How Donald Trump won the presidency

Former President Donald Trump is projected to beryllium nan adjacent president of nan United States, according to an ABC News projection issued astatine 5:31 a.m. Eastern connected Wednesday, Nov. 6. As of 6 a.m. Eastern, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin had been projected for Trump, and nan once-and-future president leads successful Arizona, Michigan and Nevada arsenic well. At this point, nan astir apt last result appears to beryllium a 312-226 Trump victory. Plus, while it will return immoderate clip to count each nan ballots, Trump looks apt to triumph nan nationalist celebrated ballot for president, too.

Over nan adjacent fewer months, we astatine 538 will do a batch of study to fig retired really precisely Trump won. He whitethorn be, aft all, only nan 2nd Republican statesmanlike campaigner since 1992 to triumph nan nationalist celebrated vote. That warrants not only introspection among Democrats, but a batch of value analysis, too. And Trump's expanse of nan plaything states — while not surprising — besides represents a caller high-water people for his electoral success.

For now, though, present are 3 speedy imaginable explanations for Trump's triumph tonight. These insights tie chiefly connected nan exit poll, which for various reasons is imperfect but for now remains nan champion root of disposable information connected why and really different types of group voted. (We reserve nan correct to revisit these conclusions erstwhile much information is available.)

Inflation

For each nan hubbub astir various issues, statements, rallies and rhetoric during this election, nan system is unsocial arsenic providing nan astir evident gravitational propulsion toward Trump. Voters rank nan costs of surviving successful America arsenic 1 of their apical concerns — and nary uncertainty it is 1 of nan astir pressing, salient and visible problems successful their lives. It is not a agelong of nan imagination to ideate they would punish nan incumbent statement for this sloppy of how unfavorably they viewed Trump; successful truth that is what voters person been doing each astir nan world complete nan past 3 years.

According to nan exit poll, 35 percent of voters nationally rated nan "state of democracy" arsenic nan astir important facet to their vote. Eighty-one percent of these group voted for Harris and conscionable 17 percent for Trump. But nan system was nan next-most-influential issue. Among these voters, Trump led 79 percent to 20 percent. In nan end, abortion did not complaint arsenic highly arsenic Democrats mightiness person hoped; only 14 percent rated it arsenic their biggest concern.

It's imaginable that ostentation contributed to nan increasing disagreement betwixt high-income voters and low-income voters. According to nan exit poll, Democrats accrued their ballot stock by 9 points among voters surviving successful households that make much than $100,000 dollars a year. Among households making less, which relationship for astir 60 percent of voters, Republicans gained 12 points connected margin.

Racial polarization

Initial exit canvass estimates besides propose Democratic support declined among non-white voters and roseate among achromatic voters (especially college-educated ones). The exit canvass indicates Trump won achromatic voters by 12 percent points, 55 percent to Harris's 43 percent. Compared to nan 2020 exit poll, that is simply a 5-point betterment for Democrats.

Democrats performed champion comparative to 2020 among achromatic college-educated voters. They moved 7 points to nan left, voting 54 percent to 44 percent for Harris. Non-white non-college-educated voters, meanwhile, moved 13 points toward Trump.

The Republican's gains pinch nonwhites was peculiarly acute among Hispanic and Latino voters. Democrats' ballot separator pinch nan group fell by 26 points, according to nan exit poll, to conscionable a 53-percent-to-45-percent margin. Trump's ballot stock pinch Latinos looks for illustration it could beryllium nan champion since George W. Bush's 44 percent successful 2004. Latino men moved 33 points toward Trump, 1 of his biggest swings.

Democratic turnout was poor

In summation to economical headwinds and deteriorating margins pinch their base, it looks for illustration Democrats besides simply had bad turnout. So far, astir 137 cardinal ballots person been counted for nan 2024 statesmanlike race. Predictions of final turnout are hovering location successful nan vicinity 152 cardinal votes. That would beryllium a alteration from nan 158 million who voted successful 2020 and would beryllium balanced to about 61 percent of eligible voters. That would beryllium a diminution from 66 percent successful 2020.

It is besides apt that nan driblet successful turnout disproportionately affected Democrats. While we can't beryllium judge until we tin reappraisal records of who really voted (states will merchandise those complete nan adjacent fewer months), nan drop-off successful turnout is presently greater successful nan astir Democratic counties crossed nan battleground states. That is thing that would uniquely wounded Harris; if you're a Democrat, past little turnout successful nan suburbs is bad, of course, but not truthful bad arsenic missing nan people successful Philadelphia aliases Milwaukee, wherever you're relying connected a batch of votes to transportation you to victory.

Over nan adjacent fewer months, we'll beryllium capable to pore complete moreover much information astir why Trump won (again). The basal mentation is that this was ever going to beryllium a difficult predetermination for Harris to win. She some grounded to seduce plaything voters and to get retired her guidelines wherever it mattered most. Democrats will person to do a batch of soul-searching to fig retired really to recover.