Here’s what to watch as Election Day approaches in the U.S.

WASHINGTON (AP) — Election Day is astir upon us. In a matter of hours, nan last votes successful nan 2024 statesmanlike predetermination will beryllium cast.

In a profoundly divided nation, nan predetermination is simply a existent toss-up betwixt Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump.

We cognize location are seven battleground states that will determine nan outcome, barring a awesome surprise. But awesome questions persist astir nan timing of nan results, nan constitution of nan electorate, nan influx of misinformation — moreover nan anticipation of governmental violence. At nan aforesaid time, some sides are prepared for a prolonged ineligible conflict that could complicate things further.

Here’s what to watch connected nan eve of Election Day 2024:

History will beryllium made either way

Given each nan twists and turns successful caller months, it’s easy to place nan humanities value of this election.

Harris would go nan first female president successful nan United States’ 248-year history. She would besides beryllium nan first Black female and personification of South Asian descent to clasp nan office. Harris and her run person mostly played down gender and title fearing that they mightiness alienate immoderate supporters. But nan value of a Harris triumph would not beryllium mislaid connected historians.

A Trump triumph would correspond a different benignant of humanities accomplishment. He would go nan first personification convicted of a felony elected to nan U.S. presidency, having been convicted of 34 felony counts successful a New York hush-money lawsuit small much than 5 months ago.

Trump, who is still facing felony charges successful astatine slightest 2 abstracted criminal cases, based on that he is nan unfortunate of a politicized justness system. And tens of millions of voters apparently judge him — aliases they’re consenting to place his bonzer ineligible baggage.

How agelong will it return to cognize nan winner?

Election Day successful nan United States is now often considered predetermination week arsenic each authorities follows its ain rules and practices for counting ballots — not to mention nan ineligible challenges — that tin hold nan results. But nan truth is, cipher knows really agelong it will return for nan victor to beryllium announced this time.

In 2020, The Associated Press declared President Joe Biden nan victor connected Saturday day — 4 days aft polls closed. But moreover then, The AP called North Carolina for Trump 10 days aft Election Day and Georgia for Biden 16 days later aft manus recounts.

Four years earlier, nan 2016 predetermination was decided conscionable hours aft astir polls closed. The AP declared Trump nan victor connected predetermination nighttime astatine 2:29 a.m. (it was technically Wednesday greeting connected nan East Coast).

This time, some campaigns judge nan title is highly adjacent crossed nan 7 plaything states that are expected to determine nan election, barring a awesome surprise: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

The size of nan representation and nan tightness of nan title make it difficult to foretell erstwhile a victor could beryllium declared.

Where tin I find early clues astir really nan title mightiness unfold?

Look to 2 East Coast battleground states, North Carolina and Georgia, wherever nan results could travel successful comparatively quickly. That doesn’t mean we’ll get nan last results successful those states quickly if nan returns are close, but they are nan first plaything states that mightiness connection a consciousness of what benignant of nighttime we’re successful for.

To spell deeper, look to municipality and suburban areas successful nan business North and Southeast, wherever Democrats person made gains since 2020.

In North Carolina, Harris’ margins successful Wake and Mecklenburg Counties, location to nan authorities superior of Raleigh and nan state’s largest city, Charlotte, respectively, will uncover really overmuch Trump will request to compression retired of nan less-populated agrarian areas he has dominated.

In Pennsylvania, Harris needs dense turnout successful heavy bluish Philadelphia, but she’s besides looking to boost nan Democrats’ advantage successful nan arc of suburban counties to nan northbound and westbound of nan city. She has campaigned aggressively successful Bucks, Chester, Delaware and Montgomery counties, wherever Biden improved connected Clinton’s 2016 winning margins. The Philadelphia metro area, including nan 4 collar counties, accounts for 43 percent of Pennsylvania’s vote.

Elsewhere successful nan Blue Wall, Trump needs to blunt Democratic maturation successful Michigan’s cardinal suburban counties extracurricular of Detroit, particularly Oakland County. He faces nan aforesaid situation successful Wisconsin’s Waukesha County extracurricular of Milwaukee.

Where are nan candidates?

Trump will apt walk nan very early hours of Election Day successful Michigan, wherever he is scheduled to clasp a last late-night rally successful Grand Rapids arsenic has go his tradition.

The Republican campaigner plans to walk nan remainder of nan time successful Florida, wherever he is expected to ballot successful personification -- contempt antecedently saying he would ballot early. He’s scheduled to clasp a run watch statement successful Palm Beach Tuesday night.

Harris plans to be an Election Night statement astatine Howard University successful Washington, a historically Black assemblage wherever she graduated pinch a grade successful economics and governmental subject successful 1986 and was an progressive personnel of Alpha Kappa Alpha sorority.

Aside from Howard, she has nary nationalist schedule announced for Election Day.

Harris said Sunday that she had “just filled out” her mail-in ballot and it was “on its measurement to California.”

Who’s near to show up connected Election Day?

On nan eve of Election Day, it’s unclear which voters will show up to formed ballots connected Tuesday.

More than 77 cardinal people participated successful early voting — either successful personification aliases done nan mail. So galore group already formed ballots that immoderate officials opportunity nan polls successful states for illustration Georgia mightiness beryllium a “ghost town” connected Election Day.

One awesome logic for nan surge is that that Trump has mostly encouraged his supporters to ballot early this time, a reversal from 2020 erstwhile he called connected Republicans to ballot only in-person connected Election Day. The early ballot numbers corroborate that millions of Republicans person heeded Trump’s telephone successful caller weeks.

The cardinal question, however, is whether nan surge of Republicans who voted early this clip will yet cannibalize nan number of Republicans who show up connected Tuesday.

There are besides shifts connected nan Democratic side. Four years ago, arsenic nan pandemic lingered, Democrats overwhelmingly formed their ballots early. But this clip around, without nan nationalist wellness risk, it’s apt that much Democrats will show up successful personification connected Election Day.

That equilibrium connected some sides is captious arsenic we effort to understand nan early returns. And it’s connected nan campaigns to cognize which voters they still request to move retired connected Tuesday. On that front, Democrats whitethorn person an advantage.

Trump’s run and nan Republican National Committee person outsourced overmuch of their get-out-the-vote cognition operation to extracurricular groups, including 1 funded mostly by billionaire Trump state Elon Musk that’s facing caller questions astir its practices. Harris’ campaign, by contrast, is moving a much accepted cognition that features much than 2,500 paid staffers and 357 offices successful battleground states alone.

Could location beryllium unrest?

Trump has been aggressively promoting baseless claims successful caller days questioning nan integrity of nan election. He falsely insists that he tin suffer only if Democrats cheat, moreover arsenic polls show that show nan title is simply a existent toss-up.

Trump could again declare triumph connected predetermination nighttime sloppy of nan results, conscionable arsenic he did successful 2020.

Such rhetoric tin person superior consequences arsenic nan federation saw erstwhile Trump loyalists stormed nan Capitol connected Jan. 6, 2021 successful 1 of nan darkest days successful modern American history. And unfortunately, location is still a imaginable of further unit this predetermination season.

The Republican National Committee will person thousands of “election integrity” canvass monitors successful spot connected Tuesday searching for immoderate signs of fraud, which critics fearfulness could lead to harassment of voters aliases predetermination workers. In immoderate cardinal voting places, officials person requested nan beingness of sheriff deputies successful summation to bulletproof solid and panic buttons that link canvass managers to a section 911 dispatcher.

At nan aforesaid time, Trump friends statement that he has faced 2 assassination attempts successful caller months that raise nan anticipation of further threats against him. And constabulary successful Washington and different cities are preparing for nan anticipation of superior Election Day unrest.

As always, it’s worthy noting that a wide conjugation of apical authorities and manufacture officials, galore of them Republicans, recovered that nan 2020 predetermination was nan “most secure” successful American history.”

___ AP writers Tom Beaumont and Will Weissert successful Washington and Jill Colvin successful Grand Rapids, Michigan contributed.