Early election takeaways: Next president will lead fractured nation

WASHINGTON (AP) — Even pinch nan result uncertain Tuesday night, nan 2024 statesmanlike predetermination already has exposed nan depths of a fractured federation arsenic nan candidates navigated a governmental realignment based connected gender, people and property nether nan near-constant threat of misinformation and violence.

Not since nan 1968 election, erstwhile nan federation was torn complete group strife and nan Vietnam war, has nan disagreement seemed truthful apparent.

But nan biggest conclusions truthful acold whitethorn beryllium nan astir obvious.

The United States is poised to elite either its first female president successful Vice President Kamala Harris aliases its first president pinch a felony condemnation successful erstwhile president Donald Trump, whose enduring governmental spot done chaos — overmuch of it his ain making — has carried fewer governmental costs truthful far.

With votes still being counted crossed nan country, present are immoderate early takeaways:

There is simply a caller battleground representation and scrambled coalitions

White assemblage knowledgeable voters, moreover successful metropolitan areas, erstwhile leaned Republican. Working-class achromatic voters, particularly successful national households, were cardinal parts of Democrats’ coalition. Black voters — men and women — were nan bedrock of nan party, and they besides had a beardown propulsion for Latino voters. So did young voters.

Preliminary information from AP VoteCast, an expansive study of much than 115,000 voters nationwide, suggested that immoderate groups whitethorn person shifted.

One imaginable inclination could beryllium among younger voters, whose governmental lives person been shaped by nan beingness of Trump. Voters nether property 30 correspond a fraction of nan full electorate, but astir half of them supported Harris. That’s compared to nan astir 6 successful 10 who backed Biden successful 2020.

Slightly much than 4 successful 10 young voters went for Trump, up from astir one-third successful 2020.

The wide shifts person helped reorder nan statesmanlike battleground map. Florida and Ohio, accepted battlegrounds, are now firmly Republican. Yet different states successful nan Great Lakes region — Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin — remained tossups arsenic votes were being counted. And nan Southern Sun Belt authorities of North Carolina — erstwhile reliably successful nan GOP statesmanlike file — remained adjacent arsenic well.

Trump boasted passim nan autumn that he would get much support from Black men and Latino men than Harris usually does.

Harris, meanwhile, went aft much knowledgeable voters — including mean Republicans — repelled by Trump.

It whitethorn move retired that nan Trump era is not a imperishable realignment of nan awesome statement coalitions. But it’s clear that aged coalitions and longstanding understandings of really to triumph nan White House simply do not use pinch Trump successful nan mix.

A caller president will return complaint of a federation pinch heavy fissures

Whether Harris aliases Trump ends up down nan Resolute Desk, nan 47th president will lead a federation pinch deepening governmental and taste fissures and a worried electorate.

AP VoteCast recovered that astir 4 successful 10 voters considered nan economy and jobs nan astir important problem facing nan country. Roughly 2 successful 10 voters said nan apical rumor is immigration, an anchor of Trump’s argument, and astir 1 successful 10 picked abortion, a pillar of Harris’ campaign.

In a reminder of conscionable really different this predetermination has been, astir 1 successful 4 Trump voters said nan assassination attempts against him were nan astir important facet successful their vote.

But erstwhile asked what astir influenced their vote, astir half of voters cited nan future of democracy. That was higher than nan stock who answered nan aforesaid measurement astir inflation, migration aliases abortion policy. And it crosses complete nan 2 awesome parties: About two-thirds of Harris voters and astir a 3rd of Trump voters said nan early of populist was nan astir important facet successful their votes.

That’s not astonishing fixed nan realities of nan Trump era and nan rhetoric of nan campaign.

Trump refused to admit his 2020 conclusion and watched his supporters ransack nan U.S. Capitol connected Jan. 6, 2021, arsenic Congress convened to certify Democrat Joe Biden’s victory. Trump moreover mused 2 days earlier Election Day that he “shouldn’t person left” nan White House aft many times promising retribution to his governmental enemies.

Harris, by nan extremity of nan campaign, joined different critics — including immoderate of Trump’s erstwhile White House main of unit — successful describing nan erstwhile president arsenic a “fascist.” Trump, meanwhile, branded Harris a “fascist” and a “communist.”

He past told voters that nan aggregate criminal prosecutions against him beryllium that Democrats are nan existent “threat to democracy” and successful nan last days of nan run stepped up his debunked claims that U.S. elections are rigged against him.

Questions astir ‘election integrity’ persist — acknowledgment to misinformation

Trump spent nan closing days of nan predetermination aggressively promoting baseless claims astir nan integrity of nan election, insisting that would suffer only if Democrats cheat. Not agelong after, he claimed connected societal media, without evidence, that location was “a batch of talk astir monolithic CHEATING successful Philadelphia.”

There is nary reliable accusation pointing to important fraud successful this predetermination — aliases nan past one, contempt Trump’s claims to nan contrary. A wide conjugation of apical authorities and manufacture officials, galore of them Republicans, recovered that nan 2020 predetermination was nan “most secure” successful American history.”

At nan aforesaid time, a misinformation run promoting mendacious instances of predetermination fraud is spreading online.

The FBI connected Tuesday issued a statement highlighting 2 examples of its sanction and insignia being misused successful election-related videos. One of them featured a fabricated property merchandise alleges that nan guidance of 5 prisons successful Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona rigged inmate voting and colluded pinch a governmental party.

“This video is besides not authentic, and its contents are false,” nan FBI said.

Mars and Venus: Abortion, ‘bro’ authorities illuminate gender voting differences

It was nan first statesmanlike predetermination aft nan Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade and ended a woman’s nationalist correct to terminate a pregnancy. It was besides nan first clip that a Republican statesmanlike campaigner overly courted males pinch a hypermasculine approach.

And it appears to person mattered. Both Harris’ and Trump’s advisers expected a historical “gender gap” betwixt nan 2 candidates, pinch women making up a clear mostly of Harris’ supporters and men providing nan clear mostly of Trump’s total.

AP VoteCast, meanwhile, recovered that astir 1 successful 10 voters said abortion is nan apical rumor facing nan country, reinforcing nan newfound salience of an rumor that hardly registered for voters 4 years ago.

About one-quarter of voters said that abortion argumentation was nan azygous astir important facet for their vote, while adjacent to half said it was an important factor, but not nan astir important.

To beryllium sure, women person trended much Democratic successful nationalist authorities for years, while men person trended much Republican. But nan widening spread simply underscores really fractured nan American electorate has become.

The Year of Billionaires underscores nan powerfulness of money successful politics

Elon Musk, 1 of nan world’s wealthiest men, became Trump’s favourite run sidekick successful nan closing weeks. Musk relished nan spotlight, arsenic he has since he bought Twitter, changed its sanction to X and shaped nan societal media platform’s governmental personality toward his own.

Musk plowed tens of millions of dollars — a fraction of his luck — into a turnout cognition intended to thief Trump. The erstwhile president promised to make Musk a cardinal portion of his would-be 2nd administration, perchance giving him sweeping power complete national regulations and bureaucracy.

On nan Democratic side, Bill Gates and Michael Bloomberg each gave a pro-Harris ace PAC $50 million, according to nan New York Times.