Harris regains slight lead nationally yet Electoral College holds the cards: POLL

Vice President Kamala Harris has regained a flimsy lead among apt voters nationally successful nan latest ABC News/Ipsos poll, albeit pinch nan title adjacent capable to time off nan result of nan 2024 statesmanlike predetermination to nan uncertainties of nan Electoral College.

Democratic statesmanlike nominee Vice President Kamala Harris speaks astatine a run rally astatine James R. Hallford Stadium, Oct. 24, 2024, successful Clarkston, Ga.

Julia Demaree Nikhinson/AP

Turnout is key. Just 2 percent points disagreement Harris and Donald Trump among each registered voters, 49-47%. This goes to a flimsy Harris advantage among apt voters, 51-47%, pinch immoderate pro-Harris groups showing a spot much propensity to vote.

Vote Preferences. Among apt voters

ABC News/Ipsos and ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos polls

Compared pinch earlier this month, Harris has regained a much customary Democratic advantage among Hispanic group and widened her advantage among suburban women, while remaining beardown successful halfway groups including Black people. Trump pushes backmost successful agrarian areas and among non-college achromatic men, and runs competitively among younger men.

See PDF for afloat results.

Issues

The candidates disagreement nan pastry successful spot to grip apical issues. Trump's champion see immigration, pinch a 12-point advantage complete Harris among registered voters; nan system overall, +8 points; inflation, +7; and nan conflict successful nan Middle East, besides +7. Harris responds pinch double-digit leads successful spot to grip abortion (+15) and wellness attraction (+10); she's besides 8 points up successful spot to grip "protecting American democracy" and +6 connected helping nan mediate class.

The system and ostentation proceed arsenic salient concerns, pinch 90% and 85% of registered voters, respectively, calling these highly important successful their vote. But this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates, pinch fieldwork by Ipsos, finds a displacement successful intensity: The shares assigning topmost value to nan system aliases inflation, calling them "one of nan azygous astir important issues" successful their vote, person declined by 7 points apiece since September.

Issue Importance and Trust. Among registered voters

ABC NEWS/IPSOS POLL

Any displacement from economical concerns apt would assistance Harris, fixed her shortfall successful spot to grip nan rumor and dissatisfaction pinch nan Biden administration's economical performance. President Joe Biden labors pinch conscionable a 36% occupation support rating; differentiating herself from him has been a situation for Harris. She has 95% support among registered voters who o.k. of Biden's occupation performance, compared pinch 16% among nan mostly who disapprove.

Notably, arsenic well, protecting populist ranks astir arsenic precocious arsenic ostentation successful importance, cited by 81%. That's good supra nan value of immigration, which Trump has been hitting hard, and abortion, a cardinal attraction for Harris. But these bespeak partisan realities: Democrats are acold much apt than others to prime abortion arsenic a apical issue; Republicans, to prime immigration.

Issue Importance by Partisanship. Among registered voters

ABC NEWS/IPSOS POLL

Attributes

While they conflict connected issues, Harris continues to lead Trump connected astir individual attributes. Assessed head-to-head, Harris leads Trump by 11 points, 49-38%, successful being seen arsenic having nan intelligence sharpness it takes to service efficaciously arsenic president -- a measurement connected which Trump had led Biden by 31 points.

Harris' advantage widens to 29 points connected having nan beingness wellness to service effectively; she's besides much apt than Trump to beryllium seen arsenic honorable and trustworthy, by 15 points; to understand nan problems of group for illustration you, by 10 points; and to stock your individual values, by 8 points.

That said, location is simply a remaining individual property connected which Trump runs fundamentally evenly pinch Harris, 1 that whitethorn matter successful an unstable world: being trusted successful a crisis. Forty-three percent prime Harris connected this, 41%, Trump.

Preference connected Personal Attributes. Among registered voters

ABC NEWS/IPSOS POLL

These aren't nan only differences successful views of nan candidates' attributes. As reported Friday, registered voters are doubly arsenic apt to telephone Trump a fascist arsenic to opportunity this astir Harris, and 16 points much apt to deliberation he often says things that are not true. But they're besides 5 points much apt to deliberation Harris alternatively than Trump makes proposals conscionable to triumph votes, not that she intends to transportation out.

Voter groups

Eight percent of adults (and 10% of registered voters) opportunity they've already voted (as of early past week); a disproportionately Democratic group, they went 62-33% for Harris.

This canvass finds a notable displacement successful ballot preferences among Hispanic people, 12% of apt voters and a perchance important group fixed nan adjacent contest, particularly successful nan battleground states of Arizona and Nevada. Biden won Hispanic group by 33 points successful 2020, per nan ABC News exit poll, and Harris leads successful this group by a akin 30 points now, 64-34% -- compared pinch 55-43% successful early October.

Vote by Group

ABC News/Ipsos and 2020 ABC News exit polls

Trump has immoderate offsets to Harris' summation among Hispanic people. He now is +41 points among achromatic men without assemblage degrees, fundamentally matching his showing successful this group successful nan 2020 ABC News exit poll, and besides +41 points among agrarian voters.

Additionally, men younger than 40 were +6 points for Harris early this month; now they're +5 for Trump. This alteration is not statistically significant, nor is nan quality betwixt nan candidates, fixed sample sizes. Nonetheless, nan consequence stands successful striking opposition to preferences among women younger than 40, who favour Harris by a 34-point margin.

Trump is simply a flimsy +6 among men overall, Harris +14 among women – almost precisely nan mean gender spread successful statesmanlike elections since 1996. This includes a 19-point lead for Harris among suburban women, vs. a flimsy 10-point separator for her successful this group earlier successful October.

Republican statesmanlike nominee, erstwhile U.S. President Donald Trump speaks astatine a Turning Point Action run rally, Oct. 24, 2024, successful Las Vegas.

Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

The longstanding gender spread successful statesmanlike penchant reflects nan truth that women are much apt than men to beryllium Democrats -- by 13 points among apt voters successful this poll. This besides appears successful rumor importance, pinch women much apt than men, by double digits, to prime some abortion and wellness attraction arsenic apical issues successful their ballot choice.

Many of these results among groups are akin to those successful nan 2020 exit poll. In 1 difference, Harris outperforms Biden 4 years agone among college-educated achromatic women. She's besides beardown among assemblage graduates overall.

Another difference, though, is an important 1 for Trump: He's fundamentally moreover pinch Harris among independents, a group Biden won by 13 points successful 2020, vs. a scant Harris +1 now. The campaigner who's won independents has won 9 of nan past 12 statesmanlike elections.

Turnout

Overall ballot preferences are fundamentally moreover among nan wide organization (Harris +1) and registered voters (Harris +2) alike. As noted, this inches to a flimsy Harris +4 among apt voters.

The displacement toward Harris among apt voters relies successful portion connected consolidated support among Democratic guidelines groups, notably Black group and liberals. While Harris has a 70-point advantage among each Black people, that widens to 83 points among Black apt voters, 90-7%. Ninety-six percent of wide apt voters support Harris, vs. 91% of liberals overall. Additionally, she goes from 53% support among each suburban women to 59% among those apt to vote. Trump, by contrast, doesn't spot important bumps successful support among apt voters.

Supporters clasp up signs arsenic Democratic statesmanlike nominee U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during her run rally on pinch erstwhile U.S. President Barack Obama successful Atlanta, Oct. 24, 2024.

Megan Varner/Reuters

Identifying apt voters entails estimation, and it tin beryllium a moving target arsenic nan campaigns activity overtime to motivate turnout for their campaigner and demotivate it for their opponent.

In 1 imaginable parameter of turnout, nan candidates are adjacent successful elector enthusiasm -- 88% of Harris supporters are enthusiastic astir her, arsenic are 85% of Trump's astir him. In another, Harris maintains a flimsy separator successful elector contact, pinch Americans wide 5 points much apt to person been contacted by her run than by Trump's. In nan 7 battleground states, though, it's a non-significant 4 points -- and nan 50-47% title location remains nan balanced of a dormant heat.

Methodology

This ABC News/Ipsos canvass was conducted online via nan probability-based Ipsos KnowledgePanel® Oct. 18-22, 2024, successful English and Spanish, among a random nationalist sample of 2,808 adults, including 2,392 registered voters and 1,913 apt voters. Partisan divisions among each adults are 29-29-30%, Democrats-Republicans-independents; 32-32-29% among registered voters; and 35-35-27% among apt voters.

Results person a separator of sampling error of 2 percent points, including nan creation effect, for nan afloat sample and for registered voters, 2.5 points for apt voters and 5.5 points for apt voters successful nan battleground states, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Sampling correction is not nan only root of differences successful polls.

The study was produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates, pinch sampling and information postulation by Ipsos. See specifications connected ABC News study methodology here.