Senate Democrats are heading into Tuesday's elections facing nan conflict of their lives: defending a 51-49 mostly pinch a representation truthful formidable that Republicans person called it their champion opportunity successful a decade to summation ground.
Republicans person already each but gotten that down to 50-50, pinch West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin, an independent who caucuses pinch Democrats, retiring, apt assuring that GOP Gov. Jim Justice will switch him successful 1 of nan deepest reddish states successful nan country.
Now, Democrats are fundamentally needing to propulsion a consecutive flush to support themselves successful nan majority, leaning connected respective battle-hardened incumbents and House members to support red- and purple-state seats successful their file while besides eyeing an highly mini group of highly difficult flip opportunities.
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And moreover if they win successful defending each nan bluish seats, Democrats whitethorn still find themselves successful nan number if erstwhile President Donald Trump defeats Vice President Kamala Harris, pinch vice statesmanlike nominee JD Vance serving arsenic nan GOP tiebreaker.
Here are 5 Senate races to watch Tuesday that will thief find Senate power and nan sliver of races wherever Democrats are connected offense.
Montana
Democratic Sen. Jon Tester, a three-term incumbent, has emerged from reliable races before, contempt moving successful unfriendly territory. But his title for a 4th word whitethorn beryllium his toughest situation yet.
Tester is moving against businessman and erstwhile Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy, a able campaigner who was highly sought aft by Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell and Sen. Steve Daines, nan chair of Senate Republicans' run limb who has made it his ngo to unseat Tester, his chap Montanan.
The polls are daunting for Tester -- he's down by much than 5 points successful 538's polling average, and he hasn't led successful nan metric since July 9.
Tester has leaned connected his authenticity arsenic a seven-fingered husbandman and third-generation Montanan to propose that he hears nan concerns of his constituents and is fighting for them. He's besides hoping that an abortion referendum connected nan ballot will thief boost turnout among Democrats.
Sheehy, meanwhile, has tally arsenic a businessman who accuses Tester of being retired of touch pinch nan progressively Republican authorities and Washington wide being dysfunctional. He's faced a slew of attacks from Tester, including questions complete really he suffered a gunshot coiled to his forearm and nan truth that he's not primitively from Montana, a authorities that has agelong prioritized a consciousness of spot but has progressively seen able out-of-staters bargain land.
Still, Tester is thought to beryllium facing reliable likelihood contempt his past successful high-wire acts. Trump won nan authorities by complete 16 points successful 2020, and while Tester is anticipated to tally up of Harris, specified a separator astatine nan apical of nan summons could beryllium insurmountable for nan incumbent senator.
Unless Democrats tin prime disconnected a GOP-held seat, a Tester nonaccomplishment would apt manus Republicans nan Senate majority.
Ohio
Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is besides moving for his 4th word successful a authorities that has gone from purple to red, imperiling his chances of reelection.
Brown is moving arsenic a blue-collar populist, sporting a gravelly sound and often wrinkled suit that stress his everyman bona fides. A vocal national protagonist and force of immoderate world waste and acquisition agreements earlier it was cool, Brown has consistently overperformed pinch nan benignant of achromatic voters without a assemblage grade who utilized to ballot Democratic but person defected en masse to Trump.
He's besides leaned heavy connected nan rumor of abortion aft 57% of Ohioans supported a referendum past twelvemonth protecting entree to nan procedure. He's besides launched ads featuring support from rule enforcement arsenic a measurement to abstracted himself from nationalist Democrats' brand.
Brown is facing Bernie Moreno, a Colombian migrant and businessman. Moreno has worked difficult -- and spent millions -- to formed Brown arsenic excessively wide for a authorities that went for Trump by 8 points twice. He, too, has focused connected societal issues, including abortion and transgender athletes participating successful female sports.
Moreno has ne'er led successful nan 538 polling average, but he has importantly trim into Brown's edge, now trailing by conscionable 1.2 points aft being down by 6.5 points astatine nan extremity of July. Moreno has been aided by a flood of extracurricular spending from Republicans successful Washington who are looking to build arsenic ample of a mostly arsenic possible, peculiarly arsenic Montana appears to beryllium progressively retired of scope for Democrats.
Here too, nan statesmanlike separator is anticipated to play a important role. Like Tester, Brown is expected to tally up of Harris. But if Trump expands his separator of triumph a 3rd clip around, Brown could look important headwinds.
Michigan
Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow's status opened a apical opportunity for Republicans to capable a purple-state vacancy.
The title pits Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin against erstwhile GOP Rep. Mike Rogers. Slotkin has a 3.5-point separator successful 538's polling average, arsenic good arsenic a fundraising advantage, but nan deficiency of an incumbent makes nan title peculiarly appetizing for Republicans.
Slotkin has leaned connected her past arsenic a CIA expert who deployed to Iraq, Rogers' votes against abortion protections and her crossover appeal, including her endorsement from erstwhile Rep. Liz Cheney.
Rogers, meanwhile, has embraced Trump aft past disapproval and attacked Slotkin complete transgender athletes and worries complete nan manufacturing of electrical vehicles (Slotkin repeats that she lives connected a ungraded roadworthy but wants nan "next generation" of vehicles to beryllium made successful nan state).
A monolithic X facet successful some nan statesmanlike and Senate races successful nan authorities is nan warfare successful Gaza, which has infuriated Michigan's important Arab organization and risks leaving voters displeased pinch and disaffected from President Joe Biden and Democratic candidates this year.
Pennsylvania
Democratic Sen. Bob Casey, a three-term incumbent, is simply a fixture successful Pennsylvania -- his begetter was a erstwhile politician and nan Casey sanction rings retired crossed nan state.
However, he'll look a well-heeled force successful Dave McCormick, a erstwhile hedge money executive who was heavy recruited to tally this year. He ran successful 2022, but mislaid to Dr. Mehmet Oz successful nan GOP primary. Oz went connected to suffer to now-Sen. John Fetterman, D.
Pennsylvania is location to fierce and competitory presidential-level fighting and nan Senate title is nary different. Casey is up by 2.6 points successful nan 538 polling average, though that has shrunk from a much than 8-point lead successful August.
Casey and Democrats person attacked McCormick complete abortion, his residence successful Connecticut and past business ties to China. McCormick, meanwhile, has embraced Trump aft bumping heads pinch him successful 2022 aft he endorsed Oz, and accused Casey of being retired of touch pinch Pennsylvanians and excessively entrenched successful Washington, pushing voters to "make a change" connected Tuesday.
Arizona
Dealmaking Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, an independent who caucuses pinch Democrats, announced successful March that she wouldn't tally for a 2nd term, mounting up a premier flip opportunity for Republicans.
However, Kari Lake, nan grounded 2022 gubernatorial nominee and GOP Senate nominee this year, is connected her backmost foot.
Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego has held a accordant lead successful 538's polling average moreover arsenic Trump is thought to person an separator successful nan authorities connected nan statesmanlike level.
The title represents a uncommon lawsuit of debased sanction nickname being advantageous, peculiarly successful a authorities for illustration Arizona that values pragmatism.
Gallego has an extended past arsenic a progressive, but he wasn't a peculiarly well-known lawmaker extracurricular of his district, offering him a chance to rebrand himself arsenic a moderate, including supporting things for illustration accrued separator enforcement aft hammering Trump's separator wall.
Lake, meanwhile, became a MAGA stone prima successful 2022, peculiarly aft she panned "McCain Republicans" and refused to judge her nonaccomplishment successful nan gubernatorial title that year. She has sought to mean this year, including reaching retired to erstwhile Gov. Doug Ducey, but she has a much cemented image of a firebrand than Gallego, making it difficult to entreaty to centrists successful and astir Phoenix who clasp nan cardinal to triumph successful Arizona.
She still has not conceded nan results of her 2022 title aliases Trump's 2020 loss.
The title could connection cardinal clues arsenic to really Democrats could support Latino voters successful their file amid wide worries of defections this year. Gallego, of Colombian and Mexican descent and a combat veteran, has said that he has talked to Latino voters who opportunity they'll support some him and Trump.
The title will besides service arsenic a barometer of sorts connected nan separator successful nan wide Senate. Republicans will rue a missed opportunity if Gallego wins, but if Lake is capable to propulsion a triumph off, it apt intends that Republicans person had a bully nighttime elsewhere too.
Democrats' violative opportunities
Democrats are playing successful a mini fistful of Republican-held seats, though they look steep likelihood successful flipping immoderate of them.
GOP Sens. Ted Cruz of Texas and Rick Scott of Florida are facing disconnected against Rep. Colin Allred and erstwhile Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, respectively. FiveThirtyEight's polling averages show some Democrats wrong striking distance, and nan nationalist statement has begun spending money there, peculiarly successful Texas. However, some reddish states are reliable territory for Democrats to summation crushed in, peculiarly successful a statesmanlike year.
Independent Dan Osborn is besides challenging GOP Sen. Deb Fischer successful Nebraska. Osborn has insisted he won't caucus pinch either statement successful nan Senate, but Republicans person worked difficult to overgarment him arsenic a Democrat successful centrist's clothing. Polling indicates a tight race, but Osborn excessively faces headwinds successful a authorities pinch a dense Republican lean.