Election stays close in final weekend with a dispirited electorate: Poll

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A dispirited electorate marks nan extremity of nan 2024 statesmanlike campaign, pinch three-quarters of apt voters saying nan state is earnestly disconnected connected nan incorrect track, six successful 10 dissatisfied pinch their prime of candidates – and a tight title betwixt Vice President Kamala Harris and erstwhile President Donald Trump.

Harris has 49% support among apt voters successful this final-weekend ABC News/Ipsos poll, Trump 46%. Reflecting nan country's locked-in polarization, support for these candidates hasn't changed importantly since Harris stepped successful to switch Joe Biden past summer.

Former President and Republican statesmanlike campaigner Donald Trump dances successful La Crosse, Wisconsin, Aug. 29, 2024. | Vice President and Democratic statesmanlike campaigner Kamala Harris speaks astatine nan DNC successful Chicago, Aug. 22, 2024.

Harris was +2 successful early October, +4 (a flimsy edge) past week and is +3 successful this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates pinch fieldwork by Ipsos. That scant 3-point quality pinch Trump matches nan mean Democratic-Republican spread successful nan past 8 statesmanlike elections, of which Democrats won nan celebrated ballot successful seven. Regardless, nan consequence leaves a wide-open section for nan vagaries of nan Electoral College.

One move down these results is early voting. In information arsenic of Friday morning, 38% said they'd already voted, and they went for Harris by 56-38%. That compares pinch 62-33% among early voters past week, and it's person successful this group than nan Democrats want.

See PDF for afloat results.

Not happy

Satisfaction pinch nan contest, nan system and nan country's guidance wide are successful short supply. Seventy-four percent of apt voters opportunity nan state is headed earnestly disconnected connected nan incorrect way – nan astir conscionable earlier a statesmanlike predetermination since 2008. Half of Harris supporters opportunity so, rising to astir all, 98%, of Trump's.

Dissatisfaction partially reflects economical attitudes. Forty-two percent of apt voters opportunity they're little good disconnected financially than erstwhile Biden took office, vs. conscionable 19% amended off. The worse-off number has been astatine aliases adjacent its highest successful information since 1986 each year, reflecting nan 40-year precocious successful ostentation knowledgeable connected Biden's watch.

Here governmental divisions are particularly profound, marking nan relationship betwixt governmental views and economical ones. Seventy-eight percent of Trump supporters opportunity they've go little good disconnected nether Biden. Among Harris supporters, conscionable 8% spell there.

On nan different hand, successful different measurement – restitution pinch nan prime of major-party candidates – partisans find a spot to agree. Sixty percent are dissatisfied pinch nan prime of Harris aliases Trump, including 61 % of Harris supporters and 57% of those backing Trump.

Good change/bad change

Dissatisfaction pinch nan nation's guidance typically fuels support for change. That disadvantages Harris arsenic she's tried to differentiate herself from nan Biden administration: Thirty-four percent of apt voters deliberation that if elected she'd mostly time off things arsenic they are. Of nan rest, 35% deliberation she'd shingle things up successful a bully way; 31%, successful a bad way. (Among those who expect nan position quo from Harris, nan title is simply a tight 48-45%, Trump-Harris.)

In Trump's case, by contrast, acold less spot him arsenic holding to nan position quo – conscionable 4% opportunity he'd time off things arsenic they are. But much deliberation he'd shingle things up successful a bad way, 51%, than successful a bully way, 45%.

Attributes

Harris scores amended than Trump connected individual favorability, and outpoints him, albeit by azygous digits, successful having nan characteristic and temperament it takes to service efficaciously arsenic president.

She gets an moreover divided connected favorability, 48-48% among apt voters. Trump's overmuch deeper successful individual disfavor, seen favorably by 37%, unfavorably by 60%.

Another consequence eases nan sting of unfavorability for Trump: Among apt voters who spot some him and Harris unfavorably (13% of each apt voters), Trump leads wide successful ballot preference, 61-21%. (Among those who spot only Trump unfavorably, not Harris, a minimal stock – 2% – support him anyway. Among those who spot only Harris unfavorably, nary support her.)

On characteristic and temperament, 50% opportunity Harris has what it takes to service effectively, vs. 41% who opportunity nan aforesaid astir Trump (these see nan 4% who opportunity some do); 12% opportunity neither does. As pinch favorability, Trump pushes backmost against Harris' advantage by leading, 50-25%, among those who opportunity neither has nan characteristic and temperament to service effectively. Additionally, among those who deliberation he doesn't person nan characteristic and temperament to service effectively, 11% support him anyway. (Harris is supported by 6% of those who opportunity she doesn't person nan correct characteristic and temperament.)

Ground game

With a title truthful tight, nan campaigns' closing get-out-the-vote efforts whitethorn good make nan difference. Here Harris maintains an advantage: Among each adults, 37% opportunity they've been contacted by her run asking for their vote, vs. 33% by Trump's. Among apt voters, that goes to 45 vs. 40%; and among apt voters successful nan 7 battleground states, a flimsy 67 vs. 61% – a monolithic level of contact.

Moreover, Harris' GOTV efforts look amended targeted. Nationally, among apt voters who support her, 56% opportunity they've been contacted by her campaign. Fewer Trump supporters, 49%, opportunity his run has contacted them.

Groups

Estimates among Hispanic apt voters person been unchangeable successful 3 of nan past 4 ABC/Ipsos polls, successful mid-September, early October and this one, averaging 55-41%, Harris-Trump (54-39% successful this poll). Last week's 64-34% among Hispanic apt voters was different, though it approximated nan consequence successful nan 2020 exit poll, 65-32%, Biden-Trump.

In immoderate case, nan latest consequence shows nary ill-effect of a arguable joke by a comedian astatine a Trump rally past weekend. And it leaves unfastened nan mobility of wherever Hispanic voters land; outperforming successful this usually much Democratic group would beryllium a coup for Trump, nationally and particularly successful nan battlegrounds of Arizona and Nevada.

The closest title among Hispanic voters successful exit polls since 1976 was 58-40% successful 2004; getting backmost to that, overmuch little bettering it, would beryllium a awesome result for nan GOP, which has been sorely successful request of support from group and taste number groups arsenic they person grown successful size.

Results are akin among Hispanic men and women, arsenic has been nan lawsuit previously. The displacement from past week is particularly ample among younger Hispanic people, though nan sample size is small.

Vote preferences among apt voters successful different groups are akin to those successful erstwhile ABC News/Ipsos polls, allowing for sampling error, which is larger successful smaller groups. Among them:

Harris, who's tried to pull disaffected Republicans, has 7% support successful that group, while 3% of Democrats support Trump. Harris besides wins support from 11% of conservatives, vs. Trump's 4% among liberals.
Independents – who've gone pinch nan victor successful 9 of nan past 12 statesmanlike elections – are now +5 for Harris, 49-44%, though that's not a important difference. Harris leads by 55-37% among independent women, while it's close, 49-45%, Trump-Harris, among independent men.
Harris has support from 76% of Black men successful these results (Biden won 79% of this group successful 2020) and 87% of Black women.
The title is adjacent – a non-significant Trump +4 – among achromatic women, 50-46%, a group he won by 11 points successful 2020. A Democrat hasn't won achromatic women since 1996, though Al Gore came wrong a whisker successful 2000. Trump leads by 13 points among achromatic men, 54-41%.
Harris has an particularly wide lead among women property 18-29, 69-29%. That compares pinch a non-significant Trump +5 among men that age, 49-44%.
Harris is maintaining a lead among suburban women, 55-40%, while nan title remains adjacent among suburban men, 49-46%, Trump-Harris.
The gender spread among each apt voters is 16 points – a non-significant Trump +5 among men, 50-45%, Harris +11 among women, 53-42%. That's akin to wherever it's been, arsenic good arsenic akin to nan mean (19 points) successful exit polls since 1996.
Trump has almost identical leads among non-college achromatic men (63-33%) and non-college achromatic women (62-33%) alike. Among each apt voters who don't person astatine slightest a four-year degree, it's Trump +11 points (53-42%); among assemblage graduates, Harris +22 (59-37%).
In a group that's cardinal to Republican prospects, Trump leads by 80-16% among achromatic evangelical Protestants. Among each apt voters who are not achromatic evangelical Protestants, it's Harris complete Trump, 55-40%.
The 7 battleground states, taken together, look for illustration nan nation: A 49-46%, Harris-Trump contest.

Results successful this canvass see nan astir salient progressive minor-party candidates successful states wherever they're connected nan ballot. Among each apt voters, Libertarian Chase Oliver gets 1% support, Green Party campaigner Jill Stein and independent Cornel West little than half a percent each and "someone else" 2%.

Methodology

This ABC News/Ipsos canvass was conducted online via nan probability-based Ipsos KnowledgePanel® Oct. 29-Nov. 1, 2024, successful English and Spanish, among a random nationalist sample of 3,140 adults, including 2,267 apt voters. Partisan divisions among each adults are 29-29-30%, Democrats-Republicans-independents, and 33-34-29% among apt voters.

Results person a separator of sampling errorof 2 percent points, including nan creation effect, for nan afloat sample and for apt voters, and 5 points for apt voters successful nan battleground states, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Sampling correction is not nan only root of differences successful polls.

The study was produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates, pinch sampling and information postulation by Ipsos. See specifications connected ABC News study methodology here.

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