AP-NORC poll finds skepticism of nationwide election tallies, especially among Republicans

WASHINGTON (AP) — The nation’s heavy partisan divisions widen to spot successful nan ballot tallies for this year’s election, arsenic a caller canvass finds that Republicans are overmuch much skeptical than Democrats that ballots will beryllium counted accurately.

Voters mostly show much distrust toward nationwide voting results compared to nan tallies done by their ain section predetermination offices, according to nan study from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.

About half of Republican registered voters person “a awesome deal” aliases “quite a bit” of spot that nan ballot will beryllium accurately counted by their section predetermination officials and astir 4 successful 10 opportunity nan aforesaid astir nan ballot count successful their state, but only astir one-quarter person astatine slightest “quite a bit” of spot successful nan nationwide count.

Republicans voters’ wide level of spot successful each three, however, is little than it is among Democratic voters. Roughly three-quarters of Democrats opportunity they person astatine slightest “quite a bit” of assurance that votes will beryllium counted accurately nationwide, successful their authorities aliases by their section predetermination officials.

This year’s predetermination marks nan first statesmanlike title since erstwhile President Donald Trump began a run of lies astir a stolen 2020 predetermination — a narrative that has undermined nationalist assurance successful predetermination results among a wide swath of blimpish voters, contempt no grounds of wide fraud.

Election experts person warned that Trump whitethorn beryllium laying nan groundwork to erstwhile again situation nan predetermination if he loses.

David Farrington, a 78-year-old blimpish successful Fort Worth, Texas, said he distrusts mail-in ballots and ballot driblet boxes, some communal targets for claims of elector fraud and predetermination conspiracies attempting to sow distrust successful predetermination results.

“It’s not nan ballot count that I’m worried about,” Farrington said. “I person each religion successful each nan precincts and their expertise to count nan ballots that are there. But nan ballots — we don’t cognize if they’re morganatic aliases not.”

Conversely, Ruth Edwards, a 28-year-old kindergarten coach successful Tampa, Florida, said she has “never seen grounds that elections are rigged.”

“It’s conscionable group who are upset astir their campaigner losing who are now claiming it’s rigged pinch nary evidence,” said Edwards, a Democrat. “It’s ridiculous.”

Voters wide are much apt to judge that votes successful nan 2024 statesmanlike predetermination will beryllium counted accurately by their section predetermination officials aliases successful their authorities than nationwide, according to nan poll. About 6 successful 10 voters person “a awesome deal” aliases “quite a bit” of assurance that votes successful nan 2024 statesmanlike predetermination will beryllium counted accurately by their section predetermination officials aliases successful their state, while astir half opportunity this astir votes counted nationwide.

About one-quarter successful each lawsuit person “a mean amount” of confidence. About 3 successful 10 opportunity they person “only a little” aliases nary assurance successful nan nationwide count, while less opportunity that astir nan tally successful their authorities aliases by section officials.

Drew Inman, a 31-year-old Republican moving successful rule enforcement successful New Jersey, said he is skeptical that votes will beryllium counted accurately astatine each levels, but particularly successful counties extracurricular his own.

“I decidedly spot my ballot to beryllium counted astatine a section level much than I spot nan nationalist ballot count,” he said. "... When you spell national, there’s a batch much group progressive and that tin create corruption.”

While ballots tin see races for national offices specified arsenic president aliases Congress, the U.S. does not tally nationalist elections arsenic different countries do. All elections are tally by nan states and administered by section predetermination offices successful thousands of townships, cities and counties.

Election officials person recognized that galore skeptical voters thin to constituent to different jurisdictions pinch mendacious claims of fraud. Some groups have tried to antagonistic this perception by emphasizing that elections successful each authorities are tally astatine nan section level.

“What is difficult is erstwhile we person nationalist elections, oftentimes group will possibly propulsion predetermination professionals nether nan autobus from different state, and that is not helpful,” said Tammy Patrick, a erstwhile predetermination charismatic now pinch nan National Association of Election Officials.

Older voters person much religion successful nan ballot count astatine each levels than younger voters, including nan count conducted by section predetermination officials. About half of 18- to 29-year-old voters person astatine slightest “quite a bit” of assurance that votes will beryllium counted accurately successful their authorities aliases by their section predetermination officials, compared to astir 7 successful 10 voters ages 60 and older.

The spread is smaller for nan nationwide ballot count, though: About 4 successful 10 18- to 29-year-old voters person astatine slightest “quite a bit” of confidence, compared to astir half of voters ages 60 and older.

Bill Sanchez, a 29-year-old criminal defense lawyer successful Monroe County, Pennsylvania, said older voters person been watching and participating successful nan predetermination process for longer, giving them much clip to build trust.

“Younger voters person little acquisition voting and person spent a batch of their lives surrounded by this benignant of misinformation that we’re seeing much and much of,” Sanchez said. "... It conscionable sets nan guidelines for younger voters to beryllium much distrustful.”

About 6 successful 10 Republicans opportunity group voting who are not eligible is simply a awesome problem successful U.S. elections, compared to 2 successful 10 Democrats. Democrats and Republicans disagree astir sharply complete whether message ballots that are returned via nan U.S. Postal Service aliases a driblet box will beryllium counted accurately. About 6 successful 10 Democrats are “extremely” aliases “very confident” that message ballots that are returned by these methods will beryllium counted accurately, compared to astir 1 successful 10 Republicans.

Democrats, meanwhile, are overmuch much concerned astir elector suppression than Republicans. About half of Democrats opportunity elector suppression is simply a awesome problem, compared to astir one-third of Republicans

And astir 4 successful 10 voters are concerned astir different countries tampering pinch U.S. voting systems aliases predetermination results, which is down somewhat from erstwhile nan mobility was past asked successful February 2020. This is thing that independent voters are astatine slightest somewhat much apt to beryllium worried astir than Democrats aliases Republicans.

Sanchez, nan lawyer from Pennsylvania, said he is much concerned astir elector suppression than wide fraud aliases ballots being miscounted and called for nan description of early voting and message ballots to “make voting arsenic accessible arsenic possible.” He besides worries astir nan imaginable that mendacious claims of elector fraud could incite unit and unrest, and said he hopes predetermination officials’ attempts to pass voters up of nan predetermination will help.

“There’s a batch of misinformation and disinformation astir predetermination information from bad religion actors who are trying to build distrust and return advantage of nan truth that group don’t ever understand everything astir nan process,” Sanchez said. “And erstwhile we don’t understand things, we extremity up fearing it.”

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Fernando reported from Chicago. Associated Press writer Christina A. Cassidy successful Atlanta contributed to this report.

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The canvass of 1,072 adults was conducted Oct. 11-14, 2024, utilizing a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to beryllium typical of nan U.S. population. The separator of sampling correction for registered voters is positive aliases minus 4.2 percent points.

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