Even before taking office, Trump puts Mexico on spot — stop the caravans now

Even earlier nan U.S. polls opened Tuesday, a vanguard of immigrants at slightest 5,000 strong set retired connected a agelong march from heavy confederate Mexico to nan U.S. confederate border.

The purpose: to trial whether caller Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum will usage nan subject to extremity them now that nan American predetermination is over.

No little astatine liking successful this caller northward moving caravan situation is whether hundreds of thousands much pooled up behind them successful confederate Mexico — with thousands much a time crossing into Mexico from Guatemala — will observe an unimpeded transition for this vanguard and travel it successful a monolithic quality swell that would presumably past until Donald Trump is sworn successful January 20.

But Trump isn’t waiting. Just a time earlier nan caravans launched and he won his election, Trump threatened massive, debilitating tariffs connected Mexican exports if its Sheinbaum lets caravans make it to nan separator earlier he gets into office.

“I’m going to pass [Mexico’s president] connected time 1 aliases sooner that if they don’t extremity this onslaught of criminals and narcotics coming into our country, I’m going to instantly enforce a 25% tariff connected everything they nonstop into nan United States of America,” Trump declared astatine his Raleigh, N.C. rally connected Monday.

“If that doesn’t work,” he added. “I’ll make it 50, and if that doesn’t work, I’ll make it 75. Then I’ll make it 100.”

Recent history shows that this informing changeable that Trump fired complete nan statesmanlike palace has very existent imaginable to impede immoderate huffy last wide dash connected nan confederate separator during nan coming modulation play — and overmuch more.

Recall that past December, President Joe Biden struck a backroom deal with Mexico City to alleviate nan governmental spectacle of a severely congested confederate separator for nan coming 2024 governmental run season. For 10 months straight, nan woody has had 32,500 Mexican troops and moreover much federales round up tens of thousands of intending border-crossers from nan country’s northbound and vessel them by unit to a militarized blockade of its confederate provinces.

The operation, known successful nan Mexican media arsenic “Operation Carousel,” worked wonders, cutting successful half world grounds forbidden separator crossings past autumn wrong its first period unsocial and much each period since.

But nary 1 really knows what would go of Operation Carousel erstwhile nan American predetermination was complete pinch Mexico emotion its responsibility to nan Biden-Harris run now met.

Not slightest nan thousands of trapped immigrants eager to get successful earlier Trump takes office. They’ve been listening pinch increasing panic to his run talk astir closing nan separator down instantly while Mexico was trapping them down location and, almost certainly, his very first promissory words of Wednesday morning’s triumph speech, “We’re going to hole nan border.”

Trump’s tariff threat is not an idle one. Mexico’s system utterly depends connected its U.S. exports now. In 2023 and 2024, Mexico overtook China arsenic nan U.S.’s largest trading partner pinch exports from Mexico reaching their highest successful nan history of some countries to nearly $379 cardinal successful 2024, expanding different 6.5% successful nan past quarter. Revenue from Mexican exports to nan U.S. totaled a record $593 billion last year.

That won’t beryllium mislaid connected Sheinbaum, a wide progressive who has agelong favored passing nan wide migration basking murphy connected to nan United States.

As a protégé of erstwhile President Andres Manuel Lopez-Obrador (AMLO), Sheinbaum would astir decidedly callback that her aged leader suffered Trump’s first tariff-threat rodeo backmost successful 2019.

That was erstwhile Trump, facing a little but aggravated surge of family units astatine nan confederate border,  threatened progressive waste and acquisition tariffs on Mexican exports that would scope 28% if AMLO did not deploy subject to unopen down his ain confederate separator pinch Guatemala and hem successful immigrants down 50 militarized roadblocks starring retired of nan confederate provinces for illustration Chiapas State.

AMLO did arsenic he was told to debar economical ruination for his country.

Once Biden entered agency successful 2021, he swept Trump’s tariff threat instrumentality from nan array and, politely asking AMLO to support nan cognition going, switched to carrots — meaning cash.

The historical wide migration of millions that followed — and has now swept Trump into agency again.

Will Sheinbaum heed Trump’s tariff threat? She’s being cagey truthful far, saying only that Trump’s predetermination was “no origin for concern.”

“We are a free, independent, sovereign state and location will beryllium bully relations pinch nan United States. I americium convinced of this,” she said astatine a news conference.

The adjacent fewer months will beryllium if that’s true.

Todd Bensman, a elder nationalist information chap astatine nan Center for Immigration Studies, is nan writer of “Overrun: How Joe Biden Unleashed nan Greatest Border Crisis successful U.S. History.”