Arizona and Nevada, and little successful Wisconsin, for example.

Let's ideate that nan Trump run boosts nan turnout complaint of this group successful each 7 battleground states. Specifically, successful this scenario, their stock of nan electorate grows by 5 points complete baseline estimates, e.g., from 20% to 25% successful Pennsylvania.

In this scenario, Trump would flip Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania — states he won successful 2016 but mislaid to Mr. Biden successful 2020 — and clasp North Carolina. He would suffer nan different battlegrounds to Harris but extremity up pinch much than nan 270 electoral votes required to triumph nan presidency. (Scroll to nan bottommost of this page to spot state-specific estimates nether different scenarios.)

Map of script 1: Shows 2020 non-voters and men giving Trump a boost

Scenario 2: Harris peels disconnected much Trump '20 voters, driven by GOP women

The 2024 title is marked by a sizable gender gap, pinch nan Harris run emphasizing reproductive rights and nan authorities of U.S. democracy. Related to this, nan Harris run has been deploying messengers for illustration erstwhile Wyoming GOP Rep. Liz Cheney to seduce mean Republicans to backmost Harris this year. That includes nan millions of GOP superior voters who formed votes for Nikki Haley, moreover aft Trump had clinched nan statement nomination. Most of these voters backed Trump successful nan 2020 wide election.

Persuading supporters of nan different statement to move to your broadside is simply a difficult task successful an era of calcified partisanship. How galore Trump 2020 voters mightiness nan Harris run realistically expect to flip?

A mates of suggestive information points:

• In our polling this year, astir 1 successful 10 Trump 2020 voters floor plan arsenic persuadable nationwide and successful battleground states. This intends they show america they aren't firmly committed to Trump. That's a reliable target for nan Harris campaign, because immoderate of these voters are leaning Trump's measurement and won't really alteration their mind, moreover if they opportunity they might.
• For context, our 2020 exit polls indicated that only 7% of erstwhile Trump voters flipped to Biden. That defection complaint ranged from 6-7% crossed 4 battlegrounds that Biden won that year. That's a much achievable target for nan campaign.

In this scenario, ideate that nan Harris run successfully flips 7% of Trump's 2020 voters successful nan battlegrounds. It's a departure from our baseline estimates, which propose some a little defection complaint and a astir adjacent number of Mr. Biden's 2020 voters flipping to Trump this year. It amounts to a favorable script for Harris, pinch Democrats netting votes from ballot switching successful captious states.

Under this group of assumptions, Harris would clasp each nan states Mr. Biden won 4 years ago, isolated from Arizona, and besides adhd North Carolina to her column. She would extremity up pinch much than 300 electoral votes, securing her spot successful history arsenic nan first female elected U.S. president.

Map of script 2: Shows Harris gaining pinch Republicans and women

In:
• Kamala Harris
• Donald Trump