Expert previews potential Election Day 'mirages' we might see as votes are counted

Election Day is approaching, and galore group successful nan U.S. mightiness person questions astir really votes will beryllium counted aft nan polls close. Depending connected your location, you whitethorn formed your ballot for various positions, including schoolhouse boards, metropolis councils and mayors.

This year, much states will apt beryllium decided by very constrictive margins. This could lead campaigns, aliases moreover overseas actors, to effort to create much distrust among voters during nan ballot-counting process. However, if you cognize what to look for, this business will look overmuch little chaotic.

The chaos of nan 2020 predetermination tin beryllium attributed, successful part, to important shifts successful ballot counting. Initially, results from traditionally Republican districts showed Donald Trump successful nan lead. However, arsenic nan counting continued, ballots from bluish counties began to travel in, allowing Joe Biden to surge ahead.

When early voting starts successful nan U.S.

ABC News, State predetermination offices

This is why you mightiness retrieve Trump saying, "Stop nan count." It became clear that Biden had won respective adjacent states arsenic each nan votes were counted.

On Wednesday, ABC News' "Start Here" podcast big Brad Mielke said pinch Michael McDonald, a professor of Political Science astatine nan University of Florida, who has been studying really votes are counted for years.

START HERE: Professor McDonald, let’s presume everyone’s voted connected predetermination night, polls are closed. We often spot nan point wherever it's for illustration "2% of precincts in, we are not projecting thing yet." What benignant of complicating factors would make those early numbers not suggestive of nan fuller results? Like what benignant of twists and turns are you expecting?

MCDONALD: Yes, truthful we thin to spot smaller localities beryllium capable to count their ballots and study them faster. And past larger localities thin to return a small much clip because they person much ballots to process. And truthful we get this discrepancy where, because Republicans thin to unrecorded successful much agrarian areas that are smaller, those ballots whitethorn beryllium counted first aliases reported first. But, and past nan municipality areas whitethorn count their ballots aliases study their ballots later. So there's thing nefarious going on. It's conscionable nan timing of nan the workload that predetermination officials person that leads to nan timing of erstwhile nan ballots are going to beryllium reported.

START HERE: OK, this is what I wanted to inquire you about. I’ve heard phrases for illustration “red mirage,” a “blue shift.” That’s what you’re describing here, right? When it takes a while to count mail-in ballots, it looks for illustration 1 statement is way, measurement ahead.

MCDONALD: Yeah, it really depends connected nan state. So immoderate states we person this lead time. Florida, for example, wherever I live, does person lead time, wherever predetermination officials are already doing each nan mentation they request truthful that they tin beryllium retired of nan gross very fast. And because we thin to suspect, though this predetermination could beryllium a small different, we fishy that those early voters are going to beryllium much Democratic leaning.

We could person a bluish mirage and past a reddish mirage, but past a bluish mirage again, because predetermination officials are counting nan ballots that came backmost connected Election Day. And, and those could beryllium Democratic leaning aliases they whitethorn not be. This election, location are immoderate trends and dynamics that are different than nan past. So nan past is not needfully a bully guideline arsenic to what whitethorn hap pinch mirages this clip around.

START HERE: Yeah, show america astir that pinch nan early voting especially, because 4 years agone location was this immense disparity by party, right? Democrats were each astir early voting. They were each astir voting by mail. Republicans were mostly told by nan president astatine nan clip "Vote connected Election Day," and they did. Is that going to clasp existent this year?

In this Oct. 20, 2020 record photo, residents driblet mail-in ballots successful an charismatic ballot container extracurricular of nan Tippecanoe branch room connected successful Milwaukee.

Scott Olson/Getty Images, FILE

MCDONALD: Well, we tin already spot that it's not true. And Donald Trump has fixed nan greenish ray to his supporters to ballot in-person early. And we tin surely spot Republicans showing up successful ample numbers to ballot in-person early compared to immoderate past predetermination that we've seen pinch nan in-person early vote. Before 2020, we would person said, yeah, that in-person early vote, that's erstwhile each nan Democrats vote. And it's really nan message ballots wherever Democrats vote.

But nan pandemic flipped that around. And truthful now Democrats are nan ones who are overmuch much apt to ballot by mail. Of course, Trump continues to telephone message ballots fraudulent. And truthful his supporters perceive that. And they're little apt to usage message balloting successful places wherever there's an action to do so. So we're mounting speech these all-mail ballots states. So we expect erstwhile we get to Election Day, these trends will mostly hold.

START HERE: But successful your mind, then, I mean, what is nan probability successful your mind that we person an reply connected predetermination night? And what what would propulsion that off?

MCDONALD: Well, I mean, it's difficult to opportunity because we still person immoderate much days of early voting to get through. I do expect immoderate of nan patterns that we've been seeing up to this constituent to displacement some. And I would conscionable opportunity beryllium tight. I mean, we won't really know, astatine slightest successful position of nan distribution of Democrats and Republicans who person voted early, until really this weekend. So I would conscionable beryllium cautious answering that question.

But let's put done immoderate scenarios where, for example, if we're looking astatine ballots having to beryllium counted, still message ballots successful places for illustration Milwaukee aliases Philadelphia, we could beryllium waiting a small spot heavy into nan evening erstwhile we're talking astir hundreds of thousands of pieces of paper, envelopes that person to beryllium opened and separated and recognition checked over. So it conscionable takes longer successful those large cities.

START HERE: It sounds for illustration possibly not moreover for illustration hours like, could that beryllium days successful immoderate areas?

MCDONALD: It has happened earlier that we've seen days. Arizona was a very bully illustration of this successful 2020, erstwhile Republicans who had message ballots, but they were told "You amended ballot connected Election Day." They held their message ballots and dropped them disconnected astatine nan polling locations successful Arizona, arsenic is allowed nether Arizona law. So Maricopa County, which is wherever Phoenix is located, was having to count ballots. And we knew that these were Republicans. They weren't Democrats.

And truthful actually, if anything, we were looking astatine a bluish mirage successful Arizona wherever Biden had a lead and Trump supporters were extracurricular nan normal center, nan counting installation successful Maricopa County, and they were chanting "Stop nan count." Biden was really leading. So past they had to alteration their chant to "Stop nan steal," they figured it retired aft a day. Trump lawyers were connected nan inside. They were watching nan count taking spot and they needed those votes. So they were watching very cautiously to make judge that they each would beryllium counted correctly.

START HERE: All right. Strap in. Michael McDonald from nan University of Florida. We'll cheque successful pinch you aft predetermination nighttime aliases predetermination week aliases nevertheless agelong this ends up taking. Really admit your insight.

MCDONALD: You're welcome.