AP VoteCast: How Americans voted in 2020, and what it could mean for 2024

WASHINGTON (AP) — As Election Day draws nearer, Democrat Kamala Harris is trying to support a divers conjugation of voters who were driven 4 years agone by their fierce guidance to Republican Donald Trump and worry complete a deadly pandemic.

The erstwhile president, meanwhile, is looking to deepen gains among groups, specified arsenic men without assemblage degrees, pinch whom he’s already shown strength, and erode Harris’ support among Hispanic Americans and different cardinal demographics.

AP VoteCast, a sweeping study of nan electorate, tells nan communicative of how Democrat Joe Biden won and Trump mislaid successful 2020, and what those results could mean for nan 2024 election. We’ll cognize whether nan candidates were capable to grow their coalitions — aliases build caller ones — erstwhile results from the 2024 VoteCast survey are released connected Election Day.

Biden’s triumph 4 years agone was decisive but not overwhelming, leaving Harris pinch a situation — she either needs to lucifer his wide guidelines of support, aliases style a caller winning conjugation of her own.

According to AP VoteCast, Biden won clear majorities of assemblage graduates, women and younger voters. He won astir two-thirds of municipality voters and much than half of suburbanites. He sewage nan backing of astir three-quarters of non-white voters, including astir 9 successful 10 Black voters and 6 successful 10 Hispanic voters. And successful summation to securing these groups, galore of which person historically favored Democrats, Biden besides won mean voters and trim into Trump’s support among achromatic women and young achromatic voters.

Unlike Biden, Harris has tapped into nan power astir her run by holding ample rallies. But she’s besides acknowledged nan diverseness of her conjugation pinch various Zoom meetings that person targeted demographic groups specified arsenic “Black Women for Harris,” “Black Men for Harris,” “Latinas for Harris,” “Cat Ladies for Kamala” and “Dads for Kamala,” among different groups.

She has pushed difficult to scope women by having a sit-down pinch nan TV fable Oprah Winfrey and the podcast “Call Her Daddy.” She’s made nonstop outreach pinch labour unions that are portion of nan turnout cognition successful plaything states, while also, arsenic a Howard University alum, tapping into her relationship pinch historically Black colleges, universities, fraternities and sororities.

Trump, meanwhile, held onto his guidelines of achromatic voters without a assemblage degree, agrarian voters and belief conservatives successful 2020.

He remained competitory successful 2020, contempt losing nan celebrated vote, because these are ample blocs and he won galore of them decisively. In 2020, VoteCast recovered that astir three-quarters of U.S. voters were achromatic and 55% of them backed Trump. The president secured nan support of astir 8 successful 10 achromatic evangelical Christian voters. He won 6 successful 10 voters surviving successful mini towns and agrarian areas, and was backed by astir 6 successful 10 achromatic voters without assemblage degrees.

It wasn’t capable to triumph him nan White House 4 years ago, but his conjugation is ample capable for him to stay competitory successful what will beryllium his 3rd clip connected a statesmanlike ballot. White voters without assemblage degrees represented astir 43% of each voters successful 2020, a instauration for his support that he has nurtured this twelvemonth done ample outdoor rallies and societal media posts.

Trump, too, has gone connected podcasts that thin to beryllium celebrated pinch younger men, arsenic good arsenic courting awesome tech investors specified arsenic Elon Musk, who appeared pinch him astatine a caller Butler, Pennsylvania, rally that commemorated a anterior assassination attempt. The erstwhile president has besides publically tried to tribunal Black and Hispanic voters successful his speeches. And he has besides leaned into his marque arsenic a businessman this run by launching a cryptocurrency business and selling sneakers and wristwatches, among different products.

But nan 2020 predetermination besides took spot astatine a very different infinitesimal for nan country. Voters’ apical rumor successful 2020 — nan COVID-19 pandemic — is hardly registering for Americans now. Four years ago, astir 4 successful 10 voters said nan pandemic was nan astir important rumor confronting nan state and astir three-quarters of those voters supported Biden.

The displacement successful issues could beryllium adjuvant for Trump — but it’s not a guarantee. Inflation, migration and abortion look to beryllium commanding astir attention. Even successful 2020, astir half of voters said Trump was amended capable to grip nan economy, while astir 4 successful 10 said this astir Biden. There are signs that views connected nan system are progressively shaped by people’s ain governmental views, and Harris is trying to erode nan Republicans’ past advantage connected nan system by focusing connected policies to thief mediate class households negociate costs.

The 2020 predetermination was besides successful portion a referendum connected Trump, who was past nan incumbent president. And while astir 6 successful 10 voters described their ballot arsenic chiefly for their candidate, a sizable number — astir 4 successful 10 — said they were mostly voting against a candidate.

Harris has tried to propose that, arsenic a younger campaigner who has ne'er been president, she represents change, whereas Trump is besides campaigning arsenic a alteration campaigner because he would break pinch Biden’s policies.

Many voters person signaled that they want a alteration and were initially unhappy astir a Biden-Trump rematch, a interest that was allayed somewhat erstwhile Biden departed nan title aft a disastrous June 27 statement against Trump. In December 2023, an AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll recovered that 58% of U.S. adults said they would beryllium dissatisfied if Trump was nan Republican nominee, and 56% would beryllium unhappy if Biden was nan Democratic nominee.

The desire for alteration tin beryllium seen successful higher enthusiasm among Democrats for Harris complete Biden successful AP-NORC polling since her emergence arsenic a candidate. In September, polling recovered that much voters thought nan building “would alteration nan state for nan better” described Harris, compared to Trump.

___

AP VoteCast is simply a study of nan American electorate conducted by NORC astatine nan University of Chicago for Fox News, NPR, PBS NewsHour, Univision News, USA Today Network, The Wall Street Journal and The Associated Press. The 2020 study of 110,485 voters was conducted for 8 days, concluding arsenic polls closed. Interviews were conducted successful English and Spanish. The study combines a random sample of registered voters drawn from authorities elector files; self-identified registered voters utilizing NORC’s probability based AmeriSpeak panel, which is designed to beryllium typical of nan U.S. population; and self-identified registered voters selected from nonprobability online panels. The separator of sampling correction for voters is estimated to beryllium positive aliases minus 0.4 percent points. Find much specifications astir AP VoteCast’s methodology astatine https://apnews.com/ap-votecast-faq.