America's European allies face challenging times, whoever wins the presidential election

BERLIN -- The United States' European friends are bracing for an America that's little willing successful them nary matter who wins nan statesmanlike predetermination — and for aged traumas and caller problems if Donald Trump returns to nan White House.

The predetermination comes much than 2 1/2 years into Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, successful which Washington has made nan azygous biggest publication to Kyiv's defense. There are mobility marks complete whether that would proceed nether Trump, and really committed he would beryllium to NATO friends successful general.

A triumph by Vice President Kamala Harris could beryllium expected to bring a continuation of existent policy, though pinch Republican guidance and increasing warfare fatigue among nan U.S. nationalist location are concerns successful Europe that support would wane.

Trump's appetite for imposing tariffs connected U.S. partners besides is causing interest successful a Europe already struggling pinch sluggish economical growth. But it's not conscionable nan anticipation of a 2nd Trump presidency that has nan continent anxious astir tougher times ahead.

European officials judge U.S. priorities dishonesty elsewhere, nary matter who wins. The Middle East is apical of President Joe Biden’s database correct now, but nan semipermanent privilege is China.

“The centrality of Europe to U.S. overseas argumentation is different than it was successful Biden’s formative years,” said Rachel Tausendfreund, a elder investigation chap astatine nan German Council connected Foreign Relations successful Berlin. “And successful that way, it is existent that Biden is nan past trans-Atlantic president.”

The U.S. will proceed to pivot toward Asia, she said. “That intends Europe has to measurement up. Europe has to go a much tin partner and besides go much tin of managing its ain information area.”

Germany’s defense minister, Boris Pistorius, remarked erstwhile he signed a new defense pact pinch NATO state Britain that nan U.S. will attraction much connected nan Indo-Pacific region, “so it is only a mobility of, will they do overmuch little successful Europe because of that aliases only a small spot less.”

Ian Lesser, a distinguished chap astatine nan German Marshall Fund successful Brussels, said that “above all, Europe is looking for predictability from Washington,” and that's successful short proviso successful a turbulent world successful which immoderate management will look different demands connected its attention. “But nan imaginable for disruption is intelligibly greater successful nan lawsuit of a imaginable Trump administration.”

“There is an presumption of basal continuity” nether Harris that's astir apt well-founded, he said, pinch galore group who person shaped argumentation nether Biden apt to remain. “It's very overmuch nan known world, moreover if nan strategical situation produces uncertainties of its own.”

While some nan U.S. and Europe person been progressively focused connected title pinch Asia, nan ongoing warfare successful Europe intends “the imaginable costs of a displacement distant from European information connected nan American broadside are very overmuch higher coming than they mightiness person been a fewer years ago,” Lesser said. Europe's expertise to woody pinch that depends connected really quickly it happens, he said.

Europe's lagging defense spending irked U.S. administrations of some parties for years, though NATO members including Germany raised their crippled aft nan 2022 penetration of Ukraine. NATO forecasts that 23 of nan 32 friends will meet its target of spending 2% aliases much of gross home merchandise connected defense this year, compared to only 3 a decade ago.

During his 2017-2021 term, Trump threatened to wantonness “ delinquent ” countries if they weren’t paying their “bills.” In campaigning this time, he suggested that Russia could do what it wants pinch them.

His bluster has undermined spot and worried countries nearest to an progressively unpredictable Russia, for illustration Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland.

Europeans spot nan warfare successful Ukraine arsenic an existential situation successful a measurement nan United States yet whitethorn not, moreover pinch immoderate signs of warfare fatigue emerging successful Europe itself.

If Trump wins, “there's each denotation that he has nary liking successful continuing to support Ukraine successful this war” and will push quickly for immoderate benignant of cease-fire aliases bid statement woody that Kyiv whitethorn not for illustration and Europe whitethorn not beryllium fresh for, Tausendfreund said. “And location is besides conscionable nary measurement that Europe tin capable nan subject spread near if nan U.S. were to retreat support.”

“Even pinch a Harris management location is simply a growing, changing statement — frankly, connected some sides of nan Atlantic — astir what comes adjacent successful nan warfare successful Ukraine, what is nan extremity game," Lesser said.

Biden emphasized nan request to enactment nan people successful Ukraine during a little recent sojourn to Berlin erstwhile he conferred pinch German, French and British leaders.

“We cannot fto up. We must prolong our support,” Biden said. “In my view, we must support going until Ukraine wins a conscionable and durable peace.”

The times he has lived done person taught him that “we should ne'er underestimate nan powerfulness of democracy, ne'er underestimate nan worth of alliances,” nan 81-year-old Biden added.

German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, who bestowed Germany's highest grant connected Biden for his work to trans-Atlantic relations, hopes Biden's compatriots are listening.

“In nan months to come, I dream that Europeans remember: America is indispensable for us,” he said. “And I besides dream that Americans remember: Your friends are indispensable for you. We are much than conscionable ‘other countries’ successful nan world —we are partners, we are friends.”

Whoever wins nan White House, nan coming years could beryllium bumpy.

“Whatever nan result adjacent week, half of nan state will spell distant angry,” Lesser said, noting there's “every prospect” of divided authorities successful Washington. “Europe is going to look a very chaotic and sometimes dysfunctional America.”

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Associated Press writer Lorne Cook successful Brussels contributed to this report.