How Putin views the choice between Harris and Trump, and what the election means for Russia

The mobility posed to Vladimir Putin successful September astir nan U.S. predetermination drew a wry grin and an arched eyebrow from nan Russian president.

Asked whether he preferred Donald Trump aliases Kamala Harris, Putin caught listeners up short pinch his teasing reply that besides included a gentle jab astatine President Joe Biden.

“Our ‘favorite,’ if you tin telephone it that, was nan existent president, Mr. Biden,” he told nan assemblage astatine an economical forum successful nan Far East larboard of Vladivostok.

FILE - From left: TV presenter for “Russia 24" Alexandra Suvorova, Malaysia’s Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and China’s Vice President Han Zheng be nan Eastern Economic Forum successful Vladivostok, Russia, connected Sept. 5, 2024. (Vyacheslav Prokofyev, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP, File)

“But he was removed from nan race, and he recommended each his supporters to support Ms. Harris. Well, we will do truthful — we will support her,” he said sardonically, citing her “expressive and infectious laugh” that shows “she’s doing well.”

The predetermination Tuesday carries important stakes for nan Kremlin, and contempt Putin’s noncommittal and somewhat teasing answer, it appeared to encapsulate Russia’s position arsenic a prime betwixt 2 unappealing possibilities.

FILE – Vice President Kamala Harris, nan Democratic statesmanlike nominee, speaks astatine nan 2024 Democratic National Convention, Aug. 22, 2024 successful Chicago. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya, File)

FILE – Former President Donald Trump, nan Republican statesmanlike nominee, speaks during a run rally astatine Greensboro Coliseum, connected Oct. 22, 2024, successful Greensboro, North Carolina. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson, File)

Analysts opportunity neither offers overmuch committedness of improving relations that person deed their lowest constituent since nan Cold War.

Harris, nan existent vice president, has taken a difficult statement against Russia, while Trump, nan erstwhile president, is known for his admiration of Putin. Still, astatine nan September gathering, Putin complained that erstwhile Trump was successful office, location were “so galore restrictions and sanctions against Russia for illustration nary different president has ever introduced earlier him.”

Timothy Colton of nan Harvard Academy for International and Area Studies said that nan Kremlin activity is “by and ample convinced thing bully is going to travel successful nan predetermination from Russia’s constituent of view.”

But he added that connected nan whole, Trump “is astir apt their preference; he’s much of a known quantity.”

Key issues for Russia arsenic nan U.S. predetermination looms:

What will hap to assistance for Ukraine?

Harris is seen arsenic apt to proceed nan Biden administration’s monolithic subject and economical support for Ukraine arsenic Russia’s invasion stretches toward a 3rd year.

Trump has bragged that his rapport pinch Putin and respect from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy are truthful beardown that he could discuss an extremity to nan warfare “in 24 hours.” He declines to item his strategy, but caller remarks criticizing sanctions successful wide propose he could assistance those against Russia arsenic an inducement to thief settee nan conflict.

During their debate, Trump twice refused to straight answer whether he wanted Ukraine to triumph nan war, while Harris praised Western support for Kyiv and urged it to continue.

FILE - Former President Donald Trump meets pinch Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy astatine Trump Tower, connected Sept. 27, 2024, successful New York. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson, File)

FILE - Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, left, and U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris airs for pictures astatine nan extremity of a news convention astatine nan Munich Security Conference successful Munich, Germany, connected Feb. 17, 2024. (Tobias Schwarz/Pool via AP, File)

“Otherwise, Putin would beryllium sitting successful Kyiv pinch his eyes connected nan remainder of Europe. Starting pinch Poland,” she said.

Trump’s running-mate Sen. JD Vance has mentioned proposals that could propose Trump’s thinking: having Ukraine demilitarize territory occupied by Russia and work together to imperishable neutrality. Those position would beryllium anathema to Kyiv, but Trump has shown small sympathy for Ukraine, saying Zelenskyy “should ne'er person fto that warfare start.”

Harris has not specified really her position would disagree from Biden’s. The U.S. has provided Ukraine much than $59.5 cardinal successful weapons and assistance since Russia invaded successful 2022. She has said antecedently it would beryllium foolish to consequence world alliances nan U.S. has established and decried Putin’s “brutality.”

A Harris triumph “likely promises continued U.S. support arsenic agelong astatine nan management tin support legislature backing,” nan International Crisis Group said successful a commentary, though it said she could activity an extremity to nan fighting much actively than Biden did. Growing legislature animosity to immense outlays of assistance for Ukraine could hobble aliases reshape her strategy.

How will nan U.S. attack Russia connected quality rights?

Harris has confronted Russia straight connected specified matters, peculiarly successful nan lawsuit of nan decease successful situation of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny. She was among nan first overseas leaders to remark connected his death, calling it “a further motion of Putin’s brutality.”

Trump put disconnected remark for days, past did not link Putin to nan matter. He likened Navalny’s reward to his ain fraud prosecution, calling his lawsuit “a shape of Navalny.”

Trump has called for a measure declaring location to beryllium only 2 genders and pledged to support transgender women retired of women’s sports — positions that parallel really Russia nether Putin has rolled backmost LGBTQ+ authorities and lauded “traditional values.”

His characterization of Democrats and his rivals arsenic “the force within” is small different successful tone than Russia’s accelerating suppression of opposition.

How will NATO beryllium affected?

Trump has wrestled pinch different members of the NATO alliance, demanding that they meet nan agreed spending levels for their militaries successful their nationalist budgets. He said that arsenic president, he warned leaders that he would not only garbage to take sides nations that don’t meet those targets, but that Russia could “do immoderate nan hellhole they want” to specified countries.

FILE - President Joe Biden, halfway left, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, halfway right, speak astatine an arena pinch NATO leaders connected nan sidelines of nan NATO Summit successful Washington connected July 11, 2024. (AP Photo/Susan Walsh, File)

Trump besides has questioned nan NATO charter’s mutual-defense clause, asking successful an question and reply why nan United States should beryllium obliged to take sides nan “very fierce people” of NATO personnel Montenegro.

Harris says nan United States’ committedness to NATO is “ironclad.” She has not weighed successful connected whether she supports Ukraine becoming an confederation member.

What astir arms power deals pinch Russia?

Putin has many times brandished nan atomic sword arsenic he seeks to deter nan West from supporting Ukraine.

The past remaining atomic arms power pact betwixt Moscow and Washington, New START, is to expire successful 2026. a twelvemonth aft nan caller management takes office, and its prospects are troubled.

Biden renewed nan pact quickly upon taking office, and Harris could beryllium expected to travel that support for nan pact that limits nan number of intercontinental atomic rocket launchers.

Russia suspended information successful 2023 — though it did not retreat — and nan U.S. retaliated pinch measures including halting nan sharing of accusation connected missiles’ location and status.

FILE - U.S. President Joe Biden, center, pinch Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, beforehand 2nd left, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, beforehand left, Britain’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer, beforehand 2nd right, Poland’s President Andrzej Duda, right, and different world leaders airs astatine nan motorboat of nan Joint Declaration of Support for Ukrainian Recovery and Reconstruction, connected Sept. 25, 2024, successful New York. (Leon Neal/Pool Photo via AP, File)

Trump, though he has warned of nan threat of “nuclear warming,” took steps while successful agency to dismantle nan arms power regime, including pulling retired of nan INF Treaty connected intermediate-range atomic weapons — which banned ground-based atomic and accepted missiles pinch a scope of 500-5,500 kilometers (310-3,410 miles),

While successful office, Trump called for a caller atomic pact that would see some Russia and China.

FILE - In this image provided by nan Office of nan Ukrainian Presidency, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, left, is watched by Rich Hansen, nan commander’s typical for nan Scranton Army Ammunition Plant, while signing subject ordnance successful Scranton, Pennsylvania connected Sept. 22, 2024. (Office of nan Ukrainian Presidency via AP, File)