How AP VoteCast works, and how it’s different from an exit poll

WASHINGTON (AP) — When it comes to knowing elections, it’s not conscionable astir who won and lost. To explicate what really happened, it’s important to understand who voted and how, what they cared astir and really they felt astir important issues facing nan country.

At The Associated Press, AP VoteCast is simply a cardinal portion of answering those questions, explaining nan voting coalitions that elected nan president, wished legislature power and decided state-level ballot measures.

Launched successful 2018, AP VoteCast is an extensive study of some voters and nonvoters that intends to show nan communicative down predetermination results. Conducted for nan AP and Fox News by nan AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, it’s a elaborate snapshot of nan American electorate that helps explicate who voted, who didn’t vote, what issues they attraction about, really they consciousness astir nan candidates and why they voted nan measurement they did — aliases didn’t ballot astatine all.

What is an exit canvass and really does it disagree from AP VoteCast?

Although it serves a akin purpose, AP VoteCast is not an exit poll.

Traditional exit polls, including nan 1 conducted by a consortium of news networks successful nan United States, trust mostly connected in-person interviews pinch voters conducted extracurricular of prime polling places aft they’ve voted, supplemented pinch a telephone survey to scope mail-in voters. Before AP VoteCast nan AP worked pinch different awesome news organizations to behaviour Election Day exit polls.

AP VoteCast was created successful portion to reflect important changes complete nan years successful really group vote, from a world wherever astir group ballot by showing up astatine nan polls connected Election Day to 1 wherever a increasing number ballot earlier Election Day.

In 1972, for example, astir 95% of voters nationwide formed a ballot in-person connected nan time of nan election. Since then, nan number of those voting earlier Election Day has grown steadily, particularly successful nan past fewer elections. In 2018, roughly 4 successful 10 voters formed their ballots earlier nan November wide election. In 2020, during nan coronavirus pandemic, nan number changeable up to astir 7 successful 10. In nan 2022 midterms, astir half of voters formed pre-Election Day ballots.

AP VoteCast captures nan views of voters — whether they ballot successful personification connected Election Day aliases weeks up of clip — by opening to question and reply registered voters respective days earlier Election Day. Those interviews reason arsenic polls adjacent successful each state. Interviews are offered successful English and Spanish, arsenic needed.

This attack allowed AP VoteCast to reliably study much than 130,000 registered voters successful each 50 states during nan 2020 statesmanlike election, and comprehensively explicate how Democrat Joe Biden won nan statesmanlike election.

How does AP VoteCast scope voters?

AP VoteCast uses a combination of methods — mail, telephone and online interviews — to scope registered voters and seizure their opinions astir nan candidates and nan election, sloppy of whether they ballot in-person connected aliases earlier Election Day aliases by mail-in ballot.

The first measurement successful nan process is to find group to participate successful nan survey. A random sample of registered voters drawn from authorities elector files is contacted done nan message and invited to return nan study online aliases by phone. Some voters are besides contacted by telephone if they do not respond to nan first invitation to return portion successful nan survey.

Besides nan randomly selected group of eligible registered voters, AP VoteCast collects information by conducting interviews pinch further voters recruited done “opt-in” online panels wherever nan participants are not selected randomly but alternatively recruited done net advertising. This helps springiness AP VoteCast a broader scope and further depth.

To make judge these further interviews don’t overrepresent aliases underrepresent important demographic and ideological groups, nan panel’s creation is cautiously calibrated to lucifer nan random sample study connected cardinal attitudes, on pinch matching nan demographic characteristics of each registered voters.

What does AP VoteCast inquire voters?

Voters are asked a modular group of demographic questions, specified arsenic their age, sex, title and ethnicity, acquisition level and nan type of vicinity they unrecorded in. They’re asked to stock their views connected what they look for successful a candidate, what they deliberation astir nan candidates connected nan ballot and what they judge are nan cardinal issues facing nan country, specified arsenic abortion, crime, nan economy, wellness attraction and immigration.

While voters are asked for whom they’re voting, nan AP doesn’t usage this accusation to study an wide equine title consequence aliases to switch ballot totals. But nan study results do supply valuable penetration into really circumstantial groups voted. For example, successful nan 2020 statesmanlike election, AP VoteCast results showed that white men favored Republican Donald Trump, while women pinch assemblage degrees favored Biden. That year, voters who thought nan system was nan apical rumor preferred Trump, while those who thought wellness attraction was nan apical rumor supported Biden.

In nan 2024 Republican primary, AP VoteCast surveys successful Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina showed that while Trump won commanding victories successful nan early states, he struggled to broaden his support beyond those groups that person mostly supported him successful nan past. Harris didn’t go nan Democratic nominee done nan superior process, truthful her support among nan party’s superior voters wasn’t captured successful AP VoteCast surveys.

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Read much astir really U.S. elections activity astatine Explaining Election Day, a bid from The Associated Press aimed astatine helping make consciousness of nan American democracy. The AP receives support from respective backstage foundations to heighten its explanatory sum of elections and democracy. See much astir AP’s populist inaugural here. The AP is solely responsible for each content.