American Catholic voters present complex opportunities for Trump, Harris: Academics

Catholic voters person ever been a cardinal voting bloc successful each statesmanlike election, pinch candidates vying difficult for their support.

And this year, nan conflict for their votes has gotten fierce arsenic erstwhile President Donald Trump has many times claimed, without evidence, that Vice President Kamala Harris has been anti-Catholic.

While Harris has not said nan aforesaid astir Trump, she has sent a connection to Catholic voters that her policies are successful statement pinch their societal and governmental views and priorities. But successful reality, academics who person been studying religion's domiciled successful authorities show ABC News that it's not easy to pin a azygous explanation connected nan nation's Catholics.

Sister Mary Scullion, co-founder of Project Home, speaks astatine nan motorboat of nan Nuns connected nan Bus & Friends Vote Our Future nationalist autobus circuit successful Philadelphia, Pa., Sep. 30, 2024.

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"It's really absorbing that nan Catholic Church is astir apt 1 of nan fewer places wherever you find group pinch different perspectives sitting together astatine Sunday Mass," Margaret Susan Thompson, a professor of history astatine Syracuse University's Maxwell School of Citizenship & Public Affairs, told ABC News.

Thompson and others said that if past predetermination results are immoderate indication, Catholic turnout and nan choices they make astatine nan polls will dangle connected a assortment of factors.

Changing demographics show schism successful voting patterns

Thompson, who has been researching Catholic ballot trends, said that, arsenic a whole, Catholics person been voting much Republican successful nan past 44 years aft abortion became a awesome run rumor for nan Christians arsenic a whole.

But complete those decades, she noted that nan constitution of American Catholics has besides changed arsenic nan number of non-white Catholics has grown.

Since 2007, nan stock of American Catholics who are achromatic has dropped by 8 percent points, while nan stock who are Hispanic has accrued by 4 points, according to information from nan Pew Research Center.

Jamie Manson, President, Catholics for Choice, speaks astatine an arena connected behalf of nan complete 400,000 group who signed petitions of support from UltraViolet, NARAL, MoveOn, MomsRising, Catholics for Choice and National Council of Jewish Women to impulse nan Senate to protect abortion authorities successful Washington, DC, Sep. 29, 2021.

Paul Morigi/Getty Images for MoveOn

"It has changed nan representation a lot," Thompson said. "Latino Catholics person risen successful numbers successful nan South and successful plaything states for illustration Arizona and person brought their ain perspectives connected their religion and their beliefs."

Ryan Burge, subordinate professor of governmental subject astatine Eastern Illinois University, who has compiled information connected nan voting patterns of nan county's belief groups, agreed.

"The Catholic ballot is afloat of contradictions," Burge said. "There is simply a batch of cross-pressures that they face. They whitethorn beryllium white, but besides a national member. They whitethorn beryllium against LGTBQ authorities but want amended migration rights."

Deacon John Stanley of nan Catholic Church and Connie Stanley believe and activity astatine cars while holding signs successful support of nan Vote Yes to a Constitutional Amendment connected Abortion on 135th Street successful Olathe, Ka., Aug. 01, 2022.

Kyle Rivas/Getty Images

Burge told ABC News that nan accrued diverseness among Catholics has besides reflected a displacement successful nan statesmanlike races.

In 2020, 56% of Catholic voters voted Republican, according to information he compiled from Harvard University's Cooperative Election Study. However, erstwhile nan organization was surgery down into race, 59% of achromatic Catholics voted Republican past predetermination while it was only 31% of non-white Catholics voted for nan GOP.

"We spot nan aforesaid group trends for astir belief groups," he explained.

Not successful communion pinch nan Catholic Church's teaching

Thompson said nan diverseness besides extends to Catholics' governmental leanings.

For example, Pew recovered that 61% of each Catholics find abortion should beryllium ineligible successful each aliases astir cases. An ABC News/Ipsos canvass recovered 55% of Catholics would alternatively nan national authorities reconstruct abortion entree arsenic it was earlier nan Supreme Court overruled Roe v. Wade.

"Just because nan level says 'this is right, this is wrong' doesn't mean that each Catholic is going to travel their lead," she said.

Burge besides noted that taste ties extracurricular of one's belief person factored successful individual leanings of definite Catholic groups.

For example, he noted that information has shown that Latino Catholics are little successful favour of promoting LGBTQ authorities and socialism ideals than their achromatic and Black counterparts.

"I deliberation they are pulled successful 2 directions," he said of Latino Catholics. "Traditionally they've been Democratic and we've seen them successful a mostly still ballot Democratic but they've ever been culturally conservative. I deliberation that's wherever you're seeing nan displacement successful immoderate Latino circles voting Republican because of nan party's messaging connected those issues."

A "Catholics ballot pro-life" banner stands successful beforehand of St. Anthony Church successful Brooksville, Fla., Sep. 26, 2020.

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A caller ABCNews/Ipsos canvass recovered that Catholic apt voters are intimately divided successful ballot preference, 51-48% Trump-Harris.

"I deliberation they look to beryllium a much mean voting bloc. I don't deliberation they tin beryllium taken for granted," Burge said.

Trump slams Harris complete Catholic ballot connected nan run trail

Since nan commencement of nan predetermination season, nan Trump, Biden and Harris campaigns person been trying to tribunal various belief groups.

Trump, successful particular, has been sounding disconnected successful rallies, societal media and interviews against Harris, calling her anti-Catholic. He's claimed successful a Truth Social station that she mislaid nan Catholic ballot owed to her stance connected reproductive authorities and that she was "persecuting" nan group.

"Any Catholic that votes for Comrade Kamala Harris should person their caput examined," he said successful a Truth Social station successful September.

Harris has seldom made nonstop comments astir nan Catholic ballot during nan run and did not be nan annual Al Smith Dinner hosted by nan Archdiocese of New York, saying it was owed to schedule conflicts.

Democratic statesmanlike nominee Vice President Kamala Harris speaks connected a prerecorded video connection during nan yearly Alfred E. Smith Foundation Dinner astatine nan New York Hilton Midtown connected Oct. 17, 2024 successful New York City.

Brendan Mcdermid/Reuters

Even though she was nan first statesmanlike campaigner not to be nan meal successful 40 years, she provided a video reside that included a skit pinch "Saturday Night Live" alum Molly Shannon.

"The Gospel of Luke tells america that religion has nan powerfulness to radiance a ray connected those surviving successful acheronian and to guideline our feet successful nan way of peace. In nan tone of tonight’s dinner, fto america recommit to reaching crossed divides, to activity knowing and communal ground," she said.

Republican statesmanlike nominee, erstwhile U.S. President Donald Trump points to Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer arsenic he speaks during nan yearly Alfred E. Smith Foundation Dinner astatine nan New York Hilton Midtown connected Oct. 17, 2024 successful New York City.

Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images

Trump, successful breaking pinch nan dinner's soft-hearted roasting, continued his attacks connected Harris astatine nan dinner.

"You can't do what I conscionable saw connected that screen, but my force feels for illustration she does not person to beryllium here, which is profoundly disrespectful to nan arena and successful peculiar to our awesome Catholic community. Very disrespectful," he said.

Rhetoric does small to sway Catholic voters

Despite nan media attention, nan experts said that Trump's rhetoric and back-and-forth pinch Harris complete nan Catholic ballot isn't going to move nan needle.

Thompson said that location are very fewer undecided voters near and astir voters' preferences are locked successful astatine this point.

She besides noted Trump's attacks and messaging are nary different from nan connection he's utilized for different belief groups, specified arsenic Jewish voters, Latino voters and Black voters.

"It's his go-to phrase: 'They should person their caput checked,'" she said.

Thompson besides noted that nan sentiment applies to nan Vatican.

Pope Francis weighed successful connected nan predetermination successful September and appeared to return a mediate ground, claiming "One must take nan lesser of 2 evils."

"Who is nan lesser of 2 evils? That woman aliases that gentleman? I don’t know," he told reporters during a news conference.

Pope Francis looks connected during nan play wide assemblage astatine St Peter's quadrate successful The Vatican, Oct. 23, 2024 .

Tiziana Fabi/AFP via Getty Images

Francis did not straight sanction Trump aliases Harris aliases either governmental party, but moreover while noting nan church's guidance to abortion, he besides emphasized a much mean stance connected societal issues.

"To nonstop migrants away, to time off them wherever you want, to time off them … it’s thing terrible, location is evil there. To nonstop distant a kid from nan womb of nan mother is an assassination, because location is life. We must speak astir these things clearly,” he said.

Thompson said that nan pope has contributed to a awesome schism among Catholics, pinch much blimpish members dismissing his progressive stances connected LGBTQ authorities and nan situation and much wide members calling him retired for not shifting nan church's stance connected reproductive rights.

"There is selective listening to nan pope by everyone," she said. "I don't deliberation that his non-endorsement is really going to alteration people's minds, either."

Burge said that, astatine nan extremity of nan day, nan moments that are going to impact nan Catholic ballot are successful nan rhetoric and actions of nan candidates successful nan last days.

"Politicians person ever had a problem speaking astir belief without sounding pandering," he said. "The nationalist conscionable cares astir wherever they guidelines and really they are going to tackle nan issues they consciousness are important."