In a cardinal U.S. Senate title successful Pennsylvania, Democratic incumbent Bob Casey is still ahead. His lead complete Republican Dave McCormick presently stands astatine six points, which is wrong nan separator of error.
More of nan state's voters picture Casey's positions arsenic mostly "reasonable" than "extreme" — and connected this measure, he has an advantage complete McCormick who draws much mixed views.
Casey has led successful nan title some times CBS News has antecedently polled it successful April and September.
The competitiveness of nan title comes arsenic nary astonishment because galore antecedently undecided voters looked for illustration they were person to nan GOP. While Republicans are backing McCormick successful ample numbers, there's room for betterment there. But astatine 84%, his support from Republicans still is not matching Casey's 92% among Democrats.
While Casey's lead is not safe, he has tally noticeably up of Kamala Harris, who is deadlocked pinch Donald Trump successful nan state's statesmanlike race. Compared to Harris' margins, Casey is doing particularly good pinch White, non-college men — he's losing them, but by half nan separator Harris is.
And Trump's support of McCormick whitethorn not beryllium helping much. Most apt voters opportunity it makes nary quality to whether they'll backmost McCormick. And a 3rd of independents — whom McCormick needs to dress up crushed pinch — opportunity it makes them less apt to backmost him. Overall, 7% of Pennsylvania apt voters opportunity they are not judge astir their Senate vote.
This CBS News/YouGov study was conducted pinch a statewide typical sample of 1,273 registered voters successful Pennsylvania interviewed betwixt October 22-28, 2024. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, acquisition and geographic region, based connected U.S. Census information and elector files, arsenic good arsenic to past vote. The separator of correction for registered voters is ±3.6 points.
Toplines
- In:
- Pennsylvania
- Bob Casey
- Dave McCormick
Kabir Khanna
Kabir Khanna, Ph.D., is Deputy Director, Elections & Data Analytics astatine CBS News. He conducts surveys, develops statistical models, and projects races astatine nan web Decision Desk. His scholarly investigation centers connected governmental behaviour and methodology. He holds a Ph.D. successful governmental subject from Princeton University.