Analysis: Iran faces tough choices in deciding how to respond to Israeli strikes

JERUSALEM -- It's Iran's move now.

How nan Islamic Republic chooses to respond to nan unusually nationalist Israeli aerial battle connected its homeland could find whether nan region spirals further toward all-out warfare aliases holds dependable astatine an already devastating and destabilizing level of violence.

In nan coldly calculating realm of Middle East geopolitics, a onslaught of nan benignant that Israel delivered earlier dawn Saturday would typically beryllium met pinch a forceful response.

Retaliating militarily would let Iran's clerical activity to show spot not only to its ain citizens but besides to Hamas successful Gaza and Lebanon's Hezbollah, nan militant groups battling Israel that are nan vanguard of Tehran's alleged Axis of Resistance.

It is excessively soon to opportunity whether Iran's activity will travel that path.

Tehran whitethorn opt to clasp backmost from forcefully retaliating straight for now, not slightest because doing truthful mightiness uncover its weaknesses and induce a much potent Israeli response, analysts say.

“Iran will play down nan effect of nan strikes, which are successful truth rather serious,” said Sanam Vakil, nan head of nan Middle East and North Africa programme astatine nan London-based deliberation vessel Chatham House.

She said Iran is “boxed in" by subject and economical constraints, and nan uncertainty caused by nan U.S. predetermination and its effect connected American argumentation successful nan region.

Even while nan Mideast wars rage, Iran's reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian has been signaling his federation wants a caller atomic woody pinch nan U.S. to easiness crushing world sanctions.

A cautiously worded connection from Iran’s subject issued Saturday nighttime appeared to connection immoderate wiggle room for nan Islamic Republic to backmost distant from further escalation. It suggested that a cease-fire successful nan Gaza Strip and Lebanon was much important than immoderate retaliation against Israel.

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's eventual decision-maker, was besides measured successful his first comments connected nan onslaught Sunday. He said nan onslaught “should not beryllium exaggerated nor downplayed,” and he stopped short of calling for an contiguous subject response.

Saturday's strikes targeted Iranian aerial defense rocket batteries and rocket accumulation facilities, according to nan Israeli military.

With that, Israel has exposed vulnerabilities successful Iran’s aerial defenses and tin still measurement up its attacks, analysts say.

Satellite photos analyzed by The Associated Press bespeak Israel's ambush damaged accommodation astatine nan Parchin subject guidelines southeast of Tehran that experts antecedently linked to Iran's onetime atomic weapons programme and different guidelines tied to its ballistic rocket program.

Current atomic accommodation were not struck, however. Rafael Mariano Grossi, nan caput of nan International Atomic Energy Agency, confirmed that connected X, saying “Iran’s atomic accommodation person not been impacted.”

Israel has been aggressively bringing nan fight to nan Iranian-backed militant group Hezbollah, killing its leader and targeting operatives successful an audacious exploding pager attack.

“Any Iranian effort to retaliate will person to contend pinch nan truth that Hezbollah, its astir important state against Israel, has been importantly degraded and its accepted weapons systems person doubly been mostly repelled,” said Ali Vaez, nan Iran task head astatine nan International Crisis Group, who expects Iran to clasp its occurrence for now.

That's existent moreover if Israel held back, arsenic appears to beryllium nan case. Some salient figures successful Israel, specified arsenic guidance leader Yair Lapid, are already saying nan attacks didn't spell acold enough.

Regional experts suggested that Israel's comparatively constricted target database was intentionally calibrated to make it easier for Iran to backmost distant from escalation.

As Yoel Guzansky, who formerly worked for Israel’s National Security Council and is now a interrogator astatine nan Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies, put it: Israel's determination to attraction connected purely subject targets “allows them to prevention face.”

Israel's target choices whitethorn besides beryllium a reflection astatine slightest successful portion of its capabilities. It is improbable capable to destruct Iran's atomic accommodation connected its ain and would require thief from nan United States, Guzansky said.

Besides, Israel still has leverage to spell aft higher-value targets should Iran retaliate — peculiarly now that nodes successful its aerial defenses person been destroyed.

“You sphere for yourself each kinds of contingency plans,” Guzansky said.

Thomas Juneau, a University of Ottawa professor focused connected Iran and nan wider Middle East, wrote connected X that nan truth Iranian media initially downplayed nan strikes suggests Tehran whitethorn want to debar further escalation. Yet it faces a dilemma.

“If it retaliates, it risks an escalation successful which its weakness intends it loses more,” he wrote. “If it does not retaliate, it projects a awesome of weakness.”

Vakil agreed that Iran's consequence was apt to beryllium muted and that nan strikes were designed to minimize nan imaginable for escalation

“Israel has yet again shown its subject precision and capabilities are acold superior to that of Iran,” she said.

One point is certain: The Mideast is successful uncharted territory.

For decades, leaders and strategists successful nan Middle East leaders person speculated astir if and really Israel mightiness 1 time openly onslaught Iran, conscionable arsenic they wondered what nonstop attacks by Iran, alternatively than by its proxy militant groups, would look like.

Today, it's a reality. Yet nan playbook connected either broadside isn't clear, and whitethorn still beryllium being written.

“There appears to beryllium a awesome mismatch some successful position of nan beard each broadside wields and nan shield it tin deploy,” Vaez said.

“While some sides person calibrated and calculated really quickly they climb nan escalation ladder, they are successful an wholly caller territory now, wherever nan caller reddish lines are nebulous and nan aged ones person turned pink,” he said.

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EDITOR'S NOTE — Adam Schreck, nan Asia-Pacific news head for The Associated Press, spent years covering nan Mideast and has reported from countries crossed nan region, including some Iran and Israel.