How Nebraska’s 'blue dot' could prove pivotal in the Electoral College

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Amid an progressively tight predetermination betwixt Kamala Harris and Donald Trump successful respective cardinal plaything states, Nebraska, and much specifically, its 2nd Congressional District, has taken connected an outsize domiciled successful this year's statesmanlike election.

Because Nebraska presently awards 3 of its 5 Electoral College votes based connected nan results successful each of its 3 legislature districts, nan alleged "blue dot," arsenic nan 2nd territory has travel to beryllium known, could beryllium captious to either campaign's way to 270 electoral votes.

The territory is location to Omaha, Nebraska's largest city, and President Joe Biden became only nan 2nd Democratic statesmanlike campaigner successful authorities history to prime up nan district's sole elector successful 2020.

And while Biden won nan Electoral College handily past election, Democrats are bracing for a number of scenarios this twelvemonth that could spot a overmuch slimmer electoral separator for Harris -- turning Omaha and nan 2nd territory into a must-win.

A 'blue dot' successful a oversea of red

"I deliberation each of you cognize this, this point is going to beryllium close," Harris' moving mate Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz told a crowd of supporters successful Papillion, Nebraska -- a suburb of Omaha -- past week, predicting that nan alleged "blue wall" states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin would clasp for Harris.

"But you do nan mathematics -- Wisconsin, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, nan remainder of nan states: 269. One dot makes a difference," he said, referring to nan script successful which Harris wins nan bluish wall states but loses Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina. A triumph successful Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District, successful that case, would present her nan prized 270th electoral vote.

"Look, bluish dot, you're inspiring nan remainder of nan country," Walz said.

While Trump won nan territory by 2 points successful 2016, Biden subsequently hit Trump by much than six points successful 2020. Harris has, truthful far, seemed to support nan separator that Biden established, pinch nan latest New York Times/Siena College poll showing her up by 12 points successful nan district, while statewide, Trump has maintained a commanding lead.

Despite Harris' lead there, Trump's run has not neglected nan imaginable value of nan 2nd district's azygous electoral vote. Egged connected by nan erstwhile president and his allies, authorities Republicans attempted to push done an eleventh-hour rule that would person seen Nebraska wantonness nan divided ballot strategy that it has utilized since 1991.

While nan Republican-dominated authorities legislature grounded to get a filibuster-proof mostly supporting nan move to a winner-take-all strategy earlier adjourning for nan twelvemonth successful April, nationalist Republicans revamped nan effort successful September, lobbying Republican Gov. Jim Pillen to telephone lawmakers backmost for a typical legislative convention to make nan change.

That 2nd last-ditch effort saw South Carolina GOP Sen. Lindsey Graham descend connected nan state's superior to lobby Pillen and authorities legislators to make nan alteration while each 5 members of Nebraska's national delegation penned a missive backing nan move.

But authorities senators backing nan measure remained awkward of a filibuster-proof majority, incapable to person a mini group of Republican holdouts to subordinate their cause. Pillen, who initially publically pushed nan legislature to make nan alteration backmost successful April, yet refused to telephone a typical convention arsenic a result. The effort has since died down again.

"Under constricted circumstances, it could beryllium a very important vote," Trump conceded past week on Fox News radio.

"They had a small spot of a rogue legislator retired location [who] decided that he wanted to get a small free publicity, truthful he didn't get that done," he told big Brian Kilmeade, referring to nan botched effort to instal a winner-take-all system. "But that's okay … I would emotion to get that vote, and to nan group of Omaha, please beryllium bully to me."

An unexpectedly adjacent US Senate race

Nebraska besides boasts a amazingly competitory U.S. Senate title successful what should person been a comparatively safe incumbent re-election for Republican Sen. Deborah Fischer. There's nary Democrat successful nan race, technically, arsenic Fischer is fending disconnected a fierce challenge from independent Senate campaigner Dan Osborn, a national leader. But pinch nan power of nan U.S. Senate successful Washington successful nan balance, Democrats spot an opportunity to eat into Republican's way to nan majority.

That Senate title successful Nebraska is 1 of nan closest successful nan country, according to 538's polling average.

Over nan people of nan campaign, Osborn has stressed that he is simply a existent independent, maintaining he has nary plans to caucus pinch either statement contempt nan imaginable conflict that could person pinch committee assignments.

Though successful nan past fewer days of nan title messaging from extracurricular groups has shook up that perception. In a matter sent by Dunn's Democracy Defenders, a ace PAC founded by erstwhile U.S. Capitol Police serviceman Harry Dunn, nan PAC claimed "The Nebraska Senate title is now nan closest successful nan state … It's our champion prime up opportunity. Dan is an independent who will caucus pinch nan Democrats."

Screenshots circulating connected societal media person trim disconnected portion of nan matter that includes a nexus to a Dunn's Democracy Defenders webpage, according to Politico, and immoderate posts – including 1 from National Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee executive head Jason Thielman -- declare nan matter is simply a fundraising matter from Osborn.

ABC News has reviewed nan afloat screenshot showing nan matter is signed arsenic "DDD," which links nan connection to nan PAC, not Osborn's team.

Super PACs cannot legally coordinate pinch campaigns, and a campaign finance filing shows independent expenditures from nan PAC supporting Osborn done matter messages.

Osborn's opponent, Republican campaigner Deb Fischer, wrote connected X connected Wednesday, "For months, Dan Osborn denied that he was a Democrat successful disguise. But now nan truth is retired -- according to a fundraising connection past night, Dan Osborn WILL caucus pinch nan Democrats if he's elected to nan Senate. He's been lying to Nebraskans, galore of whom person already voted -- a awesome breach of nationalist trust."

But Osborn has dug heavy into his promise.

"Political group person been lying astir maine since time one, trying to usage maine to beforehand their ain agenda. They conscionable can't look to get their caput astir nan truth that I americium a lifelong Independent. I don't return orders from statement bosses, particularly Chuck Schumer. As I've said, I will not caucus pinch nan Democrats," Osborn said successful a connection to ABC Thursday, aft a Democratic ace PAC claimed he would subordinate their ranks successful Congress if he won.

ABC News' Oren Oppenheim contributed to this report.

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